PRESIDENT Ashraf Ghani’s diatribe against Pakistan over a recent wave of attacks in the heart of Kabul and other major cities amply mirrors the lingering mistrust between the neighbours. With the security situation getting grimmer, he appears to be bitterly frus­­trated with what he perceives to be Islamabad’s reluctant response to his peace overtures.

His allegation of Pakistan’s continued support to the Taliban constitutes a stock response from a technocrat who has invested significant domestic political capital in reaching out to Islamabad. Ghani’s optimism about Pakistan reinforcing his position has been dented substantially, leaving his detractors in a state of euphoria.

The militant strikes are reminiscent of the complex security environment in Afghanistan after the pullout of foreign combat troops. Last week’s killing of more than 50 people in less than 24 hours highlighted the relentless nature of the insurgency despite the decade-long Western military deployment.

The world should not allow Afghanistan to drop off the agenda again.

Ghani’s remarks came on the heels of his telephone call with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, whose administration brokered the July 7 parleys between Afghan government and Taliban representatives. But a second round of the direct talks was put on ice after news broke of the reclusive Taliban supremo Mullah Omar’s death.

The information emerged two days ahead of the crucial meeting in Pakistan — a development that laid bare the sharp divisions within the group and set off jockeying for the leadership slot. The shape of the war has changed and President Ghani no longer wants Pakistan to bring the fighters to the negotiating table, but to crack down on their activities.

One may well ask why Omar’s demise was kept under wraps for two years. The answer is fairly obvious: to mask infighting and keep the movement’s morale intact. Omar and the unity that his name lent to the movement somehow became expedient, either politically or militarily, for the Afghan government, the Taliban, Pakistan and other major actors.

The belated disclosure of his passing throws into bold relief some of the opaque dynamics of the ongoing conflict, which can be brought to an end through sincere regional cooperation.

For those who learn from history, it is never too late to correct past mistakes. The world should not allow Afghanistan, which had long been abandoned after the Soviet withdrawal and gradually became a stomping ground for terrorists, to drop off the agenda again. Hemmed in by difficult challenges, the country merits greater global assistance now that it is led by a reform-minded president.

Akhtar Mansour’s ascendancy has been the subject of bickering among senior rebel leaders. Tayeb Agha — head of the Taliban’s diplomatic delegation in Doha — has resigned along with another colleague. Omar’s brother Abdul Manan Hotak, his son Muhammad Yakoub, Abdul Qayyum, Abdur Razzaq, Mohammad Rasool, Mohammad Hassan and Abdul Salam have refused to pledge allegiance to him.

Mansour disappointed many with his maiden public statement. Given his contemptuous rejection of talks, he was presumably coerced into endorsing the Murree meeting. He has to walk a tightrope in order to contain further rifts and rein in the commanders who are intent upon fighting to the bitter end.

Mansour must realise that civilians continue to bear the brunt of the insurgent-linked violence. According to the Kabul-based UN mission, in the first six months of 2015 a record number of women and children featured among the casualties of violence in Afgha­nistan. So-called collateral damage on the whole reached unpre­cedented levels, with 70pc of casualties cau­­sed by the insurgents.

For now, the Taliban are finding it difficult to retain the unity they demonstrated under Omar, whose decisions were accepted as religious edicts. His presence in Afghanistan was the principal reason for the total acceptance of his orders and the ferocity of the insurgency. The group maintained a sense of independence under the one-eyed leader, who defined elusiveness and epitomised dogged resistance for over a decade.

With negotiations stalled for now, the embryonic thaw in Afghan-Pakistan relations has predictably run into trouble. A return to the blame game obviously represents a troubling scenario, something that Mansour must not lose sight of. Will he step out of the shadows to stake out his stance on women’s rights, civilian killings and suicide attacks?

Endowed with a rare instinct for survival, the founder of the Islamist movement stood firm against superpower dictates. At this point in time, it is difficult to accurately assess the impact of Omar’s passing on the future of the movement. One can, however, say with some certainty that at the moment, the Taliban no longer look like the monolith they were under their founder, who had an iron will and nerves of steel. It remains to be seen if Mansour really carries the imprimatur of Omar’s leadership.

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Peshawar.

Published in Dawn, August 17th, 2015

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