The year belonged to the Taliban
If it were a boxing bout, the year 2012 would belong to the Taliban and the militants. In the ongoing civil war in Pakistan that left almost 6,000 dead this year, 1,100 more civilians and members of the security forces have died in violence than the militants.
2012 is the second year in a row when the Taliban and militants of other stripes have inflicted more harm on civilians and security forces than they themselves have suffered. In 2011 alone, 1.3 civilians or members of the security forces died in violence for every militant killed. In the gory calculus of violence, the Taliban have emerged victorious by piling up the dead faster and higher than the State apparatus.
In the last few remaining days of this year many in Pakistan wonder if the new year will bring more of the same where, despite the sincere efforts of some institutions of the State, the militants would continue to strike with impunity. While the death toll continues to rise in Pakistan, claiming the lives of politicians, police, and the sectarian minorities, many wonder when will the Parliament, the Supreme Court, and the intelligence agencies start working in unison to stem the tide of extremism, which is likely to devour the society after it wrestles the State into submission.
The 6000-odd violent deaths in 2012 put Pakistan amongst the most violent and volatile places in the world. This distinction is not earned for a relatively high rate of violence. Even some advanced economies experience high frequency of violence. Consider that in 2011 alone, 13,913 murders took place in the US. Why then should one be alarmed about Pakistan?
I can name a couple of reasons that should put Pakistan’s establishment on the alert. First, most murderers are caught and brought to justice in the US. In comparison, most, if not all, suspected of extremist violence in Pakistan are roaming free in Pakistan, beyond the reach of law enforcement agencies. Second, the motives behind murders in the US are quite different from the ones responsible for the deaths of thousands in Pakistan where extremist militias have revolted against the State and the society.
It is rather unfortunate, but true, that the militants dominate violence in Pakistan. Since October 2012, the Taliban and other militants have been more lethal in comparison to the casualties they suffered. In November 2012 alone, the militants killed more than four civilians and security personnel for each dead militant (see the graph below). These numbers are telltale signs of a war where the militants are becoming more efficient despite battling the security forces who supposedly have access to vast government resources.
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal (www.satp.org)
Laying latent in the national statistics are the regional disparities in Pakistan’s violent landscape where the militant deaths are prominent only in Pakistan’s federally administered tribal areas (FATA). In 2012 to date, approximately 2,011 militants were killed in FATA compared to 797 civilians and members of the security forces (see the graph below). The settled areas bordering FATA in the Pashtun-dominated province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) see the immediate reversal of the militants’ fortunes where they are 2.3 times more likely to kill than being killed.
The situation is even worse in the in the southern province of Sindh where 1,361 non-militant deaths took place while the militants suffered merely111 casualties. Similarly, in the strife-stricken Balochistan, where the Baloch tribesmen are battling the armed forces, and Shia Hazaras are being ethnically cleansed by sectarian militants, 9.4 non-militant deaths were recorded for every dead militant.
Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal (www.satp.org)
As the violence continued to spread across Pakistan in 2012, the Taliban and other militants have been successful in terrorising the society. The fear of dying or being maimed in a bomb blast has confined people to their homes or places of work. Still by mid-December, 627 bomb blasts in Pakistan killed 945 and injured another 2,469 (source: http://www.satp.org).
Since 2005, more than 5,000 have perished in suicide attacks that have not spared even mosques.
Pakistan has regrettably become a place where children pass through metal detectors as they enter schools. They in fact are the fortunate ones. The unfortunate ones are those whose schools have been blown up by the Taliban and their associates.
While the militant violence in Pakistan is largely driven by domestic grievances, some external stimuli do exacerbate the conflict. The US drone strikes in Pakistan are an example of an external trigger, which is an egregious violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty that not only undermines the government of Pakistan, but also serves as a constant source of humiliation to the 180-million strong nation. While the drone trikes have been completely ineffective in Afghanistan and Pakistan in curbing militancy, the militants however have benefited from drone strikes, which they use as the justification for their armed struggle. Up until December 9, 2012, the American drones struck 44 times in Pakistan’s tribal areas killing 333 and injuring another 34 (source: http://www.satp.org).
If the drone strikes are the sole motivation for the Taliban insurgency in Pakistan, killing 3,532 unarmed civilians (including children) and members of the security forces is certainly a disproportionate response.
While some institutions of the State, such as the police and the rangers, continue to battle the extremism head-on, others institutions appear less than ready to cope with the grave challenges Pakistan faces today. At a time when the highest court in Pakistan should be focused on determining why even the self-confessed alleged terrorists walk scot free, the Supreme Court in Pakistan appears to be caught entangled in trivia, such as the suo motu action against a Sindh Assembly candidate who slapped a presiding officer. Given that the esteemed court has limited resources, it would make sense if those resources were dedicated to addressing threats that pose a clear and present danger to Pakistan. Consider for instance the fact that three out of every four terrorism cases end up in acquittal on technicalities or because of witness intimidation. At the same time, the poor resource base for forensic evidence is also a significant handicap in getting convictions against the militants.
One would like to see the Parliament, the Supreme Court, and the intelligence agencies to work in unison in addressing the lacunas in the legal system that have allowed the alleged terrorists to slip through. If fixing such lacunas requires new legislation, then the Parliament should legislate. If it requires improved training of investigating officers, then the courts should be proactive in explaining the intricacies of the burden of proof to agencies responsible for gathering evidence. If it requires equipping forensic labs with modern equipment and highly trained staff, than resources should be made available today, rather than tomorrow.
As the violence continues to expand and the militants escape justice, they are likely to radicalize the society even more. Certain segments of the society would embrace the extremist ideology and would allow the militants to operate in the shadows. The lynch mob that killed and burnt a man in Sindh provides the ideal breeding ground for militants and extremists.
Failing to act decisively and timely against the terrorists will only make 2013 even a worse year than 2012. It is therefore incumbent that all institutions of the State should unite against militancy. Hoping for a Happy New Year for Pakistan may otherwise be hoping against hope.
Murtaza Haider, Ph.D. is the Associate Dean of research and graduate programs at the Ted Rogers School of Management at Ryerson University in Toronto. He can be reached by email at murtaza.haider@ryerson.ca
The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.
I believe more people are killed by the traffic accidents, homicides due to domestic disputes, land disputes, envoirnmental accidents, drownings, than killed by the Talibans. Their killing is more noticeable because state has no control on this kind of voilence and media coverage is more pronounced than the other kind of deaths in Pakistan. Since that is the most feared enemy of the state and its people, and Govenment is helpless to stop it, people are more feared of Talibans than the rest of the crimes in Pakistan.
Why are all the Islamic countries in the world in the state that they are in?
A very analytical and factual article, thanks to the writer. However the joke is that in spite of such problems at home Mrs Kharr is discussing problems of Syria and people come on street to sort out problems of Israel and Burma.
The author has forgotten the role of Saudi Arabia in fueling the terrorists. And the political pressure from the top players on judiciary to release the terrorists.
Excellent analysis…I loved dawn more then any other paper. I have gone through all the comments I am happy at least none of comments blame to India or RAW for the mess in Pakistan.
Years and years belonged to the Taliban, when they were fighting and dieing in Afghanistan, to protect Pakistan and pakistanies, did we gave any credit then, Numbers and Numbers been killed by ruthless bombing, USA targetted them because OSAMA was living in Pakistan,
Taliban have always fought for their political benefit. They never fought for Pakistan or Islam.
Writer seems belong to minority sect, he is fully aware about the sectarian hatred and has one sided picture. He did not notice large scale majority killings. Neither he discuss root causes of sectarian killings and spread of hatred, always overlook the facts. Ridiculous.
what a shame and disgrace this is for us Pakistanis! May Allah help us, give patience to the relatives of the deceased and injured. May Allah punish whosoever is behind these killings and help us in selecting rulers who will live and die to serve the Muslim ummah and Pakistan.
Instead of Allah, maybe you should look to education and books for help. So far Allah has not done much to help all those that have sought help from him. Pakistan has LOWEST education budget per capital in the entire world.
Bravo, thanks for highlighting sectarian violence issue.
I hope that India will never trust Pakistan. Too many years, and too many lies, and too much terrorism.
We really need to start an arms race with Pakistan.
Let them finish themselves off with an arms race.
Worst part is that Taliban use the name of Islam for their power game. Killing innocent people indiscriminately, killing poor lady health workers, trying to kill young girls who are only following what prophet PBUH said “learn even if you have to go to China”, desecrating graves, etc gives a very bad name to our religion. Taliban are the greatest threat to Pakistan and Islam.
many wonder when will the Parliament, the Supreme Court, and the intelligence agencies start working in unison to stem the tide of extremism, which is likely to devour the society after it wrestles the State into submission.
Intelligence agancies are partly to blame for the violence in Pakistan. They are more interested in establishing a foothold in Afghanistan than protecting its borders. This is bound to divide Pakistan into Punjabi versus the rest of Pakistani (Baloch, Paktun, Sindo) because Punjabi makes foreign policy while the rest of Pakistan bear the consequences. In the long run, Pakistan will, thus, be split into two or more countries.
Earlier I wrote that ‘let us give lesss importance to religion’, Dawn did not release my post. But I again tell the same thing. Let us give less importance to religion and concentrate on other things to avoid all sort of histerical activities. When extreme things happen in the name of religion, people are confused whether to support or be silent or oppose. If you oppose, you may be termed as anti religious. Governance and religion are totally different thing. Just because Pakistan was created based on religious identify, it does not have to be too religious, even more aggressive than Arabs.
lacunas in the legal system can not be addressed in pakistan high profile public representative are themselves involved in crime
Mr Murtaza your article presents a true picture of the present chaos prevailing in the Pakistan. But it would have been more befitting had you suggested the root cause of this menace (terrorism / talibanization). Unfortunately we are crying hoarse to rope in the monster, but how can it be possible without a mechanism i.e address the actual problems and they are poverty, injustices, rampant corruption, unemployment, no access to health facilities, lack of education and much much more. It won’t be naive to say that Pakistan is passing through the process of evolution either this monster will eat us or we may harness it through actual fight and not through the present fire fight.
I agree with you. But to address the problems raised by you, you need money. Unfortunately Pakistan is spending all the money in arms race with India. We must understand that this is futile as well as useless exercise, because India has to carry on its build up keeping in mind China and for India Pakistan is not the issue. Will some one ever understand this or it is too simple to understand.
Pakistan needs a ‘Sri Lanka’ solution. The low/high level war waged by Tamil terrorists was finally over when Sri Lankans decided to kill the top leadership and destroyed their sanctuaries…For 30 years Tamil tigers terrorized the country while pretending to be fighting for greater Tamil rights. during that time, they ravaged the country with suicide bombs and executions of innocents.
For 30 years, Sri Lankans were like Pakistanis are today, they were paralyzed and believed in ‘magic’ that
somehow if they could put their heads in sands, tigers and their many supporters would just go away and they could live happily ever after….. Remember it took them 30 years to finally have the courage to stand up against killers. Today, Sri Lanka is back on the world map…commerce, cricket, tourism is back and life is thriving again.
All we have to ask a simple question…how much time do we have and how many lives we can feed to monster?
Yes the Tamil uprising was suppressed BUT at the expense of massive human rights violations and abuse from the government. Till today, the government of Sri Lanka has not been held accountable for the crimes committed especially during the final military surge. A political reconciliation is yet to be reached. Pakistan, cannot afford such a ‘solution.’
When you are in state of war, where enemy doesn’t discriminate in killing and maiming innocents,…the human rights becomes a academic exercise. TTP will not stop killing because we wish them to stop….Tanya, you and I including this blog will be history if we don’t stop them with all our might.
Fully agree with your comments. In fact Pak military is better equipped and trained than SL army and can easily defeat the militants within an year’s time. However, the state has to show zero tolerance to terrorism and sectarian violence and cannot be selective in fighting militancy, which is the most important factor to win the war against terrorism in Pakistan.
Brillent ! article… True analysis…. excellent
Feeling utterly sorry to read the different statistics of Human corpses.
6000 deaths in a year for nothing!!!! It is high time that people of Pakistan understood the difference between right and wrong, difference between religion and bigotry, difference between “freedom -fighters” and militants!! People should wake up and decide the way they want to take their country and their future. Once people have decided the right choice, no Taliban and no Al-Qaeda can make any harm to them!!
Wishing a safe and bright new year for the People of Pakistan!!
The year belonged to the Taliban……. And to their sponsors.
Excellent analysis but wishful thinking; what you propose will not gonna happen anytime soon..!
If some Pakistani or muslim still think that talibans are real leaders of Islam, he or she is nonsense. Talibans are cruel enemies of humanity, Islam and Pakistan.
And the Muslims?
Time for British rule to come back.
What your nation needs is an internal security act.Where such trouble creators with known wrong acts are held in detention for a period of years without the court’s intervention.Liberal bleeding hearts of the human rights arena will oppose.Your nation’s well being is more important.The only problem is if your politicians use it to frame their opponents.
What you are suggesting is that Pakistan become a fascist state. When due process is denied, how would citizens of Pakistan (and of the world) know that an actual criminal has been incarcerated and not some ordinary Joe Blow? When police fails to catch actual criminals, they tend to capture poor ordinary citizens and torture them into admitting a crime they did not commit. Please keep in mind, there is a very thin line in the sand that differentiates criminals from the police, which is the law that is on the side of the latter. I would suggest law enforcement agencies, including intelligence gathering, become more effective in solving crimes, and a greater cohesion between them.
True analysis of the present fiasco. Mr Murtaza if our Parliamentarians, Security Forces and Judiciary decided to sit together and formulate a strategy, I bet we need not to fight and Pakistan will itself stand victorious. But that is not going to happen.