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| RAWALPINDI: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif chairs the National Command Authority’s meeting here on Wednesday.—INP |
ISLAMABAD: The National Command Authority (NCA) concluded on Wednesday that India’s rapidly growing nuclear programme and absence of a conflict resolution mechanism were upsetting strategic stability in the region and the situation was compelling Pakistan to maintain ‘full-spectrum deterrence capability’.
According to ISPR, the apex policy-making body for the country’s strategic programme reviewed in its meeting the regional security environment and was briefed on fast-paced strategic and conventional capability developments taking place in the neighbourhood.
Contrary to international estimates which give a watered down view, Pakistani assessment is that India has enough fissile material, both reactor- and weapon-grade plutonium, for more than 2,000 warheads.
A paper published by the International Institute of Strategic Studies this year noted: “New Delhi’s plutonium stocks also continue to pile up; according to one Pakistani assessment, by the end of 2013 India had produced enough weapons- and reactor-grade plutonium (0.8-1tn and 15tn respectively) for 2,000 warheads.”
The NCA’s reference to the speed with which India is developing its nuclear programme follows reports by US think tanks Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Centre which said Pakistan had the fastest growing nuclear programme and could have the third largest nuclear stockpile within five to 10 years.
The concerns expressed by the NCA also pertained to India’s growing strategic capabilities in the form of new weapon systems including submarine-launchable, intercontinental and medium-range ballistic missiles and improvements in its ballistic missile defence. There are no estimates available on Indian missile inventories.
The NCA also noted with concern India’s rapidly expanding conventional military asymmetry and dangerous limited conventional war policy called Cold Start doctrine.
Relations between Pakistan and India have been on a steep downslide since the Bharatiya Janata Party government came into power in New Delhi last year. The bilateral dialogue on disputes has been suspended since January 2013, while escalating skirmishes along the Kashmir Line of Control and Working Boundary have fuelled tensions. There have been indications from Pakistani defence circles that India could be planning an incursion -- something which was also reflected in Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif’s Defence Day speech in which he said that Pakistan was ready for both “cold or hot start”.
“The NCA re-affirmed that the state remains fully cognisant of the evolving security dynamics of South Asia and will take all measures to safeguard its national security,” the military’s public relations wing said.
It said the NCA resolved to maintain full-spectrum deterrence capability in line with the dictates of credible minimum deterrence against all forms of aggression.
MESSAGE OF PEACE: “Pakistan seeks peace and strategic stability in South Asia as cornerstone of its policy and considers conflict resolution as the means to achieving this end,” the NCA said.
Pakistan has been pointing out the absence of a conflict-resolution mechanism as a complicating factor and believes that it is must not only for peace and strategic stability in the region but also for economic development.
The NCA said that Pakistan, being a responsible nuclear state, would remain actively engaged with the international community on nuclear stability and security issues.
“Pakistan shares the goals of non-proliferation and is committed to play its due role as a mainstream partner in the global non-proliferation regimes,” the statement said, adding that the meeting renewed the interest in joining the multilateral export-control regimes on a non-discriminatory basis; including membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
The meeting was presided over by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and attended by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar, Adviser on National Security and Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Chairman Gen Rashad Mehmood, the three services chiefs and the director general of the strategic plans division.
Published in Dawn, September 10th, 2015
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Comments (80) Closed
Sep 10, 2015 09:23am
I don't think Pakistanis need to fear as India has already announced "NO first use" doctrine. If Pakistan does the same ,people of both nations can sleep in peace. In such a scenario even 5000 warheads would make no difference.
For any country , to deter the enemy about 10 to 20 warheads is more than enough. If nuclear war is set in motion, there won't be enough time to launch the 2000 !!
Let us hope the ruling class of both the countries should realise this and focus on nation building.
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Sep 10, 2015 09:32am
@C.K: I say Amen.
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Sep 10, 2015 09:37am
Peace and stability cannot coexists along with proxy wars..
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Sep 10, 2015 09:38am
Any confrontation between nuclear powers is a perfect catch 22, you strike 2nd or 1st, either way you are dead. Ironic enough to be called M.A.D.
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Sep 10, 2015 09:38am
We know the enemy very well.
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Sep 10, 2015 09:39am
and both countries continue to spend billions on weapons that may never be used, our people are worse off for it, and the western corporations keep getting richer by adding fuel to the fire,
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Sep 10, 2015 09:41am
The world know that India has no intention to use Nuclear energy as a Bomb in first place. India is and will be diverting this enriched to its power reactors not to make Bombs..
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Sep 10, 2015 09:42am
The people will only sleep in peace when India and Pakistan agree to dispose all their nuclear bombs. Announcement of "no first use" has no value as the government of any country can take U-turn any time.
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Sep 10, 2015 09:43am
Hi C.K., good to have this policy on India's part. But given India's conventional superiority, Pakistan cannot have such a doctrine. How about a no war policy or a no war pact? This would be even better and all can sleep in even more peace.
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Sep 10, 2015 09:49am
India is one of the most peaceful countries in the world and the world knows this.
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Sep 10, 2015 10:17am
@HJ
Good suggestion
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Sep 10, 2015 10:22am
It is good decision to keep broadcast deterrence capability by Pakistan
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Sep 10, 2015 10:26am
@A Shah so whats the prob
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Sep 10, 2015 10:53am
Well nukes quantity doesn’t matter but it’s quality and destruction capability which matters… India has high yield 500-700 kt thermo nuclear weapons, plus we are developing high yield 1000 kt thermo nuclear weapons which is 20 times more destructive than normal nuke weapons
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Sep 10, 2015 10:54am
@umair well said brother
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Sep 10, 2015 10:55am
25 to 30 nukes are sufficient to destroy enemy …then what’s the point of making more nukes, as it’ll rarely come in use…. Already we’ve had enough nukes, now we don’t need nuke empowerment but we need economic empowerment, otherwise without war this country will slowly comes to economic collapse in next 10-15 years
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Sep 10, 2015 10:59am
Both nations are foolish to spend on military instead of welfare, but if a politician isn't foolish then he's not a polotician at all.
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Sep 10, 2015 11:01am
@HJ How good is to have a no proxy war pact? How good will it be to accept LOC as IB?
Then both nations can spend much less on their respective defence needs.
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Sep 10, 2015 11:20am
I am happy to see balanced and sensible comments from both sides below this article. Nuclear bombs wont win you wars, humanity will lose war forever. Pakistan and India should sign no war pact for at least 20 years. Billions are being spent on weapons which can be spent in welfare of the citizens of both countries.
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Sep 10, 2015 11:23am
True... ‘Full-spectrum deterrence capability’ is need of the hour... Emerging threats and capabilities can effectively be checked by also creating policies and programs related to cyber security, intelligence, counter-terrorism and homeland security...
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Sep 10, 2015 11:26am
People seem to be getting confused. India does not actually have 2000 war heads, they have the material needed to make 2000 war heads, but not the war heads themselves. India has 90-110 war heads and Pakistn has 100-120. These numbers are taken from the 2015 Federation of Anerican Scientists report.
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Sep 10, 2015 11:30am
hilarious arguments presented here
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Sep 10, 2015 11:34am
India and Pakistan to sign agreement for not not attacking each other and if attcked than attacking country has to pay some huge money like USD 200Billion and if nuclear is used than USD500Billion and let international forums be entitled to force country to pay off. No country can pay such huge fine.
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Sep 10, 2015 11:39am
Pakistan has nothing to fear from India.India is building it's nuclear capability as a counterweight to China
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Sep 10, 2015 11:45am
To keep balance in the region broadest deterrence capability is essential. We must enhance our nuclear program in prudent manner.
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Sep 10, 2015 11:53am
I think leaders of both countries should be made to watch the movie Dr Strangelove at least 20 times.
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Sep 10, 2015 11:58am
Let Raheel meet Modi, figure out a deal like Bangladesh India agreement, and close matter once for all.
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Sep 10, 2015 12:01pm
I wonder why everyone is so worried about Pakistan's nuclear capabilities.
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Sep 10, 2015 12:15pm
The government should not talk about this subject in Public. There is no need to bring it up in the media. Somethings are better unsaid
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Sep 10, 2015 12:16pm
@HJ : Lovely thought and indeed wishful thinking that leads to only one road : Progress and Prosperity for all.
But till K word exists, it seems it's impossible from Pakistani side... China has portion of Kashmir no one cribs about that in India.. We learnt to forget it and progress... So first politicians need to mature then imbibe it in public slowly..
Germans had differences... Fought wars... Now stand united.. Wish that maturity comes in minds of fanatics .. But it takes away their bread and butter..
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Sep 10, 2015 12:21pm
@HJ Dear HJ
India may prepare itself keeping in mind growth of China's Military power in recent years. Remember we have a bad experience with them in 1962 and India's recent preparations may not be against Pakistan but is to keep a balance with China. In my opinion, the only way to improve ties with Pakistan is increased people to people contacts and a larger role by civil society
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Sep 10, 2015 12:24pm
Is it not better to befriended with india, forge strong economical ties and let the any doubt of offence by india, as no country wants to deter its economy and interest.
Two ways always be there, either become adversary and match them nail to nail or just get become ally ,I.e, Sri Lanka,Bangladesh,Nepal ,Bhutan, Afghanistan with much larger responsibility. Believe me, Indians don't have any grudge towards Pakistan.
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Sep 10, 2015 12:26pm
Pakistan had got used to the earlier congress govt. Right or wrong, now they have deal BJP govt. which is clearly different from both earlier congress or Vajpai govt. India knows how to adjust to changing scenery in Pakistan...now Pakistan will need to adjust itself to changing scenery in India.
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Sep 10, 2015 12:30pm
Dear Mr. NS, there will never be any comparison between Pakistan and Indian military. The asymmetry will always be there. We have our eyes on China. So drink chilled water and relax.
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Sep 10, 2015 12:31pm
Our Nuclear bombs are for "Peaceful" purposes.
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Sep 10, 2015 12:31pm
India's stock of fissile material might be weapons-grade, but it is primarily intended for electricity generation, not nuclear bombs. Building 2000 nuclear bombs would be an enormous waste. It will take a fraction of that to destroy the whole world. Pakistan will gain a much better competitive advantage over India if it uses its money and nuclear technology to generate electricity and jobs for its people, rather than wasting it on nuclear bombs, which are unlikely to be ever used, and if used, would lead to the complete destruction of the entire region.
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Sep 10, 2015 12:34pm
@A Shah well said bro
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Sep 10, 2015 12:36pm
Are you kidding me 2000 warheads are enough to destroy this world multiple times...
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Sep 10, 2015 01:01pm
I don't understand what's the fascination with stockpiling nuclear weapons? If it comes to worse even one or two would be enough. Why talk about having hundreds and thousands?
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Sep 10, 2015 01:15pm
india will never wants war it can't afford a war. War in 2015 or future war means end of the countrys.end of mankind
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Sep 10, 2015 01:18pm
War does not determine who is right, only who is left.
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Sep 10, 2015 01:53pm
Can nuclear weapons be converted safely to be used for energy purposes ?
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Sep 10, 2015 02:00pm
Only way we can be safe is develop economy too as without strong economy we cannot fight wars , hence only option is to merge politically and economically with China.
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Sep 10, 2015 02:08pm
@Imran , Indian defence preparedness is not Pakistan specific but China specific. So long, China is a Nuclear armed nation, we have very little option to dump our Nuclear arsenals.
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Sep 10, 2015 02:10pm
Completely agree with NCA's statements.
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Sep 10, 2015 02:12pm
US and European countries have economic interests in India, they overlooking whatever wrong or right India do but take up strongly nuclear and human rights issues with all those countries where they have no or little economic interests. Pakistan has every right to do whatever it can to maintain effective nuclear deterance.
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Sep 10, 2015 02:35pm
I can guarantee, India will always follow "no first use" policy. Whole world trust us ,that's why we have been given waiver from NSG ( nuclear supplier group).
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Sep 10, 2015 02:40pm
The scariest part of all this is that even if one country fires a missile with conventional warhead against another country it could escalate into a nuclear war. The radars will only recognise the missile that is fired, not the warhead it carries.
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Sep 10, 2015 02:46pm
A common man is not concerned with such stuff. He's more concerned about earning basic livelihood for his family. Poverty and Unemployment have been plaguing both the countries since decades. A common man is happy if he lives a decent life and nothing else bothers him or her, irrespective of the fact he's an Indian or a Pakistani National. Its the great political minds of both the countries that have been busy clashing with each other over issues that can be easily settled. So why not join hands and work to eradicate the common problems. No matter India has such war capabilities or pakistan has such capabilities, the sad state of affairs is the people of both the nations don't even think in such a manner, rather its the common sense of the Governments that seems to have been eclipsed by their egos,stupid claims and actions.
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Sep 10, 2015 02:47pm
Let the two countries engage in Economic affairs who can be economic super power. Let our war starts on this direction which will bring peace and prosperity to both Nations. War or Nuclear war is not a child game. it not only destroys valuable wealth but it will deteriorate average financial health of both the countries and people. We must not forget that former Soviet Union was disintegrated purely on Economic issues without any war with USA. Let us cooperate not be hostile with each other. Prosperity of one nation can help other if we have good friendly relations.
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Sep 10, 2015 02:56pm
In addition to Plutonium, India also discovered vast amounts of Uranium in the year 2011 at Tummalapalle in the southern state of AP (enough sources are available online). Initial studies seem to suggest that the mine at the very least has 49000 tonnes of Uranium dioxide and a maximum of 1.71 lakh tonnes. That would make it among the world's largest mine of Uranium.
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Sep 10, 2015 02:57pm
India's arms expansionist approach will only cause further instability and unrest and add to the misery of the already desperate people of South Asia. Pakistan has no other option but to race with India in arms race to ensure its security and stability in case of Indian aggression. Already, the two neighbouring countries are engaged in daily skirmishes at LoC and Working Boundary causing death and destruction. Pakistan approached the policy of dialogue and table since BJP assumed power but to no avail. One cannot clap with one hand. Hence, the two sides are required sit on the table to discuss problems tantalizing them as there is no other option except talks.
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Sep 10, 2015 03:11pm
Pakistan wants No war treaty with India...India wants No first use...Why is India afraid
to sign this treaty of no war...Pakistan knows its enemy very well.
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Sep 10, 2015 03:18pm
It is Indian's policy to make Pakistan economically weaker. We are manitaining a huge army and nuclear weapons which are highly expensive to maintain. See the example of USSR. It could not afford to survive. India is a big country. She can maintain big army for a longer duration than us. By increasing expense on nuclear weapons, we are going into the trap of India.
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Sep 10, 2015 03:27pm
@C.K.: "No first use doctrine" was not reciprocated by Pakistan because it believes that "first use" of nukes is an effective deterrence for the enemy. As a layman Pakistani, I want peace, and deterrance seem like a good peace measure.
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Sep 10, 2015 03:40pm
The simple formula Pakistan giving to India is that if they think that India have 2000 nuclear warheads, they will try to keep around 5000 warheads...so India should keep at least 10,000..keeping in view double threat from both the side left & right dangerous neighbors.....what a none sense.....please don't do this...instead resolve your differences and do something constructive not destructive.
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Sep 10, 2015 03:50pm
@HJ Of course India would like to sign NO WAR PACT provided Pakistan signs a NO PROXY WAR PACT. We need Peace & progress, need to improve our economy, create more jobs, eradicate poverty . etc... for that war is not a solution.
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Sep 10, 2015 03:58pm
Your proliferation record is very poor that is why the world does not have confidence in you. You have to do something about it to lift the confidence of world community. May be more transparent and clarity regarding AQ Parity with India till that date will elude you.
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Sep 10, 2015 04:09pm
It is true. Indians should not be allowed to remain unchecked. Please set up a committee to put the necessary check in place.
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Sep 10, 2015 04:20pm
Why is our country so obsessed with India and Bollywood....we need to first repair and strengthen our economy....India has already overtook us and is leading in all aspects in world economy.....please stop talking about India.....
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Sep 10, 2015 04:25pm
@rana nasir - yes we also do
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Sep 10, 2015 04:34pm
To my opinion Nuclear weapons possessed by both the nations have deterred each other from going to conventional wars. With its conventional might and Cold Start Doctrine India will quickly dominate leaving Pakistan completely vulnerable. Pakistan at this stage will be left with no choice but to respond by going nuclear. Both the countries are aware of this and hence don’t divulge into things which may quickly escalate to an war.
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Sep 10, 2015 04:35pm
It's assymetery in jingoism rather than nuclear stockpile that's the cause of concern. One nuclear device as good as a thousand to register effect. Either country will be insane to think of nukes as weapons, whatever the situation be
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Sep 10, 2015 04:42pm
Our leaders are fooling us. We have almost 2 times the nuclear capability of India. They are just fooling us, so that they get funds for the military
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Sep 10, 2015 04:48pm
@A Shah. Hmmm! having fought three wars with Pakistan. One war with China. Getting humiliated in Sri Lanka. Attacking a sovereign country Myanmar for alleged terrorists that it claims were there.
Yes very peaceful country. And the World thanks you for that.
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Sep 10, 2015 05:13pm
for india real enemy is not pakistan, someone else, so most of our defense related matters are are focused to that, pak should not come across the enmity.
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Sep 10, 2015 05:25pm
It is basically a repeat of the end of the cold war. The financially stronger one, will win and the other forced to give up as it runs out of cash.
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Sep 10, 2015 05:39pm
@C.K.- Noble Thoughts but only for Pakistan?
If India does NOT fear Pakistan, why its spending 300 Billion dollars on acquring new weapons? Why it has a rapidly expanding unchecked nuclear program? Why it does not sit down and talk peace with Pakistan rather than making excuses for 68 years now? WHy India does not spend same 300 Billion dollars to help almost ONE Billion Indians who sleep hungry daily and live in sheer poverty comprising half of such people globally. No wonder India has almost one dozen secessionist movements going on.
Give your lovely Bhashan to Modi and others who openly hurl threats against Pakistan (out of frustration) daily. Let us know if you could change their minds...will ya?
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Sep 10, 2015 05:57pm
@HJ getting India involved in proxy war now and then, I don't think India can even think of "no war" policy.
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Sep 10, 2015 05:59pm
@Kamal can u pls elaborate those dozen secessionist movements..?
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Sep 10, 2015 07:50pm
as long as modi is in power he will keep pushing and prodding Pakistan to keep the prospects of war on everyone's mind.
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Sep 10, 2015 07:50pm
@Junaid well said , I feel same, to be honest we are not at all Pakistan centric, we have our own issues and own ambition to be happy country, I think Pakistan needs to be looking into its own problem than thinking india, we really are not bothered by Pakistan apart from extremism
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Sep 10, 2015 08:02pm
Pakistan needs to be more open and assertive with the choice of words. Its the western powers in particular America reckless patronage of India since 90s specially with regards to the Indian nuclear program which is the sole cause of Pakistan re-evaluating its own nuclear program. American reckless and unwise actions has directly put Pakistan security in jeopardy by giving full access to India in nuclear technology , which left Pakistan with no option but to respond.
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Sep 10, 2015 08:34pm
i feel sad for common people in both the countries specially Pakistan where corruption, education, poverty, Health services, Infrastructure are those main issue where govt needs to focus on rather than spending huge money on weapons and asking more money from US and other countries if something goes wrong. Start spending money in your domestic issue rather than defence.
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Sep 10, 2015 09:20pm
Steps to peace : 1st No-proxy war pact , then comes no-war pact , then comes no-first-use pact then finally Kashmir !!
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Sep 10, 2015 09:24pm
By the way, this is they way to run a country. While Indian government and politicians were busy building their country, Pakistani politician were busy looting the country and hollowing its roots. A very stark difference between the two countries. Very unfortunate for Pakistan to have such luck.
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Sep 10, 2015 10:18pm
It is interesting to note that the Americans never highlight the dangers of India's growing nuclear arsenal . With Modi in charge things are even more dangerous.
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Sep 10, 2015 10:25pm
India's introduction of nuclear weapons, unnecessary military buildup and continued occupation of Kashmir has destabilized the entire region. Instead on focusing on the uplift of the poor masses in India where Millions are running away to Western nations they instead choose to continue antagonizing their neighbor and creating havoc in the region. Pakistan has the misfortune of being a neighbor to such an irresponsible country.
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Sep 10, 2015 10:59pm
@Burjor Rustomji Yes. The U.S. and Russia had such a program. Americans bought the Russian fissile material and blended it with fuel to convert 'megatons to megawatts' :)
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Sep 11, 2015 01:06pm
It cannot be disputed that nuclear deterrence is the key strategic factor safeguarding Pakistan’s national security. It is a right of self defence as enshrined in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. Unlike what many nations think, Pakistan’s weapons are primarily “weapons of deterrence”, not prestige. The short range delivery systems being developed are meant to plug the gaps Indian planners seek to exploit. Thus, Islamabad’s full spectrum deterrence has upset Indian designs and has frustrated them.
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