BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN: Brunei's economy is projected to grow by an average of 2.4 per cent from 2013 to 2017 as Southeast Asia recovers from a slowdown in 2011 and 2012, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The organisation, in its latest publication of "The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014", said that real growth in Southeast Asia as well as China and India should recover from the sluggish performance in 2011-2012 and achieve a robust pace over 2013-2017.

"Growth of the Southeast Asian region is projected to average 5.5 per cent over 2013-2017, the same rate recorded during the pre-crisis period (2000-07). The success of the Southeast Asian economies in sustaining robust growth in the near term attests to their resilience in the face of major external shocks," OECD said in the pocket edition of the report.

In a table which shows the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Southeast Asia, China and India in terms of annual percentage change, Brunei is anticipated to gain a growth of 2.9 per cent in 2017 and an average of 2.4 per cent between the year 2013 and 2017, from a growth of 2.2 per cent in 2011. There were no economic projections for Brunei during the 2000-2007 period.

Indonesia is seen to lead the Asean-6 countries with a growth rate of 6.4 per cent over 2013-17, significantly above its average after the 1997 Asian crisis (5.1 per cent over the 2000-07 period) and equal to that recorded in the two decades prior to that crisis.

Projected growth in Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand compares favourably to growth for other developing countries at a comparable stage of development, owing in part to the comparatively high national savings rates in the Southeast Asian countries.

Brunei is part of the Asean-6 countries.

Growth in the CLMV countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam) is also projected to be quite rapid over the medium term, ranging from over six per cent for Cambodia and Myanmar, and more than seven per cent in Lao PDR, according to the publication.

Growth in Cambodia and Vietnam is projected to be somewhat slower than before the global financial crisis.

Growth in Emerging Asia which includes Southeast Asia, China and India, as a whole is projected to be 7.4 per cent by 2017, though slower than its pre-crisis rate (8.6 per cent over the 2000-07 period). This moderated growth momentum is largely due to weakening of the two big giants in the region, China and India.

Growth in China is projected to slow somewhat from the nearly 10 per cent recorded over the first three decades of its reform period, though its growth rate will be above eight per cent over 2013-2017.

The projected slowdown is due to slower growth in demand for China's exports along with lower labour force growth and the waning of productivity gains from shifting labour from agriculture to industry and the incorporation of existing technologies.

A press conference will be held in Brunei by the deputy secretary-general of OECD Rintaro Tamaki for the publication later today.

The "Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014", an annual publication provides an update of medium-term macroeconomic trends (including five-year projections and impact of monetary easing in OECD countries on Asia), country-specific structural policy notes and a thematic focus which varies in each volume, OECD said on its website.

– By arrangement with the ANN/The Brunei Times –