AS the results of the second phase of the local body elections emerge, it becomes even more clear that the government's ambition of marginalizing the PPP and Nawaz Sharif's faction of the Muslim League has not been realized.

The army's game plan was for non-political, independent candidates to win the bulk of the seats for Nazims/Naibs (heads and deputy heads) of the local bodies. This has not happened: so far, independents have got barely 30 per cent, with candidates supported either by the PPP or Nawaz Sharif's splinter group of the PML gaining virtually all the remaining seats. As usual, the religious parties got clobbered. Interestingly, Gujrat, the stronghold of Chaudhry Shujaat and Chaudhry Parvez, the kingpins of the 'like-minded' (i.e., officially sanctioned) rump of the PML, went almost totally to candidates supported by the PPP.

These results should convince GHQ that its dream of creating a King's Party out of PML turncoats has failed to materialize. Or rather, this pathetic grouping has no credibility whatsoever as its lack of popularity has been thoroughly exposed. So if General Musharraf was hoping to ride this new steed into the presidency, he may discover he has acquired a broken down nag that is unfit to pull a tonga in Anarkali.

Indeed, the electoral exercise thus far has ended up playing the useful role of a barometer of popular will. Firstly, the low turnout of around 30 per cent shows that despite massive propaganda over the official electronic media, people have not been turned on by these elections. Very clearly, only political parties can turn out the vote. By arbitrarily banning them from openly nominating candidates, the government has robbed these elections of excitement and drama. The results also show that, like it or not, the Pakistani polity has developed into a two-party system, and no amount of official tinkering is going to change that any time soon.

The fact that the PPP-supported candidates have emerged with 28 per cent of the seats so far, with the PML (Nawaz) gaining 23 per cent would suggest that the government's efforts to malign the leaders of both parties have failed. Apart from widespread apathy, the elections were boycotted by the minorities in protest against the pernicious and divisive separate electorate system, and women wee not allowed to vote by their menfolk in some of the more backward parts of the country. Needless to say, the government did nothing to ensure that they exercised their right to vote.

All in all, government's pious hope to encourage a new class of non-political people to enter the arena would seem to have backfired with the same old families being represented in the new setup that is taking shape. The signal the electorate has sent is loud and clear: in the provincial and national elections due next yea, the race will be between Benazir Bhutto's PPP and Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League.

The King's Party as well as the religious groups will get hammered. Given this probable scenario, there will be a strong temptation to revive the assemblies and browbeat them to rubberstamp legislation to give the president extraordinary powers (including the notorious 58(2)(b) empowering him to sack the PM).

Despite the sharp lessons emerging from the ongoing elections, it is doubtful if the regime has learned anything. Like a locomotive without brakes, it is thundering along a single, well-worn track.

Time and again, the military has intervened through a coup, and tried to solve the nation's many problems through a series of ad hoc measures that were supposed to add up to a magnificent edifice. Unfortunately, as soon as the junta du jour disappeared from the scene, the newly erected system crumbled, its only traces to be found in yellowing newspapers.

So far, our generals (and, to be fair, most of our political class) have failed to appreciate the central fact that political systems - specially democratic ones - need a solid foundation of traditions, tolerance and history behind them to function effectively. They grow and evolve gradually. If they are uprooted time and again, they cannot take root and flourish. But the military seeks to supplant them with a quick-fix patchwork that only lasts as long as the dictator of the day is around.

Many of General Musharraf's supporters (and there is no shortage of them) maintain that he is a good, broad-minded man, and given a choice between him, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif , they would much rather have him. Given the track record of the three, so would I. But a system is not about individuals, it is about institutions and continuity.

Military rule, no matter what its facade, cannot provide a substitute for a just democratic order. If we have a decent soldier like General Musharraf today, what happens if and when he leaves the scene? It is not inconceivable of a Zia-like figure to replace him.

Although democracy has been much maligned in Pakistan, the fact remains that it is the only system that provides for a peaceful transition, and where the ruled can turf out the rulers. Muslim history is replete with civil war accompanying the transfer of power. Indeed, fratricide and patricide were virtually the only means of seizing power. These traditions live on in most Muslim states today, and are an important reason to strengthen, not weaken the democratic process.

Unfortunately, politicians have proved too corrupt and immature to handle power once elected to high office. But their own many shortcomings apart, it is also a fact that time and again, they have been discredited and their governments destabilized by unscrupulous generals and shadowy agencies out of the control of elected leaders. Sections of the media have, consciously or unwittingly, played along, creating the impression in the public mind that politicians and democracy are the causes of all our problems. Under these circumstances, it becomes easy for the military to intervene openly, or interfere covertly.

This game of snakes and ladders has gone on too long. Mud slinging and sloganeering have replaced debate and discourse. Parties fragment, often by official fiat; politicians are victimized while tainted judges and generals get off scot-free; journalists are bought; and policies and programmes are scrapped as soon as one government is toppled and replaced by another. In short, there is constant confusion and chaos that is disastrous for the economy. And as the economy stagnates and the population increases, there is little fresh investment and unemployment soars.

As long as the present tension between the needs of the country and the perceptions of the military persists, this state of perpetual tug-of-war will continue. It is high time our leaders in and out of uniform display a measure of maturity and wisdom and sit down to discuss and formulate the rules of the game to ensure that both politicians and generals know the limits of their respective power and responsibilities. As a nation, we can no longer afford the musical chairs our leaders have been playing. If the results of the second phase of the local bodies elections help concentrate minds at GHQ, they will have played a very useful role.