Barring any major catastrophe, Punjab is hoping for around 18.50 million tonnes of wheat this season. If the output hits this figure, then it would be safe to assume that the country would achieve a production of 24 million tonnes of the staple crop this year.

However, rising temperatures in Punjab this month, as well as risk of a rust attack, may pose a threat not only to wheat, but also other crops in the province as well.

The metrological department expects that temperatures this month would be higher by around 1-1.5 degrees Celsius from the usual temperatures at the time.

But the provincial government believes that its wheat crop would soon be in a position to deal with relatively hotter temperatures. They base their predictions on the pattern of the current heat wave, the condition of the crop, and some measures taken when the seeds was sown last year.

The department also predicts that the province would receive rains during the second, third and last weeks of this month. Specifically, showers are expected in upper parts of the country and Punjab and in the plains as well.

This weather pattern is providing some optimism to the provincial government. There is also the fact that the weather can only affect the crop during the next two weeks. For, by March 20, the crop starts de-linking itself from the soil, as its roots start atrophying. This would insulate the plant from any weather shock. Night temperatures are still low in the region, which grants further relief to the crop.

The only other major threat to the crop is a rust attack. If rains create humid conditions, even in some parts of the province, coinciding high temperatures could trigger the attack. While rains in February did not give rise to such a phenomenon, it should be noted that temperatures were low during the month.

However, with temperatures now hovering in the 30s (degrees), high humidity could be dangerous. Areas that border India are particularly vulnerable to a rust attack, as they regularly suffer from the phenomenon. Local farmers have blamed some Indian pest invasion in the past.

The usage of dozens of different types of wheat seeds is only adding to the uncertainty. A host of new seed varieties had been introduced in Punjab during the past few years. That, coupled with the fact that farmers in the province ran out of their wheat seed stock this season, has led to a lot of confusion. Growers are uncertain if the type of seeds they used would be able to resist a rust attack or not.

While it keeps its fingers crossed against such a scenario, the provincial government bases its optimism on the fact that over 70 per cent of the crop was sown during November. By provincial standards, the period is known as an early (on-time) sowing period.

Another factor behind the optimism was the availability of water during the Rabi season. While the province started the season with a 17 per cent water shortage, winter rains brought down the shortage to a more manageable 13 per cent. The rains supplemented canal water, and brought the crop to its current healthy stage.

The cold wave in the province during December and January also prevented weeds from creeping onto the crop. It also led to a decrease in the usage of weedicides by farmers.

An equally positive wheat output is also expected in East (Indian) Punjab. Historically, the Indian Punjab produces 16.4 million tonnes of the staple crop every year. However, Pakistani growers say that the yield across the border would likely jump up to 16.7 million tonnes this year.

One can only hope that these estimates hold for the next three weeks, and that the country gets what it needs to meet its local demand.