The FAFEN Intent to Vote survey (2013) looks at voting behaviour and patterns from across Pakistan to gauge voting intentions. Out of 4,450 people interviewed countrywide, 67 per cent said they intend to turn up for the election while six per cent stated they would not and 0.2 per cent were not sure. The remaining 27 per cent did not respond.

The survey comprises demographic details including age, education level, monthly income, occupation and employment. Data is analysed according to gender and geographic location (provincial breakdown).Out of 2,430 people interviewed in Punjab, 1,681 (69.2 per cent) intend to vote; similarly out of 650 interviewed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 419 (64.5 per cent) intend to vote; in Balochistan out of 310 interviewed, 166 (53.5 per cent) said they would show up on polling day; in Sindh out of 940 interviewed and 601 (63.9 per cent) expressed their intention to vote; in FATA out of 90 interviewed 82 (91.9 per cent) said they would vote; and out of 30 interviewed in the Islamabad Capital Territory 21 (70 per cent) said they would vote. In Balochistan, only 53 per cent of respondents intend to vote in the election. This could be attributed to the current insecurity and terror attacks.

These numbers might change nearer the election because voting patterns are dependent on socio-economic and political factors, says Mudassir Rizvi, the head of FAFEN.

However, political observers note that the integrity of the voting exercise is better presented for this election leading to increased voter confidence. “It is important to create an environment that will enable voters to go to polling stations,” Rashid Chaudhry at FAFEN explains.

For this reason the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has announced a combination of practices, including the deployment of army personnel at certain polling stations in violence-prone towns and cities. “Enhancing voter confidence is important at this stage. Discrediting democracy campaigns doesn’t help because people will feel their popular leadership is not allowed to contest and so they may not bother to vote,” Mr Chaudhry adds.

Interestingly, the Chief Election Commissioner, retired Justice Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim, says he estimates a 60 per cent voter turnout. “People are more conscious of their rights,” he adds.

While examining the provincial breakdown using gender demographics (those intending to vote), the survey indicates that 2,373 men intend to vote and 2,077 women want to cast their votes (only one woman was interviewed in FATA as opposed to 89 men from the same area: the survey findings state she expressed the intent to vote).

Regionally 91 per cent of men in FATA said they would vote; 79 per cent in Punjab; 76 per cent in KP; 69 per cent in Sindh, 67 per cent in the ICT and 64 per cent in Balochistan. In Punjab, it is noted that 1,312 women (60.6 per cent) said they will vote; while in KP 207 (40.1 per cent) intend to vote and 125 (38.4 per cent) women in Balochistan. The survey shows that women voter intentions decrease where increasing insecurity challenges mobility and also where tradition bars female voters from leaving their homes.

The highest numbers of people in this survey not intending to vote were in Balochistan (15 per cent). Again this could be because of a lack of security which analysts believe will become even more widespread come polling day. Political candidates aligned to secular parties remain vulnerable to Taliban attacks. A small percentage of respondents in Punjab (six per cent), KP (4.5 per cent), Sindh (four per cent), ICT (three per cent) and FATA (one per cent) do not intend to vote.

The survey looks at the intent to vote among various age groups with respondents aged over 55 showing a greater interest to vote than other age groups. Regional analysis presents a different picture. In the ICT turnout intentions among the18 — to 25-year-old group were the highest and lowest for those above 45. FATA has more people in 18 to 25 age bracket who said they would vote; least likely to vote were aged between 46 and 55. In Punjab, KP and Sindh, those in the 26 to 35 age bracket were most likely to vote, followed by those in 36-45, 18-25, 46-55 and above 55 groups. According to Unicef, Pakistan’s youth bulge is one of the largest in the world with 35 per cent of the population being 15 years or less. The ECP states that 47.8 per cent of voters are between 18 and 35, while 19.77 per cent (16.88 million voters) are under the age of 26.

Educational qualifications are significant to the intention to vote. Seventy-six per cent of respondents with a bachelor’s degree or higher qualification intend to vote. Sixty-eight  per cent of madrassah and primary level educated students say they will vote.

The FAFEN survey examines the relationship of respondents with their elected representatives implying that voting intentions could be based on past performances: only six per cent had contacted their elected leaders in the past three months and more than two-fifths of respondents claimed that promises for development made during the 2008 election remained unfulfilled. When asked to mark three key issues affecting their lives from a list of 28, not surprisingly more than half of the respondents (55 per cent) ticked off loadshedding of electricity, unemployment (21 per cent) and poverty (seven per cent). An equal number (two per cent) showed concern about terrorism, unavailability of sound education and decent sanitation facilities.