SO the velvet glove is off, and the authoritarian fist of military rule is out in the open. However, the display of strength by the government on March 23 was as hamhanded as it was unnecessary.

By using brute force to abort the planned rally of the ramshackle Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD), the regime showed simultaneously that the alliance was a genuine threat, and revealed its own sense of insecurity. While there may be considerable reason for the latter perception, the fear of the ARD is surely misplaced. Pakistan's political history is littered with alliances made and broken (and the only thing most of them have had in common is the leadership of the indefatigable Nawabzada Nasrullah), but few of them have been as diverse and ineffective as the current power-hungry grouping.

The opposition rally was supposed to be held at Lahore's historic Mochi Gate on Pakistan Day, but the area was completely sealed off by thousands of cops. Earlier, a series of pre-emptive arrests had scooped up scores of political leaders. The impression given was that the event had to be thwarted at any cost. So virtually the entire Punjab administration concentrated its considerable resources on preventing what would have been at best a fairly minor political gathering.

Poor old Nawabzada Nasrullah was surrounded by a phalanx of Punjab's finest, and when Asma Jehangir and a few of her colleagues from the Human Rights Commission tried to call on him, they were physically stopped and manhandled. When they finally managed to break the siege, they found the 80-year old Nawabzada to be in good spirits, but scarcely a threat to the foundations of the state.

A few days later, Shakil Sheikh, the chief reporter of The News in Islamabad, was kidnapped, driven to a remote place, and mercilessly beaten up. His assailants repeatedly told him that "he wrote too much" while kicking him with their boots and hitting him with rifle butts. Although their identity has not been established, the operation has the fingerprints of some spook outfit all over it.

Over five decades of independence have done nothing to alter the mindset of our police and security agencies. Under British rule, their primary function was to protect the interests of the Crown; after 1947 this priority shifted to protecting the Pakistani state. The protection of the citizen was a remote concept that was only invoked when the status of an individual was high enough to command the attention of the administration. The rest of us have always been on our own and hence the proliferation of private security agencies. Indeed, most Pakistanis see the police as a threat to life, limb and property rather than as a shield against the lawless.

However, instead of reforming the police to bring it in line with today's requirements, successive governments - both elected and unelected - have used it unabashedly as an instrument of oppression against their opponents. While there has been desultory talk of reforms, all the laws, rules and regulations governing the police are from the colonial era.

Underpaid, ill-trained, semi-literate and overworked cops are supposed to take on armed criminals and terrorists when all they are really capable of is to beat confessions out of helpless suspects, break up opposition rallies and stand by the roadside for hours when some VIP is expected to drive past.

While it is understandable (although deplorable) for ambitious, insecure politicians to resort to strong-arm methods to bully and hound their rivals, for an unassailable military government to do so is incomprehensible. Given the current climate of political apathy, there is absolutely no prospect of any kind of popular movement developing momentum against the government. Indeed, by resorting to mindless violence in a predictable knee-jerk reaction against the ARD, our military rulers have demonstrated that their use and abuse of the levers of power is no different from the politicians they love to revile.

By contrast to the treatment received by the ARD, the tame elements of the Muslim League - known by the ridiculous sobriquet of the "like-minded group" - saw the benign face of the military government when it staged its public meeting in Islamabad two days later. United by its determination to pick up whatever crumbs the government dropped from its high table, the breakaway faction of the PML (estimated to be the fifteenth faction to split away from the long-dead mother party) consists of the usual power-hungry professional politicians ready and willing to cut any deal with anybody for a slice of the cake.

The government's open favouritism seems to confirm that it is seriously considering the formation of a king's party, the resurrection of assemblies, the election of a pliable prime minister and the elevation of General Pervez Musharraf to the Presidency. While there seems to be very little the opposition can do to prevent this scenario from becoming a reality, the real problems will arise when the next general election falls due next year.

In Pakistan, three years in power are enough to tarnish the cleanest and most efficient government in the public view. The scale and magnitude of the problems we face are such that no amount of rhetoric and wishing will even begin to address them.

Unemployment, disease, inflation and illiteracy will all be worse next year than they were when General Musharraf seized power in 1999. And whatever facade this government acquires in the meanwhile, anybody associated with it will be punished at the polls. Granted that a sitting government has vast powers to get the electoral verdict of its choice, the amount of rigging it can get away with will be limited. The likely presence of several international monitoring groups during the elections can contribute to minimize the degree of official interference in the process.

The rapidly developing situation is reminiscent of the many efforts made by past military regimes to shape events to their liking.

Unfortunately, real life politics seldom conforms to parade ground commands. Time and again, General Musharraf's predecessors misread the situation and placed their trust in Quislings who just could not deliver. There is no reason to think he will fare any better.

And yet he can pause and reconsider his options: by remaining above the political fray instead of becoming partisan, he can oversee the orderly and quick return to democracy. While our mainstream parties and politicians have been united in distorting and discrediting democracy, the fact remains that there is no alternative available, so we will have to restore it in the hope that politicians will have learned a lesson from this interlude and will do a better job next time. A forlorn hope, perhaps, but it's all we have to think about.