The declining political prospects of Imran Khan
One year ago, I wrote a piece asserting that Imran Khan was peaking too soon.
I argued in part that the PTI’s electability is exaggerated because most of its support lies in cities, which contain only a third of Pakistan’s population. In several decades, when a majority of Pakistanis are living in cities, the story could be different. But not now.
Predictably, I was pilloried by Khan’s feisty followers. “Give us a break,” one of them wrote to me. “Imran Khan shall Insha Allah rise, and no anti-Imran propaganda would work.”
Alas, based on events of the last few weeks, it may be more accurate to say that Khan’s star has already risen — and is now in danger of falling.
One can’t deny his popularity, as evidenced by those monster jalsa turnouts in Lahore and Karachi, and by the polls that find the PTI to be Pakistan’s most popular political party. Khan is a hero to young, urban-based, middle-class, conservative Pakistanis — a rapidly growing demographic much more representative of Pakistan than the small cosmopolitan elite most familiar to Washington.
Khan’s popularity actually extends beyond urban Pakistan — to the Beltway and Big Apple. I’ve met numerous Khan aficionados within the US-based Pakistan Diaspora, including angry yet articulate students who pepper me with probing questions when I make presentations on university campuses. If Khan were to give a public talk in Washington, he’d attract hundreds of Pakistani Americans — and not just because of his celebrity status (incidentally, Pervez Musharraf, far from Mr. Popularity and dismissed by many as a has-been, drew an audience of 400 at a Wilson Center lecture in 2011).
But let’s consider what’s happened of late. Where has Khan gone? He’s been relatively quiet, and especially since his anti-drones peace caravan. He continues to score some media interviews, though mainly in Western outlets. The only major headlines he has generated of late came from his unpleasant encounter with US customs officials during a visit to Canada.
Has Khan decided to lay low for a while because of the death threat he received from the Taliban this summer? I seriously doubt it; Khan isn’t the type to cower in the face of such threats (when I met him several years ago, it was clear that he exudes strength — from his large frame and booming voice to supreme confidence).
More likely, he’s taking some time out to rethink his problematic political strategy and platform.
After all, while he has attracted some big names to the PTI (think Asad Umar and Shah Mahmood Qureshi), the party has suffered some recent defections (think Shireen Mazari). Additionally, anti-Khan commentary has been especially vociferous of late, as exemplified by a devastating takedown on Dawn.com.
Some of the criticism he’s receiving is misplaced. Sure, ending corruption in 90 days is outlandishly idealistic. But let’s face it: No politician campaigns on substance; he or she campaigns on sound bytes and rhetoric (I dare anyone to uncover one second of substance from the just-concluded $6 billion US presidential campaign).
It is Khan’s views about militancy — and how to address it — that deserve criticism. The Malala tragedy crystallises the absurdity (and danger) of his seemingly conciliatory position toward the sickeningly brutal TTP. Pakistan’s overwhelming, broad-based public condemnation of the TTP after its attack on the young schoolgirl — a far cry from the responses to the assassinations of Salman Taseer and Shahbaz Bhatti or, for that matter, to any sectarian killing — suggests that Khan’s position is sorely at odds with public opinion.
However, it’s the Pakistani political system — the very institution he vows to radically reform — that most threatens his quest for political power. It is a patronage-driven machine that offers practically no electoral victory hopes for political parties not named PPP or PML.
The PPP may be unpopular, but I can’t imagine one of its leaders not becoming the next prime minister. Certainly the PTI will win seats in next year’s election, but not enough to form a government (unless, of course, the security establishment helps propel Khan to power — a prediction heard less often now than earlier this year, at least here in Washington).
This is why it’s wrong to compare Khan to Barack Obama, as some observers have done. Sure, they’re both candidates of hope. But Obama belongs to one of his country’s established political parties; Khan does not. A more appropriate American equivalent to Khan would be Ralph Nader — an incorruptible third-party politician with strident views and young, fervent supporters. Yet he has never come close to winning an election.
Before the PTI trolls release their venom on me, let’s be clear: Khan could well become prime minister one day. Urbanisation threatens the rural-based bastions of the PML-N and PPP, and an opening could eventually emerge for ascendant parties like the PTI.
But that’s a discussion for another day.
The author is the Senior Program Associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. You can reach him at michael.kugelman@wilsoncenter.org
The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.
Michael you are wrong, You have failed to understand the broad sentiment on Malala Issue and the depth of the Khan’s support. His young followers have been energised yet once again on fulfilment of his promise to conduct Party elections and get out of the family politics.
What Malala issue? It is a foreign plot. When will Pakistanis figure out the obvious.
Though I am an Indian and have no right to say anything about Pakistani politics and the leaders they elect as their prime minister or president, but I strongly feel that Imran Khan is the right person to take up the role and bring Pakistan from its current chaos.
I have seen many of his interviews and speeches on you tube, its really good to see that Pakistan still has such good leaders who can speak their mind unlike how Zardari and Nawaz Sharieff do under American pressure, there by I hope to see Imran taking the charge of his country next year Inshallah.
All the best Mr.Khan (Y)…
selecting the same people again is worst than committing suicide,its do or die situation,vote for a change,vote foe PTI or die
Only time will tell…. IK has alot of work to do before the elections and it’s not too late to change his rhetoric about taliban. His political stance has too many contradictions to unite all Pakistani’s to rally behind him.
Imran is the rank outsider who is going to upset the apple-cart. It may also quite happen, that he won’t be able to ( allowed to ) complete his full term of office, as those who get him elected may expect the moon; but by that time, he may have done a whale of a lot of good. The writer of this article has an error of judgement, in comparing him to an also-ran like Ralph Nader in the US, which Imran most certainly is not.
You have right to express your views.But what i think the next election should be on performance not on excuses.If the people of Pakistan remember (not the sixty five years) just five years of their national history the result would be different.The current rulers both federal and provencial are grooming their children and thinking of their family assets not the (deperived of every thing)poor public.
“Give us a break,” one of them wrote to me. “Imran Khan shall, Insha Allah, rise and no anti-Imran propaganda would….” God, apparently is not a cricket fan.
Why expect a supportive comment from an American for Imran who places interests of Pakistan first?
God is a cricket fan but you are not.
Imran Khan was misguided in naming his Party with the word “Insaf”.
The root of insaf is “nisf” or half, a throwback on “Equity” principle practiced in the Pastoral times when the Tribe must divide the assets equally among the flock in order to survive, a sort of rationing in hard times.
As man practiced Agriculture, the working principle became Love, a necessary and sufficient condition for survival and growth of an agrarian society.
When the trading era set in, the axis moved to “Justice” giving each his due. Athens and Mecca were both trading centres, and both Socrates and Mohammed (AS) stressed Justice.
Moses, Jesus, and Mohammed (AS) were the Chief Economists of their respective eras – pastoral, agrarian, trade. Moses was a shepherd, Jesus an artisan in the Fertile Crescent, and Mohammed (AS) a businessman trader. There are Moses’ Laws of Equity, the Love of Jesus, and Justice of Mohammed (AS).
I presume Imran means justice (not equity) when he named his party “Insaf”, a common misconception in Pakistan. But that only shows the depth of his ignorance of history. Equity was also used by the Soviet Socialists as their Principle of operation, and we all know what that ended up with.
The correct Urdu/Arabic/Persian word for justice is “Adl”. The Justice Party in Turkey is named Adalet Partisi.
Well articulated Sir!
Uselss commentary on linguistic history of a word. Practically has nothing to do with the party objectives as stated by its leadership.
This is like a doctor criticizing a poet saying that heart has nothing to do with emotions but the brain has. Give me a break.
No relevance to the article. You are merely trying to impress people with your irrelevant commentary.
Comparing Ralph Nader to IK?? What a ridiculous article.
What a ridiculous comment!
Pakistani deserved the leaders like Imran khan because we have a history, we always worship the personality , we never look at the ground realities. IK popularity is a media boom. IK is playing with peoples’ emotions , by making big promises which will never be achieved. Most of the corrupt politician of Musharaf, and Nawaz regimes have already joined PTI. They were devils then and angels now that they are part of PTI. What hypocrisy?
You are so right
Just by saying he is not popular will not make him such. It is not in the interest of the western powers to have a powerful, independent, nuclear Pakistan and that is why we see so much negativity about Pakistan in the western media.
yes. A powerful, independent, nuclear Pakistan, which is heading and destined to become a ideal Islamic welfare state is an envy for eveeryone. Pakistan has always been an ideological leader for every other country, and especially for its naboughers and enemies.
I am glad someone said it the way it actually is. This is the bigger picture and every thing around it from Taliban in and across the border from Malala (although my heart goes out to her and her family) to even the president of Pakistan and the sectarian divide are all methodically created to keep us from looking at the bigger scheme of things.
just as u said Imran Khan isnt very popular in the rural areas of pakistan so thats why he is keeping smaller raller in smal town to get the people from the rural areas in pakistan also behind him.
He visited my town (5000 people) a few weeks ago and he is probably not getting a lot of media attention there but i can ensure you where ever he comes he gets a lot of people on his side before this i was the only one FOR imran khan now almost evryone speaks in favour of him in my town.
Why Imran Khan did not marry again? He could be having a happy family life forgetting this all
Btw I just hate his former wife ! How can a man who could not find his soul mate within Pakistan do anything for Pakistan? Loved his cricket always. Don ‘t have respect for men who cannot even choose the right women in their lives sorry. Ofcourse, i cannot vote for him – i live on the other side of the border! In short, Khan is a total disappointment !
What is your concern? Your likes and dislikes are not the criteria for the leader ship of a country. Only a small mind thinks this way. You live on the other side of the border anyway. Try to have a happy life there.
An American writing about Pakistani politician and making prediction may be right. They are the one behind the scene who decide the future leader of Pakistan.
They are academics who take an outsiders’ view of Pakistan,actually!
Are you telling Pakistan does not even the discipline to choose its own leader?? Such baseless statements do not help the country.
What a travesty though that Americans couldnt ever elect Ralph Nader with all the attributes columnist wrote about to the presidency and quite unique in the last thirty years of American Presidential history with the exception of perhaps JFK and Jimmy Carter. Quite telling about the American political system.
The only way to judge Imran’s popularity is to wait for the elections and the only way to judge him as a leader is for the people to give him the mandate in the elections to lead Pakistan. If we are serious (and we better be) in ridding the nation of corruption and saving Pakistan for future generations, then right now Imran is the only way out.
yes. he is the only one to lead Pakistan to become a modern and ideal Islamic welfare state, which will be devoid of all the unislamic vices and cultures.
The first politician / leader to take a bold aggressive stand against the militants & extremists who have killed 40,000 innocent Pakistanis will have overwhelming support of the people of Pakistan. Unfortunately, Imran Khan doesn’t appear to be that person or leader.
Most innocent Pakistanis are killed by US drones, and he is rightfully against drone attacks.
IK is a pro-taliban mindset. Taliban apologists just don’t know how interact with the world through wisdom, except through knee jerk statements.
Your kind of mind-set and mental quality is what has brought Pakistan to its present sorry state and sad condition. You want more of the same?
Dear, barber of my area also say that he is a new face, he should be given a chance to be PM.
Nothing has changed for Pakistani society ( the people who give votes), same story will be repeated again…. Same government will be come to power again… And same story will be repeated…
The loss of Shireen Mazari may be indicative of loss of support from the establishment and that could hurt him. On the other hand, the loss of someone who sees ALL Pakistani problems through an Indian conspiracy viewpoint can only be beneficial to Pakistan.
Khan and the army seem to have a similar view toward Taliban and America. Would that give a new angle to look at the situation?
Well Agha I can understand where you are coming from but its not as simple as you put it. If we are to talk about whats in the national interest of Pakistan then perhaps its not all that bad having similar views of the two towards Taliban and America after all America itself is talking to Taliban though not candidly but they certainly are talking. Whats in one country’s interest may not necessarily be in the interest of another and vice versa. As one of the commenters very truly said that the Strong, “Independent” and a Nuclear armed Pakistan is not in America’s interest. So should Pakistan give up all that to align itself with the interests of America or should it aspire to have and protect its own national interests?
nice article,it all makes sense, well written by a man who has brain and can think straight for a nation which is full of emotions. our common man has been tortured so much that they are expecting some miracle which doesnt happen these days.
still the better option will be Imran Khan ,I wonder how Imran will deal with Army/Mullah/agencies/population explosion/unemployement/illetracy/militancy/america/corruption/sectarianism/hypocrisy and the false belief that we are the best among muslims.
IF Washington knew everything – Americans wouldn’t be killed in Libya.
IMRAN kHAN ia undoubtedly an honest person and his plans are ambitious but unfortunately he has only a few leaders in his party who wll win their seats in the assemblies such as Shah Mahmood Qureshi due to their influence in their constituencies. Mostly people who are aspiring for seats in the assemblies are new and have no influence in their areas. People do not even know them. How can they win in the elections. Gone are the days when people used to cast their votes in the name of leaders of their parties. Now the voters are very clever and will vote very carefully.There are very remote chances of Imran Khan to get majority seats particularly in rural areas of Sind and Baluchistan. He will hardly get 20 seats in the National Assembly. Moreover,. there is a rift in his party and different groups have been formed in the party before elections which is also in the knowledge of Imran Khan. This will also affect the party adversely and some people may also quit the party.
People deserve and get the leaders they resonate with….rightly or wrongly. That is the beauty of democracy. My problem is not with IK alone but with the IK trolls as well. This is a young generation grown up in the post Zia era who have no idea how the right wing sway of the country in that decade, has brought this country down to its knees in the comity of nations. These are young kids understandably angry with the present state of affairs, are brainwashed in middle class morality by a right wing media. Many hate the US and the world ideas in general and filling this political vacuum for them is going to be this hero in shining armor. In this they are ignoring the stark right wing leaning of this hero who may ultimately take all of them down. I would hate to see Pakistan slide any further away from the world order. I wish the younger generation stops hero worship and vote for the best candidates who have thier interest at heart. Democracy is by the people, of the people and for the people. Again democracy is about the people of Pakistan and not about family dynasties or for that matter demagogues.