In the wake of December 27, 2007, Bhutto’s party is set to win in the province, even in constituencies that are not PPP strongholds

The province of Sindh resounds with a single voice and a single message: “Vote Bhuttan jo kariz aa” (voting for the Bhuttos is a debt we owe). Indeed, following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, the province is bracing itself for a rerun of the election results from some 20 years ago.

In the 1988 polls, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) swept the entire province. Landlords, tribal chieftains and spiritual leaders such as the Jatois, Mahars and Pagaras lost to PPP-backed candidates from less-privileged backgrounds — virtual nobodies defeating established political leaders. The party, though fielding a less egalitarian mix of candidates (see “The Old Names — Yet Again”) this time seems set for a similar victory, even in areas where it has not done well traditionally.

PPP strongholds in Sindh include Larkana, Dadu, Sukkur, Hala, Shikarpur, Khairpur, Mirpurkhas, Tando Allahyar and Nawabshah. Its record is not as strong in Sanghar, a stronghold of the Pir of Pagara, Thatta, where the Shirazis hold sway and Naushero Feroze, dominated by the Jatois. Similarly, Arbabs control the Mithi and Tharparkar districts, Jatois the Mahar district, and Mahars the Ghotki district. Nevertheless, current reports from these areas suggest that the wave of sympathy in favour of the PPP may bring its candidates to power in constituencies in these districts as well. In fact, in many of these areas the pro-government or anti-PPP candidates are finding it difficult to campaign.

For instance, soon after Bhutto’s assassination, emotionally-charged mobs destroyed the personal property of Liaquat Ali Jatoi, a former Sindh chief minister. His house would also have been burnt down had local PPP leaders not stopped the angry rioters. Jatoi himself fled in a car bearing the PPP tri-colour as camouflage.

According to local residents, nearly a month after the assassination, he is still not able to venture out in his constituency. They say that it will be difficult for Jatoi to repeat his victory of 2002 in the February elections. “It is highly unlikely that he will win,” says Mohammad Bachal Sheikh, a resident of Mahar.

Westwards from Ghotki lies Larkana district. One of its seats, NA-205, was initially expected to see a tough contest: Altaf Hussain Unnar, the Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid-e-Azam (PMLQ) candidate, was expected to run close to the PPP-backed Hizbullah Bughio, an independent candidate. But post December 27, 2007, local analysts say Unnar is likely to lose.

In fact, insiders say that at least 30 pro-government candidates, who are either contesting the elections on PMLQ tickets or are backed by Pagara’s Muslim League – Functional, have written to party headquarters explaining that they cannot campaign in their respective constituencies. “Many candidates cannot move around,” says a PMLQ candidate, admitting that Bhutto’s death has dealt a major blow to the hopes of pro-government candidates in the province.

Reading the writing on the wall, many candidates from other parties have switched over to the PPP or withdrawn in favour of its candidates. For example, in Hyderabad and Tando Allahyar, Khokhar family candidates have withdrawn and announced their support for the PPP. Similarly, Mujeeb Peerzada, who was contesting as an independent candidate from Sukkur after he was denied a ticket by the PPP, has announced a boycott of the elections. He used the legal community’s call for a poll boycott to explain his decision, even though his announcement came weeks after Bhutto’s assassination.

However, not all pro-government candidates have given up. They are counting on state machinery. A case in point is Tharparkar, where former chief minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim and his family members are contesting elections. Rahim is reported to be using the police to harass voters. According to reports, his appointees – the Station House Officer and the District Police Officer of Mithi district – are openly harassing Rahim’s political opponents. Similarly in Jacobabad, where the sister of caretaker prime minister Mohammadmian Soomro is in the electoral race, pro-PPP candidates are being threatened with National Accountability Bureau cases if they do not withdraw in her favour.

In a bid to neutralise the misuse of the local administration and the police, the PPP has demanded that the army be deployed in Karachi, Tharparkar, Mirpurkhas, Umerkot, Khairpur, Sanghar and Jacobabad. However, the government has not responded to this demand yet. Nevertheless, observers agree that despite a less than neutral administrative and political set-up, the PPP-backed candidates are set to either win or put up unexpectedly tough fights in places such as Sanghar, Tharparkar, Mithi and Khairpur.

In fact, if the sympathy wave continues, some analysts can see the party winning between 40 and 50 of the province’s 61 National Assembly seats. And if this happens, the PPP will be in a position to form the provincial government without any other party’s support. How the state and the PMLQ react to that remains to be seen.
 

The old names – yet again

Most parties in the province have awarded their tickets to scions of tried and tested feudal families

The aura of invincibility around the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) ahead of February’s polls may be reminiscent of the mood in the province in the run-up to the 1988 elections, but there is a significant, depressing difference in this campaign.

Twenty years ago, the party fielded fresh faces from the middle class against members of powerful feudal families and won on the back of strong support from voters in rural Sindh. However, over the years, despite its remaining support among the lower classes, the party has evolved into one that promotes and colludes with the traditional political elite. So much so that this time the list of candidates from both the PPP and anti-PPP camps reads like a who’s who of Sindh’s feudal aristocracy. With few exceptions, the PPP has awarded party tickets to scions of feudal families.

For the people of Sindh, the choice is which feudal to support. In Jacobabad and Kashmore, the PPP candidates belong to the Jakhrani and Bijarani families, and they face the scions of the Soomro and Mazari clans. In Shikarpur, Bhayos, Aghas and Meeranis fielded by the PPP stand against Jatois and Mahars. In Ghotki, the PPP has fielded Fayyaz Khan Lund against the former chief minister of Sindh, Ali Mohammad Khan Mahar. Mirpurkhas will witness a contest between the PPP’s Mir Munawwar Ali Talpur and two scions of the Shah family. And last but not least, Roshan Ali Junejo, who had contested the 2002 elections on a Pakistan Muslim League – Functional ticket from Sanghar district, has this time been awarded a PPP ticket after he switched loyalties recently.

PPP officials say the only reason for this shift is that candidates from middle and lower middle class backgrounds cannot afford the heavy cost of campaigning for elections, as opposed to members of feudal families with plenty of personal wealth to bankroll a run to the assemblies.

That’s why, for example, Iqbal Memon, a man from a lower middle class background who won the NA-206, Kambar-Warah seat for the PPP in 2002, has been dropped this time in favour of Mir Amir Ali Khan of the Magsi clan. He will contest against Sardar Khan of the Chandio family. — M.A.

 

Seats Captured by Political Parties and Percentage Vote Share
Political Party	Seats Won	% of Total Votes
2002
PMLQ	4	8.94
PPP	27	36.6
MMA	6	10.65
PMLN	-	1.6
MQM	14	16.26
Other Parties	7	4.81
Independent	14	8.92
Total	148	100
1997
PMLN	109	59.12
PPP	–	22.36
MQM	–	0.09
ANP	–	0.01
JUIF	–	0.01
PPPSB	–	0.13
PTI	–	1.71
PMLJ	–	3.46
Other Parties	–	2.44
Independent	6	10.67
Total	115	100
1993
PPP	50	39.32
PMLN	52	45.37
PMLJ	6	4.53
IJM	–	0.42
PIF	–	2.24
MDM	1	1.06
Other Parties	1	0.54
Independent	5	6.52
Total	115	100
1990
IJI	90	48.91
PDA	15	39.48
JUIF	–	0.17
JUP	3	1.78
PAT	–	1.55
Other Parties	1	0.15
Independent	6	7.96
Total	115	100
1988
PPP	52	39.75
IJI	45	36.72
JUIF	–	0.46
PAI	3	5.78
ANP	–	0.01
JUID	–	0.01
PNP	–	0.02
Other Parties	2	2.07
Independent	13	15.18
Total	115	100