The youth bulge can bring either dividend or become a liability for a country, depending on the prevalent political, socio-economic and ideological trends in its society.

As the fabric of Pakistani society is knitted with multiple ethnic, cultural, political and ideological shades, implications of a variably spread youth bulge could be different for diverse regions. On the whole, it could have both positive and negative consequences for the country in terms of its interaction with and mobilisation by the prevalent socio-cultural, politico-ideological and extremist discourses.

In other words, political parties, and other ideological and nationalist movements and even criminal elements could equally benefit from the growing youth population in their respective areas of influence. Political parties in Punjab, mainly Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which are trying to exploit the youth in their electoral favour, may not be the only beneficiaries of the emerging phenomenon.

Nationalist and regional parties in Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) have the potential to make use of this bulge into their favour. The same applies to ideological movements, which range from traditional religious parties to violent and non-violent radical organisations operating across the country.

Nevertheless, the increasing religious radicalism of urban youth, mainly in central and north Punjab, and growing militant and sectarian tendencies in low-income classes largely in south Punjab, tribal areas and its adjacent settled areas in KP have a direct link with it. The rising anti-federation sentiments in Balochistan, a part of which manifests itself in the form of an insurgency, and increasing strength of ethnic and the nationalist parties in Sindh equally enjoy the benefits of the expanding young club in the country.

The expansion in the information technology base, including electronic and cyber space, proves to be a catalyst factor, which is intensifying all the above-mentioned tendencies. This trend may impact the social transformation but a lot depends on the utilisation of the adolescence swell both by the Pakistani state and society.

Crime is gripping society and the law enforcement mechanism has failed to respond. The reason is clear; the law enforcement infrastructure and practices were not enhanced in accordance with the expanding population and emerging crime trends. An adult crime franchise system is expanding in urban areas in Sindh, Punjab and KP.

The slums in cities are crucial areas serving as breeding grounds for criminals. The weakness of the system provides space to criminals to encroach into the available places. Increasing street crime in the cities, moral crimes across the board and biradri and clan-based crimes not only expose the system but also the failure of the state to control the population explosion.

Apart from the gloomy picture, the young population can play a vital role in the demographic transition. More than 50 million people in Pakistan are between the ages of 15 and 29. Given the failure of population control measures, the youth bulge is now a reality. Many experts believe that the youth can be a harbinger of prosperity and conceive that unemployment, which has reached 5.6 per cent, will not lead to social upheaval in Pakistan.

It depends on the socio-cultural growth of the society and its ability to absorb the new trends and cultivate new values. Most importantly, development of economic infrastructure and potential to captivate the demographic transitional shocks can provide some remedy.

The optimist demographers claim that Pakistan’s economy has the potential because of the presence of a large informal economy, including the agricultural and services sectors. They project that the number of people in the age group 15-29 years and the total labour force will nearly double by 2050, which can prove a great resource for growth.

This requires a growth strategy and a proper youth policy, that can give direction to demographic transition. Presently, the economy and policy making of the country are unable to take advantage of the youth bulge.

There are chances that in the absence of a clear direction, the youth bulge will dissolve into the current political, social and ideological paradigms. It is, however, difficult to predict whether it would become a dividend in the form of useful human resource or a liability in the form of disgruntled and wasted youths.