Prof Sarosh Lodi.—White Star

KARACHI: The magnitude of Karachi as the financial, social and economic hub of the country does not add up to the risk it faces from natural disasters such as tsunamis, cyclones and especially earthquakes. With insufficient disaster management preparedness in the city, Karachi is in a very vulnerable position.

This was the peg of the round-table discussion organised by the Institute of Architects Pakistan (IA), Karachi Chapter, on ‘Disaster risk reduction, earthquake and disaster management 2015’ on Thursday. Experts working for different national and international disaster management and rehabilitation centres and agencies, civil engineers as well as architects, came forth to chart out an effective strategy for seismic hazard and risk assessment in a city situated in a highly active tectonic setting.

Prof Sarosh Lodi said “Karachi is very similar to Los Angeles in terms of geology and demography” and therefore the active fault lines both cities were built on made them highly vulnerable to earthquakes of varying magnitudes. What set the two apart was the manner in which infrastructure was built to withstand such calamities.

Despite these parallels in seismic hazards, Pakistan lacks historical documentation, has limited seismic data and has shown just plain disregard in ensuring building typologies to be consistent with regulations. All these combined have left the city susceptible to widespread damage in case of a major earthquake, said Dr Lodi.

Prof Lodi has dedicated almost 30 years of his life to studying evolving seismic activity in Karachi. The dean of faculty of civil engineering and architecture at the NED university, he elaborated how “almost two-thirds of the city has no engineering input with regards to building structures and thus are ill-equipped to withstand the peak ground acceleration of a major earthquake”.

His presentation comprised extensive data collection in a bid to investigate the safety of Karachi’s skyline. Prof Lodi’s main thrust was on the seismic threat and vulnerability of Karachi. He stressed that it should be classified as a higher-level seismic zone than it was at present.

Ahmed Kamal from the National Disaster Management Authority charted the vulnerabilities Pakistan faced on national, provincial and city levels. As per various international assessments, Pakistan falls in the top 10, from among 181 countries, most vulnerable to climate change, and Mr Kamal said enough was not being done to prepare for the long-term repercussions if disaster hit.

He said Pakistan was facing multiple hazards. From inconsistent behaviour of the monsoon, melting glaciers in the northern areas, flooding, drought, higher frequency of cyclones, and overall extreme changes in climate, the societal impacts of those hazards were too great to quantify through mere research. “This is why we require a multi-hazard early warning system to tackle head-on the continual progression of such natural calamities,” he said.

He lamented the lack of coordination between federal and provincial departments in mitigating the effects of natural disaster. This, he said, added to the impact of the disaster.

The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015 was also a topic of discussion. The guidelines provided in the framework have been adapted by governments around the world with the aim of reducing the vulnerabilities of populations to natural hazards and therefore reduce disaster losses.

Pakistan has also adopted the framework and has ensured disaster risk reduction on a national level to be of utmost priority. However, implementation is lacking on several agendas as prescribed in the HFA, and this may cause large-scale human and economic losses that will be difficult to overcome.

Building codes, or lack thereof, was a subject that Tahir Shamshad tackled. The vice president of Nespak, Islamabad, he criticised the lack of building codes for various constructions in Karachi, which is earthquake prone because of its geographical location.

Ad hoc provisions in building codes, poor evaluation of construction sites along with shabby constructions contribute to higher levels of vulnerability to earthquakes. “Poor construction plans in place today do not leave room even for evacuation measures in case of a major earthquake,” he warned.

Participants in the discussion agreed on the necessity of giving disaster risk reduction a more organised trajectory, and bringing together individuals and organisations under one umbrella for efforts to be more widespread and proactive.

Published in Dawn, August 28th, 2015

On a mobile phone? Get the Dawn Mobile App: Apple Store | Google Play