The uncertainty in the country may allow the people of the Punjab to vote independently of the establishment’s choice for once

Who will be Punjab’s chief minister after the February polls? Never before has this question fetched an uncertain answer — at least not since 1985. In 2002 Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi ran his campaign as if he were already the provincial chief executive. Before him, Shahbaz Sharif, Manzoor Wattoo and Nawaz Sharif, in the same order, were known to be running for the top job in the province much ahead of the polling day in 1997, 1993, 1990 and 1988 respectively.

So how does the fact that Elahi is now aspiring to become the prime minister help or hinder the cause of his party in Punjab? The clear answer to this question will emerge once all votes are polled and counted. However, the absence of a clear front-runner for the chief minister’s post leaves the field wide open for the establishment to manipulate the formation of the next provincial government. Only the voters can prevent this from happening: if they choose to hand a landslide victory to another one of the three main parties, the establishment will find it hard to defy the popular will and hoist its own man to head the government in the province.

The establishment is, therefore, out and about to ensure that the vote count does not stump it from its meddling height. If anecdotal evidence, media reports and the allegations being levelled by the opponents of the Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid-e-Azam are to be believed, government resources and machinery are being openly used to make people vote for the party that the establishment put together before 2002 and which still swears by General (retd) Pervez Musharraf. History is on the side of the establishment in this endeavour: a majority of voters in the Punjab have always voted for pro-establishment parties and individuals. Parties or candidates desiring to change this will, in fact, have to pit themselves against the collective might of the establishment and history.

But Mohammad Ali Durrani, information minister in the outgoing federal cabinet, believes the voting pattern in Punjab is predicated upon neither the establishment’s prowess nor history’s evidence. His party’s candidates, according to him, will win in Punjab because they are most likely to win. “People don’t waste their votes. They don’t generally vote for a losing candidate no matter how appealing his party’s ideology or how emotional the rhetoric of his leaders might be,” he tells the Herald. “Our party has the largest number of candidates who will win any way — regardless of the political circumstances of the day,” he says.

Others disagree. Jehangir Badar, secretary general of the Pakistan People’s Party, recalls how similarly strong candidates were fielded by the PML in 1970, only to fall against the virtually unknown members of his party. “This can happen yet again,” he says, but warns that the changed election economy may not let nonentities repeat their 1970 feat. “Elections involve so much expenditure that candidates from the middle and working class do not even become visible amid banners, posters and hoardings put up by their richer opponents,” says Badar.

Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, vice-president of the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz, is also optimistic that the February elections will be different from the past polls and may, therefore, spring some surprises. “This time, parties and ideologies are more important than individuals and personalities,” he tells the Herald on the phone from Multan while campaigning in one of the many constituencies he is contesting from.

But both Badar and Hashmi make it a point to mention what they call the establishment’s involvement in the electoral process on behalf of the PMLQ and its candidates. Not even for a day has Elahi become the former chief minister of Punjab. “He is still running the province as he did when he was actually heading the provincial government,” says Hashmi. Badar goes further into the past and says never in history has the establishment allowed the genuine representatives of the people to win, even when they got the highest number of votes.

Why should the situation be different this time round? “PPP voters will come out in numbers big enough to neutralise the establishment’s efforts,” says Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais, who teaches political science at the Lahore University of Management Sciences. He adds that the so-called swing vote in Punjab generally follows the way the wind blows. “A lot of voters in the province end up voting for the party they believe will come to power,” he says. “But for the February polls, the PPP will certainly capture some swing voters due to Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. They will be willing to put behind their doubts about Asif Ali Zardari’s probity or the chances of the party coming into power,” Rais says.

Durrani, however, feels that the current political circumstances are not unfavourable for his party’s electoral fortune. “The prospect of Zardari coming into power is demoralising even his own party’s supporters. The rejection of the nomination papers of Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif means that their supporters are not sure whom their votes will benefit,” he tells the Herald. In these circumstances, he says, personal incentives drive the people to vote. “Clan and family loyalties will matter more than ideology and party,” he adds. “This means that voter turnout in Punjab may be less than what it was previously.”

Rais warns that the lower the turnout, the easier it will be for the establishment to control the outcome of the election. He forecasts tough fights across the province and a high turnout. “With the removal of his uniform, Musharraf now represents a single-man establishment. The parties and candidates of his choice are no longer supported and aided by the army as they were in 2002. The administration and intelligence agencies are also not as active as they were before the last polls,” he says.

All this, along with the assassination of Bhutto and the presence of the Sharifs as opposed to being in exile, means that people will be not as scared of the establishment as they previously were. “People will be much less prepared to do the establishment’s bidding while voting because more uncertainty seems to be in the offing in contrast with 2002, when Musharraf’s continued rule was written in stone,” says Rais.

The uncertainty, therefore, may lead the people in the Punjab to vote as they have never done before. The fact that they don’t know the people likely to form the governments in Lahore and Islamabad may help them come out of the establishment’s shadow — at least for this election.

 

Seats Captured by Political Parties and Percentage Vote Share
Political Party	Seats Won	% of Total Votes
2002
PMLQ	68	34.27
PPP	35	26.42
MMA	3	5.38
PMLN	14	16.79
NA	7	3.41
Other Parties	7	4.81
Independent	14	8.92
Total	148	100
1997
PMLN	109	59.12
PPP	–	22.36
MQM	–	0.09
ANP	–	0.01
JUIF	–	0.01
PPPSB	–	0.13
PTI	–	1.71
PMLJ	–	3.46
Other Parties	–	2.44
Independent	6	10.67
Total	115	100
1993
PPP	50	39.32
PMLN	52	45.37
PMLJ	6	4.53
IJM	–	0.42
PIF	–	2.24
MDM	1	1.06
Other Parties	1	0.54
Independent	5	6.52
Total	115	100
1990
IJI	90	48.91
PDA	15	39.48
JUIF	–	0.17
JUP	3	1.78
PAT	–	1.55
Other Parties	1	0.15
Independent	6	7.96
Total	115	100
1988
PPP	52	39.75
IJI	45	36.72
JUIF	–	0.46
PAI	3	5.78
ANP	–	0.01
JUID	–	0.01
PNP	–	0.02
Other Parties	2	2.07
Independent	13	15.18
Total	115	100