THE past 10 days have been excruciating for the Afghan forces, whose grip on security remains far from firm. Their ability to rout the Afghan Taliban, without air support from Nato troops, is open to question. A run of military reverses in the embattled north showed up the chinks in Kabul’s security strategy and the handicaps of its law-enforcement agencies.

In Kunduz city, the Taliban scored their most emphatic victory in a decade and a half. On Monday, they stormed the city at the break of dawn and ruled it by afternoon, as the army, police and intelligence operatives beat a hasty retreat. Looking at the Taliban’s steady inroads into the north over the past 13 months, the fall of Kunduz — coming with a nagging sense of déjà-vu — is a rude shock to Kabul.

This striking military failure has exposed the soft underbelly of the Afghan forces in dealing with the rebels, who will feel even more emboldened in the months ahead. On the contrary, the loss of territory will add to the woes of the Ashraf Ghani administration that has been unable to implement its ambitious reform agenda. To the president’s dismay, the capital of neighbouring Baghlan province and the Zar Aab district of Jawzjan are also teetering on the verge of collapse.

More than 10 months after Nato’s combat mission ended, the government forces continue to rely heavily on air support from international troops. An alarming attrition rate, a sharp rise in casualties and intensifying Taliban incursions have left the army and police spread too thin.

Kunduz has long been struggling with bad governance.

Local officials were kept posted for months on the Taliban’s infiltration into Kunduz, but they exhibited insouciance. Not only did they fail to take precautionary measures to check terrorist penetration, they were caught unawares when the city was assaulted.

Hours after a military push was launched to retake the city, there were reports of fighters entering five more districts in Badakhshan, Baghlan, Takhar and Kunduz. Incapable of withstanding the militant onslaught, the security personnel apparently fled.

Virtually on the run, the crestfallen forces argue their pullback was a tactical move to prevent possible collateral damage. In fact, it has turned out to be a farcical idea that did not pay off. Instead, the misstep hastened the reported collapse of more towns.

Although most of the militants have now been flushed out in a counteroffensive, parts of Kunduz are still being held by the ‘new rulers’. The government’s difficulties in reining in the insurgency following the mass withdrawal of foreign combat troops have been evident from the city’s fall — a morale booster for the Taliban who have found a critical base beyond their traditional strongholds in the south and east.

One awkward aspect to the collapse of Kunduz city — the final urban station the Taliban surrendered in 2001 — is that it coincided with the first anniversary of the national unity government. Only a few hundred guerrillas outgunned 7,000 Afghan security forces in a matter of hours!

Seizing the city, even if only for a few days, represents a symbolic feat for the rebel movement in terms of booty and publicity. The rebels emptied bank coffers besides snatching sophisticated weapons and armoured vehicles. The fleeting victory has given the new Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour a massive boost.

Even some of his detractors within and outside the movement have come to believe that Mullah Mansour can deliver more impressive wins on the battlefield in other parts of the country too. Under his leadership, the group will now have every reason to assert its supremacy over the Islamic State.

A busting commercial hub, Kunduz has long been struggling with bad governance, incompetence, rivalries between civilian and security organs, fragile institutions and widespread insecurity. Also a key transit route for drug smuggling to Central Asia and Russia, the city is a gateway to several provinces and shares a border with Tajikistan.

Despite a strong international military presence in the country for 14 years, several jihadi groups and militants from across the region — Arabs, Uzbeks, Chechens, Uighurs, Pakistanis and you name it — are said to be roaming about the rural parts of Kunduz.

One can assume with some degree of certainty the city’s fall may be a game-changing moment, with Ghani’s policy of reconciliation with his armed opponents having run into snags. Rosy assessments that Afghanistan will succeed in fending for itself after the pullout of foreign troops have proved to be incorrect.

The Kunduz debacle is just one example of the consequences of international neglect of Afghanistan, which was allowed to drift after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. President Obama’s arbitrary troop withdrawal timetable needs a dispassionate review. Who says the “good war” has come to a responsible end?

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Peshawar.

Published in Dawn, October 4th, 2015

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