IT’S back to the negotiating table, predictably, after a burst of punishing air strikes that are said to have rattled the Taliban. It is, however, not the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) who blinked first. The ceasefire announcement seems to have come only after the government gave the assurance of keeping its guns silent. Surely the armistice has taken the banned group off the hook, allowing them to regain the initiative. The Sharif government seems to have rather wittingly got itself into a trap yet again, with no stomach to take the militant challenge head-on.

There has been no repentance on the beheading of the FC soldiers or for the latest attack on the polio team; never mind — instead, hail the Taliban’s magnanimity in returning to the “peace talks”. Bow before the TTP chief, Mullah Fazlullah, the butcher of Swat who not long ago claimed responsibility for killing a senior Pakistan army general. Forget about that gruesome video of militants playing football with the severed heads of soldiers. Bygones are bygones; let’s move ahead, we are told. But have the mass murderers suddenly turned peaceniks? Quite the contrary.

Hours after the truce announcement, gunmen struck the Islamabad court compound. Not surprisingly, the TTP denied any involvement. But the reports suggest that an affiliated faction was responsible for the audacious attack right in the heart of the nation’s capital. The nexus between the various militant groups cannot be refuted. But does this really matter to the administration so eager to placate them?

It’s a typical case of plausible deniability that we have experienced many times in the past. For sure, the most vociferous defence of the Taliban’s “innocence” comes from the ministers and members of the government’s negotiating team. It is a conspiracy to sabotage the talks, they shout after each attack. But who is that villain? The fingers are invariably pointed towards some invisible foreign hand.

In fact, the talks were never off the table, they only went off the media glare amid the thunder of the assault launched by fighter jets on militant sanctuaries in North Waziristan. Apparently, back-channel contacts had not broken down even when the jet fighters were pounding terrorist sanctuaries. A ceasefire agreement is now in place. But there is certainly no apparent reason for optimism. This vainglory is not expected to last long.

Now the tough task ahead: what are the two sides going to talk about? How long will this truce hold with dozens of TTP factions having their own agendas? It’s anybody’s guess. The Islamabad court attack clearly demonstrates how easy it is for the TTP to hide behind other militant groups. There has not been any cessation in terrorist attacks while the security forces have been ordered to step back.

This lowering of the guard has placed the TTP back in the driving seat after the precision military strikes are said to have crippled its operational nerve centre in North Waziristan and its capacity to carry out major terrorist attacks. The biggest success of the brief military campaign was the killing of some senior militant commanders that brought the TTP under immense pressure. There was a tangible decline in terrorist attacks over that short period. But all that seems to have been in vain. There is a danger that the few gains made in the latest military strikes could be lost on the negotiating table, revitalising the terror network.

It is a shrewd tactical move by the TTP leadership to agree to a ceasefire for one month, throwing the ball once again in the government’s court. For them the truce has served the major purpose of getting army action stopped during the winter when the mobility of its fighters is restricted by harsh weather.

With the advent of spring, they can scatter in the mountains — making it more difficult for the security forces to fight this asymmetric battle. While the TTP seems to have a clear strategy, the government remains completely confused, with no clear thinking about what it really wants to achieve in the talks.

It is quite obvious that the TTP’s main interest is to secure the release of some of its key commanders and get the army to pull back from parts of Waziristan. The longer the negotiations drag on, more things go in the Taliban’s favour. They can continue to play the game of deception, taking advantage of the prevalent confusion in government and its lack of will to fight. And what menu can the government put on the negotiating table? No one knows.

One thing, however, seems to be clear: the talks have legitimised the banned terrorist outfit, though there is no indication of it agreeing to abide by the law of the land. It is illegal to form armed militias and by engaging in talks with the proscribed armed group, the government could itself be held to have violated the Constitution. This will set a dangerous precedent, further weakening an already eroding state authority.

For the Taliban the talks are just a ploy to gain time and space. By entering into an unconditional negotiation with a terrorist group, the government has undermined the very security of the nation. The earlier the government gets out of this self-perpetuated deception, the better it would be for the country’s stability. This policy of one step forward, two steps back cannot bring peace, only more death and destruction.

The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com