THE growing water crunch is often cited as the next biggest threat to Pakistan’s internal security, people and economy after terrorism. Pakistan is already classified as one of the most water-stressed countries because of climatic change, population growth and inefficient use of the resource. More worrying is the fact that water stress is fast developing into water scarcity. Different studies show that per capita water availability has decreased immensely since Pakistan’s inception, mainly because of population growth. In other words, our people today have access to only one-fifth of the water they had at the time of independence. The country’s population is predicted to double by 2050, meaning that the people will have access to just half the water in 2050 they have now even if they start using the available resource efficiently and climatic changes don’t reduce flows in the Indus river system.

So when a top water and power ministry official tells legislators that the country is likely to experience a drought situation 12 years from now if immediate action is not taken to “improve storage and conservation capacity” he is not off the mark. An ADB report has already underlined the need for increasing the storage capacity, the amount of water in reserve in case of an emergency, which currently stands at 30-days’ supply. This is far below the recommended 1,000 days for countries with a similar climate. Any emergency can push the country into socio-economic turmoil. Our cities are already experiencing reduction in water availability owing to excessive pumping of ground water.

Water shortages can have severe political, economic and social ramifications going forward. Some implications of the increasing demand for water for both agricultural and non-agricultural use are already manifesting themselves in the form of inter-provincial water disputes. This has led many — from farmers to opposition politicians to ministers to jihadi groups — to blame India, the upper riparian, for Pakistan’s water crunch. It isn’t without reason that some experts have warned of water wars in South Asia, one of the world’s most water-stressed regions. Moreover, water scarcity can take an enormous toll on the economy and food security. And all this because successive governments have failed to invest in this sector. The situation can still be salvaged. But it’ll require efficient use of water, the development of more storage capacity, resolution of provincial water disputes as well as engagement with India to find a peaceful solution to trans-boundary water-sharing. Unless effective actions are taken now, the future appears grim.