ISLAMABAD, Nov 20: Pakistan has posted a two per cent year-on-year expansion in rice production this year, according to estimates from the latest issue of ‘Rice Market Monitor’.

November marks the end of crop harvesting activities in Pakistan, and the production outlook for the country remains positive, as rice production is expected to expand to 9.4 million tons paddy or 6.3 million tons milled rice.

According to the monitor, the anticipated growth is expected to rely mostly on an expanded area, as farmers switched to cultivation of rice from other crops.

However, limited water availability for irrigation, due to a slow melting of glaciers, followed by precipitation shortfalls for much of July, slowed the progress of planting activities in Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan, observes the FAO rice monitor.

An upturn of monsoon rains in August provided much relief, although ensuring floods are also estimated to have damaged nearly 400,000 tonnes of paddy, mostly in Sindh and Balochistan, the report estimates.

The Rice Monitor forecast that rice shipments from the country may increase and a good crop and competitive pricing may enable exports by Pakistan to recover by 10 per cent to 3.3 million tonnes in 2013.

However in 2012, the export outlook has deteriorated further in Pakistan, which is now expected to deliver 3.0 million tonnes, 300,000 tonnes less than the previously reported and 2 percent below 2011 consignments. Much of the retrenchment reflects a poor performance in the Basmati rice segment, where the country has faced intense competition from India, particularly in Near Eastern markets.

The industry in Pakistan has also attributed loss of competitiveness to tighter availabilities of fragrant rice supplies, brought about by producers’ shift towards cultivation of hybrid rice.

FAO has upgraded its July forecast of paddy production in Asia by 3.1 million tonnes to 660.6 million tonnes (440.6 million tonnes, milled basis). Much of the revision reflects an improved outlook for India, where a revival of the rains on the latter part of the monsoon season boosted production prospects. At 660.6 million tonnes (440.6 million tonnes, milled basis), 2012 production in Asia would top the 2011 record outcome by 5.0 million tonnes.

Increasing rice production in Asia means that the region that consumes the most rice will not need to import so much of it. FAO forecasts that global rice trade in 2013 will reach 37.5 million tonnes (milled basis), marginally above the estimate for 2012, which was recently raised by more than 3 million tonnes to 37.3 million tonnes (milled), 2 percent more than in 2011 and an all-time record. The higher trade volume reflects expectations of large draw-downs from the huge inventories held by exporting countries as they make space for new crops.