Consisting of crowded old-city neighbourhoods and unplanned semi-urban residential areas, Peshawar’s National Assembly constituency NA-1 has always mainly been closely fought over by the Awami National Party (ANP) and the Pakistan Peoples Party.

Since 1988, candidates belonging to the ANP and the PPP have emerged victorious alternatively on NA-1, except for the 2002 general elections when the religio-political Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal alliance won the majority of the National Assembly seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

While the faces fielded by the PPP have been changing, on the ANP side it has always been the Bilours. Ghulam Ahmed Bilour led the family’s forays into politics, except for 2002 when he was handicapped because candidates were required to have a graduation degree.

Though not unbeatable (they were defeated by PPP candidates in 1988 and 1993), the Bilours know what it takes to defeat others at the polls no matter how massive the challenger. In 1990, Ghulam Bilour snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against none other than Benazir Bhutto.

The constituency has odd political dynamics. Unlike numerous other urban centres within Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, NA-1 has never been a simple political chessboard that can be studied through merely ethnic, biradri (clan) or dharra (groupings) lens. It presents candidates the challenging task of building a winning combination by taking into account a perplexing mix of electorates from conservative cultural and religious backgrounds, enlightened political activists, and uneducated or undereducated working-class voters.

Comprising a voter base that has been historically divided along strong ethnic lines of the Pakhtun and Hindko-speaking communities, the constituency has been an equal-opportunity game for the ANP and the PPP. Both parties have successfully maintained connections within the two ethnic groups with the Bilours, an ethnic Hindko-speaking family from the inner city, performing the lead role in making the ANP a Peshawar party. No matter how formidable his opponent, the senior Bilour has always enjoyed the status of a front runner with equal chances of victory. This could be set to change.

Never before has the family confronted a one-man army that is the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf’s Imran Khan.

With mass appeal among the young, Mr Khan has the added advantage of being able to run his campaign freely. The Bilours, meanwhile, are under attack from the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The April 16 suicide bomb attack on Mr Bilour’s election event in inner city Yakkatoot, which left 20 dead and over 40 injured, was a harsh reminder of this reality. In December last year, the TTP succeeded in killing Bashir Ahmed Bilour, a senior minister in the ANP-led Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government. According to Farid Toofan, once a close associate of the family and now a political rival, though younger to Ghulam Bilour, Bashir was the most politically amenable to maintaining public appeal.

But “if Imran holds appeal for the right-wing voters in Peshawar,” said an ANP man requesting anonymity, “Ghulam Bilour has also made some inroads.” He was referring to the $100,000 bounty that the senior Bilour announced last year for killing the producer of a short film that triggered a violent controversy in Pakistan.

Though he has never contested before from Peshawar, Mr Khan and his supporters are 100 per cent sure about victory. They have their reasons for such optimism. “If the current media hype remains unchanged, Imran appears set to win from wherever he is contesting,” said the ANP supporter.

However, the PTI is unlikely to sail through unchallenged. The Bilour appeal for a divergent vote bank is just one of the hurdles. “If the PPP had not fielded its candidate, its votes would have gone to Imran Khan because a good number of PPP voters have shown the tendency to vote against the Bilours in the absence of their own candidate,” said Malik Naveed, a PPP worker in NA-1.

The other sword hanging over Mr Khan on NA-1 appears to be the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) candidate, Bashir Ahmed Khan, who has the proven capacity to deprive Mr Khan of the right-leaning vote bank. The JI’s candidate won in NA-1 against Usman Bilour in 2002, securing over 37,000 votes against the 23,000 polled by the later.

Similarly, while the Bilours have ample financial resources, a battery of party workers and well-established party organisation for election day, Mr Khan’s team is a new entrant to the logistics in an election. Nevertheless, “we have more than 50,000 registered voters just in Peshawar to work for our party leader on polling day,” said Zaffarullah, a PTI Peshawar leader.

Yet journalists in Peshawar say that the PTI managed to bring out only a few thousand registered members to vote in its recent party elections, casting doubts about the organisation of the PTI’s Peshawar chapter. The same doubt is implied by Zaffarullah’s own stance: “I will only vote for Imran Khan on NA-1, and not for the party’s ticket-holder on the provincial assembly seat because the party ignored those who worked hard to put it on Peshawar’s electoral map,” he said. Zaffarullah withdrew his candidature for PK-1 after initially deciding to run as an independent candidate against the party decision.