PML-N recovers lost ground in Punjab
PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif. — Photo by AFP
LAHORE: Confident, buoyant, ready to take on all comers: the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz in Punjab is a party unrecognisable from a year ago.
From the rediscovered appetite of Nawaz Sharif for the hard slog of campaigning to comfortably defending seats in the recent by-elections, the PML-N is flexing its electoral muscles in the party’s strongholds in north and central Punjab, and even looking to make gains in south Punjab.
“We had become complacent. Lahore was a wake-up call and ever since Gujranwala we’ve been hard at work,” said Khwaja Asif, a senior PML-N leader, referring to the historic Oct 2011 Lahore rally of the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) and the Dec 31, 2011, PML-N rally that sought to rally shell-shocked party supporters.
The N-Leaguers readily acknowledge that the party has benefited from the inability of the PTI to sustain its unexpected surge of last year.
“Perception matters a lot in politics. As the PTI stumbled, it was back to a choice between the PPP and the PML-N (for voters). Of course they were going to vote PML-N then,” said Sartaj Aziz, a veteran PML-N leader from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa who is vice chancellor of Beaconhouse National University in Lahore.
More proactively, though, the party has created a sophisticated machinery to raise its own stock and attack its opponents.
“There are two strands to the PML-N strategy: development projects and attacking the PTI,” said Suhail Warraich, an expert on Punjab politics. “To ensure the flood of development money is spent as intended, two senior bureaucrats have been deputed to the chief minister’s office specifically to monitor the flow of funds.”
“Then there is the PR machine. Led by Maryam Nawaz, the PML-N has set up a state-of-the-art media centre in Lahore,” Warraich said.
“But perhaps the most effective tool in the PML-N arsenal to break the PTI and other opponents has been its survey teams.”
HUNTING FOR ELECTABLES: According to Warraich and other analysts in Lahore, the PML-N’s strategy of flinging its doors open to so-called electables has been supplemented by meticulous and professional ‘political survey teams’ that have fanned out across the districts of Punjab over the past year.
A PML-N leader explained how the party had studied local political trends and identified potential winning candidates in Punjab:
“We sent our teams to the districts in two phases to see who is up and who is down. We hired professional polling organisations to conduct surveys for the party. We’ve had the Special Branch (of the police) build profiles of various candidates because they have the local knowledge and are up-to-date. So we have a much better idea about the dynamics in the districts and which groupings and panels to build.”
The strategy has even engendered optimism that the PML-N will make inroads in south Punjab, a region with approximately 45 of Punjab’s 148 directly elected parliamentary seats and where the PML-N is considered weak as compared to the PPP and the PML-Q.
“In the old Bahawalpur division we should pick up seats. Other districts like Muzaffargarh, Lodhran and Vehari we may improve in,” said Khwaja Asif, declining to speak on the record about the particular candidates the party is wooing or vetting.
Analysts, however, caution that while strong candidates on the hunt for a party ticket are lining up for talks with the PML-N, just as they were knocking on the PTI’s doors until earlier this year, the freelance and mercenary nature of much of Punjab’s politics means the PML-N can take little for granted.
“The party convinced Nawaz Sharif to open the doors to turncoats like Zahid Iqbal,” said Ashraf Mumtaz, a veteran Lahore-based journalist, referring to the winning candidate in the recent Sahiwal by-election who quit the PPP to join the PML-N. “But what’s the guarantee turncoats will stand by the PML-N in tough times? And there’s still a long way to go before the election, so it’s hard to say how many will be with the PML-N at election time.”
TOUGH FIGHT: While publicly the PML-N suggests it will dominate Punjab, at least the north and centre, which have 105 directly elected National Assembly seats, party leaders accept in private that a tough fight lies ahead in the general election.
Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal party projections, a PML-N leader said: “If the trend continues, PML-N should be number 1, PPP number 2 and PTI number 3 in parliament. But the scale is hard to predict and will remain so until closer to the election.”
The leader continued: “As it stands, the PPP could end up with 50 seats or 80 (in the full 342-member National Assembly). Imran (Khan) could get ‘MQM-size numbers’ or slightly more. For us, 120 is the benchmark. Anything less, say 110, and it will be a struggle to form and sustain a government.”
Privately, PML-N leaders also accept, and other party leaders contend, that a four-way fight for Punjab — involving the PML-N, PPP, PML-Q and PTI — is still the most likely electoral scenario, rendering premature the predictions of a sizable overall victory for the N-League in the province.
Shafqat Mahmood, the PTI’s information secretary, said: “We’ve been distracted by our party elections. But once we get past that, we’ll have 13 elected party officials in almost every union council. The party will capture the support that is still very much out there for us.”
Leaders of PML-N acknowledge that polling data commissioned by the party continues to show significant support for the PTI in Punjab. In addition, some PML-N leaders speculate that the PTI could benefit from the PPP’s declining fortunes in north and central Punjab. “In the latest by-elections, we’ve received some reports of PPP votes that may be swinging towards the PTI,” a PML-N leader said.
PPP, PML-Q FALL BEHIND: For its part, the PPP-PML-Q alliance is still expected to eke out seats in Punjab on the back of candidates with strong local support. “The PML-Q has gone from being the King’s party to trying to become the kingmaker,” said Ashraf Mumtaz, the Lahore-based journalist. “They have the candidates to return to parliament with an MQM-type strength.”
“The PPP has got nothing to take to voters after the performance of the past four years, but they still have strongholds like Mandi (Bahauddin) and Gujrat. And with the PTI a factor, it’s hard to predict a total wipeout of the PPP because some of the three-way contests between N-League, PTI and PPP could swing the PPP’s way,” Mumtaz said.
Pervaiz Elahi, the former Punjab chief minister, who remains confident about the PML-Q’s prospects in Punjab, was less charitable about the PPP’s chances: “Gilani (the former premier) wasted four years. If he had done something, anything, it would have been possible to take some concrete achievement to the voters. But nothing was done.”
In a nod to the surging fortunes of bitter rival PML-N, Elahi said: “The best thing would be an anti-Nawaz coalition. We, PPP, JUI-F and PTI should join together and prevent the PML-N from coming back to power.”
With the PPP in deep trouble, the PML-Q reduced to a supporting role and the PTI’s second wind yet to materialise, the PML-N’s path to a clear victory in Punjab appears to have opened significantly.
But a PML-N leader cautioned: “Yes, the momentum is with us. But had we done better in the first three years, we would have been
impossible to catch by now. We didn’t and so there’s still a fight on our hands. Can anyone stop our momentum? There’s always the army.”
PML-N recovers lost ground in Punjab after massive rigging and used of weapons …
Shouldn’t he be charged for fraud??
Imran Khan was giving sweeping statements. PTI will improve there seats number but still pml nawaz group is very much a stronger party in punjab at least.
Good article but sorry to here that the N party used Special Branch (of the police) to build profiles of various candidates. What a shame. Can they ever learn? They have no right to use public resources to advance their party interests, especially when the law and order situation in the Province leaves much to be desired. No matter what they say in their speeches regarding their plans to help the people of Pakistan, I am under no illusion that they will only do what is in the best interest of their party and themselves. Old habits never dissipate, they only become dormant under pressure. M. Shafiq
PML (N) and PPP had enough chances in the past. They are incapable to deliver, lack sincerity and will. Lets give a chance to someone else who has not been tried. A wise man is not bitten twice from the same hole.
PML-N can never win if election are fair and free. If PML_N is sure, I suggest Nawaz Vs IK there should be election one in Lahore and the other RawalPindi.
“We sent our teams to the districts in two phases to see who is up and who is down. We hired professional polling organisations to conduct surveys for the party. We’ve had the Special Branch (of the police) build profiles of various candidates because they have the local knowledge and are up-to-date. So we have a much better idea about the dynamics in the districts and which groupings and panels to build.”
Good to see that the government’s resources, paid by taxpayer money i.e. police are being put to use for the betterment of the people. I’m sure the profiling by the Special Branch of Police will go a long way in fighting the lawlessness that the country is beholden to.
i think PML n have a chance to take same level ofseats what ppp got in 2008, n then that will be there victory…but here PTI is in danger even cope up with the moment to gain 40 seats what they were eulogizing a Tsunami like thing.I think it wont happen. but regardless of this if they get 40, 50 seats in NA. then it will be very important for a strong opposition and a very genuine strong opposition will be vital for government check n balance, not like PML n first 3 years opposition role and it was way friendly and allowing ppp to make record of loot n corruption. that no one in future could beat them. God Bless Pakistan !
My criteria for a party has always been the number of likes or dislikes on a comment in its favour or against it. (though unfortunately internet users are still a minority in Pakistan). I am sure PTI can win the elections, but only if these ‘facebook’ and internet users bother to visit polling stations on the day
Late Wali Khan had choice words ,expletive deleted ,for Punjab.” Always ready to worship new rising Sun”. It is a land of turncoats, dynastic feudals,PML(N) will easily find allies among them. IK will find support among Pathans but Punjabis will tow the same old line – elect PML(N) or PML (Q). Such is the fate of the nation.
I would rather say it the swing state.
And that is the reason why Wali Khan’s followers will always remain backwards – regardless of their level of education. Democracy is not about loyalty to one clan or party – it’s about making choices and learning from them.
wonderful article really enjoyed by reading. Inshallah every body will see the wining moments of PML N
Using Special Branch of Police in Punjab for political purposes? Hum, ya.
Is it really a notion of honest and clean politics? Never heard of it acknowledged before, though it often is an important tool inthe autocratic societies, but not in so-called democracies.
Shafiq
And you thought PML(N) was a democratic party? Naive
It is as if PMLN thinks it’s their birth right to use national resources for party purposes. Not even trying to hide it…. disgusting mentality.
This is an All in one Article. A real neutral representation of what is called True Journalism. Nice Analysis. Good Work Author.
PML-N can win elections only if it utilizes its experience of unfair means.They don’t have any standards and any ideology. Their only aim is to become the rulers without having any future policy to rule the country towards prosperity. They will make new records of corruption and incompetency.
……In other words they will be just like the ones which YOU support now.
Cool! can’t wait for Pakistanis to elect PML-N or PPP again then I can laugh at them like I do every day when there is a corruption of billions per day, when lahore is considered the only part of punjab and is getting crowned by vanity projects with no future. Wish Pakistanis all the best with PPP and PML-N glad I don’t live there anymore.
I agree with most of your comment, but I am not glad that I don’t live there anymore. Wish time will come when I can go back there, just like my Chine’s & Indian colleagues do.
If Pakistan keeps on electing these corrupt people (PML & PPP) again & again there is no hope. You get what you sow, we have tried them now give Imran Khan (PTI) a chance!!!
I think PTI’s rally was an eye opener for PML(N) and that made them realise that they needed to do something in Punjab to even keep their seats, let alone add more numbers. I still think that Shahbaz has gone overboard and is trying to catch up on three years when he did nothing for the province.
It just goes to show how important is to have a viable third option for people, which makes the rulers do at least some development work. However, the PPP are still not listening.
I also think eventually there would be seat adjustments between PML(N), PTI and JI, as they would not want a continuation of this deeply corrupt alliance (PPP, MQM, ANP, PML(Q)). It will be really interesting elections.
Don’t count out MQM. They are always there to support the government ( and always doing it for the sake of the awam ,hehehehehe).
Well, sounds reasonable to me.
There is no point in joining the opposition. Why not join the government, get some ministries and do some work (however little and insignificant it may be but better than doing nothing and joining the opposition). Ditto for JUI(F).