THE sharp fall in targeted cotton production this year raises a fundamental question: how do we plan a crop that generates 70 per cent exports and has the potential to take the entire economy down with it?

Officials dealing with cotton, who now incidentally work under the Ministry of Textile, had fixed a target of 14.60 million bales when the sowing started.

However, during September, they revised the target downwards to 13.3 million bales when heavy rains took the toll on crop, creating a controversy about the (mis)handling of the crop and target.

If the planners can revise the target mid-way, depending on the weather conditions, where is then the planning part? The entire exercise should more appropriately be called ‘crop reporting or assessment’ rather than planning. That is precisely where things stand now: the officials insist that their revised target was 13.3 million bales, which they have achieved.

Those measuring the yield from 14.60million bales, insist that the country has lost around 1.5 million bales — at least so far. The do make some concession to the fact that some residual part of the crop is still in the fields of Punjab and some bales could be added to the tally in the next few days.

What makes the argument hugely damaging for national economy and farmers is its fiscal dimension. The difference of 1.5million bales means a loss of around Rs60billion to farmers and economy. The economy may suffer even more as the import process would add to financial cost.

The current process of cotton planning has some inherent flaws, which need to be removed before next year if the government wants to bring some certainty in the crop yield. With the axing of Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) after the 18th Amendment, the planning part was devolved to provinces.

The FCA had a wide ranging role in crop planning, which only a federation can perform. It was the FCA that used to plan entire agricultural spectrum every season, twice a year. It used to calculate how much food the country would require next year and how much cash crops (cane and cotton) the industry would need — which province can produce what, which would need what to produce, which it has been assigned to.

It was at this forum where all provinces used to furnish their demands for inputs. Apart from the planning part, the FCA used to coordinate among different ministries for timely placements of import orders (fertilisers, pesticides etc.), arranging (federal) finance for them and on-time in-farm distribution once they land in the country.

In its absence, the duty has fallen on Crop Assessment Committee, which is working under the ministry of textile. As suggested by the name and working environment, the committee only assesses the crop when it is already in the field.

To make the matter even worse for the farmers and by virtue of it working under the textile ministry, the committee generates figures for the industry — how much crop the industry should expect and how much it would need to import to meet the deficit. Thus, the mechanism, as currently working, is essentially crop reporting for the industry rather than crop planning for the country.

That is exactly why when rains hit the country in second and third week of September, the committee revised the target (read availability). The committee justified the revision saying that crop is normally at most crucial stage of flowering during September. This year, when unexpectedly heavy rain hit the crop, it caused shedding and delayed the crop by almost 10 days. For each day, it damaged the crop by one boll a day for 10 days. Shedding of each boll translates into one maund loss in the yield.

By that calculation, the country lost around ten maunds per acre in Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan Districts — both the highest yielding districts. The revision was thus necessary. However, they conveniently forgot those rains also had improved crop in other areas by bringing it out of water and CLCV stress. Where has that benefit gone?

The Committee claims with a measure of justification that flash floods caused hill torrent of DG Khan and swept around 400,000 acres of standing crop in the lower plains and caused another hole of 600,000 bales in the final tally. That makes sense. But the loss of the other one million bales in Punjab, if taken against the original target, does not.

The industry needs the yield, not the crop per say. However, Punjab needs both. It needs to tend the crop because it is the biggest cash source for its rural areas and poverty picture in those areas largely depends on cotton.

These factors make the crop too important to be left in planning vacuum, as currently the situation is. With FCA gone, there is no one to plan the crop from the start and tend it to the final stage.

Being a sensitive and indeterminate crop, cotton needs planning long before it is actually sown on the field and attention long after the so-called maturity stage.

Its planning includes import of a number of pesticides and its maturity is spread on weeks and depends on a number of variables.

At each stage, it needs planning and attention, which has gone missing because the ministry of industry is put in charge of something it does not need.