Rawalpindi rose to prominence in the pre-Partition period after it was occupied by the British troops in 1849 and made the headquarters of their northern command. After 1947 the district has not lost its significance — Rawalpindi city is the headquarters of the Pakistan Army. And considering the domination of the military in Pakistani politics, this is the true centre of power. In addition, a significant number of senior-ranking officers of the army also hail from different areas of the district. For instance, Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani belongs to the Gujjar Khan tehsil of Rawalpindi.

This city of Rawalpindi has been the site of many important political events in the country’s history. First was the murder of Pakistan’s first prime minister Liaquat Ali Khan, who was killed in 1951 while delivering a speech in a park smack in the middle of the city. Named after him, the Liaquat Bagh just recently witnessed the assassination of another former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto. She was killed on December 27, 2007 as she was leaving a PPP election rally in the park where she had delivered a speech. Benazir Bhutto’s father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was hanged in 1979 at Adiala Jail, also located in this city.

The much-talked about student movement against General Ayub Khan’s government too started from a polytechnic college in Rawalpindi after a student was killed here in 1967 by the police. Over twenty years later, the metropolis blew up again – literally – because of the explosions at Ojhri Camp, an army ammunition dumping site in Rawalpindi, on April 10, 1988, killing more than 100 people. The explosion became one of the causes for the removal of Mohammad Khan Junejo’s government by Ziaul Haq after the former demanded an inquiry into the incident. He suspected that senior military officials were involved in the ‘accident’ to cover up the embezzlement in arms delivery to Afghan Mujahideen.

Comprising seven tehsils, more than half of the district’s population lives in urban areas. Though Rawalpindi is the largest and most prominent city of the district, others such as Taxila, Gujjar Khan and Murree are also not entirely unknown: Taxila is home to an important archaeological site while Murree is a famous hill resort of the country.

With seven National Assembly constituencies in the district, Rawalpindi is home to several politicians of national stature who have played leading roles in national politics and governance during the tenures of various prime ministers. For instance, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, who won six consecutive times from Taxila tehsil, was considered the most powerful man after the prime minister during the two tenures of Nawaz Sharif. Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, another leading political figure from the area, has also made his mark on national politics. Former member of the National Assembly, Raja Pervez Ashraf, who belongs to Gujjar Khan tehsil, is a central leader of the PPP. Rawalpindi is seen as a strong organisational and ideological base for the PPP. Another party with an organisational base in the district’s urban areas is the JI. Nawaz Sharif, too, enjoys support in the urban areas of Rawalpindi district.

Constituencies:

NA50

After four consecutive wins, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi of the PMLN lost this seat to his PPP rival, Ghulam Murtaza Satti, in 2002 in a triangular fight which also featured a candidate of the MMA who polled close to 30,000 votes. In view of the JI’s boycott this time around, February 2008 will witness a two-way contest between Abbasi and Satti again. Though the representatives of other parties and independent candidates are also contesting for this seat, they appear to be lightweights compared to the two. Political analysts are still hedging their bets as they are not sure how the Jamaat voters will behave. Traditionally, these voters consider themselves closer to the PMLN than to the PPP. In fact, this is what Abbasi seems to be counting on — he attributes his 2002 defeat to the MMA’s presence in the constituency and the absence of the Sharifs from the national scene. PMLQ has fielded Javed Satti. This constituency consists of three hilly areas of northern Punjab: Murree tehsil, Kotli Sattian tehsil and Kahuta tehsil.

NA51

Until the 2002 win of Raja Pervez Ashraf, a member of the PPP, this constituency was a stronghold of the PMLN representatives. Ashraf, however, stunned his party’s detractors when he trounced his PMLQ rival, Raja Shaukat Aziz, the runner-up. Khurshid Zaman of the PMLN came third and polled 26,000 votes while Tahirul Qadri of the PAT polled 15,000. Ashraf is still seen as a strong candidate: local observers feel that he will have an upper hand in the event of a three-way fight between the PPP, the PMLQ and the PMLN as the Muslim League votes may get divided to his advantage. His opponents, however, will offer him a tough fight: Chaudhry Riaz of the PMLN, who won from Gujjar Khan in 1993 and 1997, will be vying for his share of the Muslim League vote bank as will PMLQ’s Raja Qasim Javed, the son of Rawalpindi city district nazim. Though parts of Gujjar Khan city and parts of the periphery of Rawalpindi city make up this constituency, it also contains rural farming areas.

NA52

The constituency includes areas of Rawalpindi city and Taxila. Before the 2002 election, NA-52 and NA-53 formed one constituency. However, new delimitations have created two seats out of one. PMLN stalwart Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan won from this constituency in the last election with a comfortable majority, defeating the PMLQ representative Nasir Raja. Khan will again face Nasir Raja who comes from an influential political family of Rawalpindi district. His brother Basharat Raja was a minister in the last Punjab provincial cabinet. Khurram Pervez, the son of Raja Pervez Ashraf, is contesting this seat as a PPP candidate. Local analysts are not impressed with Khurram Pervez’s credentials and are of the view that the main contest will be between the PMLN and PMLQ candidates.

NA53

A federal minister in the Shaukat Aziz-led government, Ghulam Sarwar Khan won the election from this constituency in 2002 as an independent candidate with an easy margin. Ghulam Sarwar Khan was a veteran PPP leader who due to local rivalries was not given a party ticket in 2002 and, hence, had decided to contest the election as an independent candidate. His victory came against Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan who is a PMLN heavyweight. After the elections, however, Ghulam Sarwar Khan joined hands with the ruling PMLQ. This time around Ghulam Sarwar Khan is contesting the polls as a PMLQ candidate and his rival will again be Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan. PPP has awarded its ticket to a local leader, Sardar Sohaib Mumtaz who is unlikely to pose a challenge to the main contenders.


NA54

Till the emergence of the PMLQ, the PMLN enjoyed upper hand in this constituency. However, due to the division of the Muslim League vote in 2002, the PPP’s Zamarrud Khan earned a narrow victory over the PMLN chairman Raja Zafarul Haq. Shaukat Aziz Siddique of the JI, who fought the election under the MMA banner, also polled more than 12,000 votes in 2002 indicating that there is some religio-political vote bank in the area. In fact, this is why analysts feel that the outcome on February 18 will, to some extent, depend on how the JI voters behave. A middle-class professional, Zamarrud Khan of the PPP will face Basharat Raja of the PMLQ and newcomer Malik Abrar of the PMLN in the 2008 general elections.

Along with two other constituencies of Rawalpindi city, the elections in NA-54 will be impacted by the assassination of the PPP chairperson, Benazir Bhutto. According to analysts, the events of December 27 have strengthened the position of Zamarrud Khan who was otherwise seen as a weak candidate despite his leading role in the lawyers’ movement for the restoration of the deposed chief justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.

Two other factors could influence the outcome of the race in this constituency: military preferences and clan-based politics. A large number of retired and serving army officers reside in the area, while voters are also likely to vote according to their strong clan-based biases.

NA55

Before the 2002 election, the entire Rawalpindi city was incorporated into a single National Assembly seat. However, after the authorities redrew the constituencies, the city was divided into NA-55 and NA-56. Former railways minister, Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, secured both the seats as an independent candidate in 2002 but this time around this constituency may throw up a few surprises due to the recent assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Prior to December 27, a close contest was expected between Ahmed and the PMLN’s Javed Hashmi. With the help of the strong PPP organisational base in the city, however, Amir Fida Paracha, the PPP candidate, has made Bhutto’s death the main plank of his election campaign which is targeted against the former ruling party, the PMLQ, and its candidate. Paracha’s cause is helped by the fact that Agha Riazul Islam, the PPP’s candidate in 2002, secured close to 30,000 votes against Ahmed’s 40,000, with the PMLN’s Sardar Tariq garnering only 14,000 votes.

This constituency consists of the densely populated areas of Rawalpindi city which include areas where mostly middle class and lower middle class people reside. Most of the city’s famous markets are situated in this constituency.

NA56

Sheikh Rashid Ahmed vacated this seat after the 2002 election but in the by-election his nephew Rashid Shafiq lost to the MMA candidate Hanif Abbasi who was backed by the PMLN. This time around Abbasi is contesting the election against Sheikh Rashid on a PMLN ticket. PPP has again nominated Sardar Shaukat Hayat Khan who secured 20,000 votes in 2002 against Sheikh Rashid’s 30,000. PPP is likely to secure sympathy votes though analysts are of the view that the elderly Sardar Shaukat Hayat is unlikely to pose a serious threat to the main contenders. However, the possible vote swing can add to the troubles of former ruling party candidate.

In the wake of the poll boycott by Qazi Hussain Ahmed, his JI could also influence the outcome of the race. In 2002 the JI candidate had secured more than 12,000 votes, 1500 votes ahead of the PMLN’s Syed Zafar Ali Shah. It is difficult to guess how these voters will behave in February.