Is this the beginning of a new, genuinely democratic era? Will the elections usher in a political phase different from what we have seen so far? How successfully has General (retd) Pervez Musharraf’s political engineering changed the electoral map? Or are we moving slowly to the same old political alignments that characterised the unsuccessful democratic experience we witnessed between 1988 and 1999? More fundamentally, perhaps, are we to gain something from going to elections at all at a time when security concerns are uppermost in the minds of most people in the country?

The answer to all these questions lies somewhere between our desperation with the existing order and our nervous anxiety about what the future might hold under a different dispensation — that is, if we end up with a different dispensation. This confused uncertainty about what we want and how we get it is, in fact, at the heart of Pakistan’s disastrous politics. It explains why we have been wavering between welcoming a military government when we feel betrayed by the politicians and vociferously demanding undiluted democracy when the military dictatorships start perpetuating themselves — citing national security and critical socio-economic circumstances that are always close at hand for convenience.

Whether it will be any different this time around is hard to tell before all the votes are polled and counted. Some analysts, for instance, doubt if the outcome of the February 2008 elections will change anything at all. The odds are stacked against any improvement in their opinion. In addition, the new parliament will be immediately faced with issues fundamental to the chain of events that have brought us to the present juncture. Defining the judiciary’s status will probably be the first challenge that the new legislature and the new government will have to grapple with even as it is sworn in. Its second challenge will be to decide the fate of the raft of laws, ordinances and decrees issued by Musharraf: should they be revoked or indemnified.

Either way, these decisions will define the way the political wind will blow after February 18. Following in their footsteps, the ‘war on terrorism’, Pakistan’s relationship with the US in particular and the West in general, difficult – if not impossible – economic choices and last but not least, the battle of ideas for winning or losing the hearts of ordinary Pakistanis are some of the issues that we will need immediate attention, regardless of who is the winner and who the loser on February 18.

But before all this comes to pass, winning and losing can be a more basic question that we may find ourselves struggling with. Allegations of election rigging, which are already resounding across the country, are sure to ring louder if polling is not seen as free and fair. What if the people finally stand up in resistance to the regime after feeling cheated at the polling booths? This scenario is as realistically possible as any other but perhaps more ominous and destabilising than all others.

Indeed, those who believe that the men in uniform and those in the civvies might have learned their lessons and may behave for the better future of the country need only to rewind the events of the past month or so. Since Benazir Bhutto’s murder on December 27, 2007 we have seen political parties engaged in a bitter and raucous blame game, with the so-called establishment chipping in blatantly on behalf of one side.

The only insurance that all our worst fears don’t materialise lies in all sides behaving democratically: the establishment should let the people exercise their right to vote freely and without fear, the political parties should concentrate on sending their political messages across instead of muckraking, the media should behave impartially and the electorate should come out of its political alienation and vote in big numbers to let its electoral preferences be clearly known.

Some may argue, and not without reason, that all this is a huge wish. Never before in the country’s history have such wishes been granted. They can further say that a judiciary under duress, a press in chains, an opposition at a serious advantage and an establishment bent upon having its way, come what may, are imbalances that do not guarantee a positive outcome on February 18. But we cannot resolve everything in one go and at the same time. A beginning has to happen somewhere and sometime. Why can’t we let it take place on February 18, behind the voting screens, where voters can exercise their choices? All other things being unequal, this and this alone can show the way to the future, no matter how imperfect and difficult the path may be. If democracy is to be resurrected in Pakistan, it has to happen at hundreds of thousands of polling booths, not in the cloistered corridors of power.