Shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Frances Fukuyama, an American political scientist, wrote a paper with the provocative title "The end of history." The thrust of his thesis was that with the global triumph of the free economy, liberal-democratic model, there was no longer any countervailing ideology left to serve as an antithesis.

Fukyama argued that without any opposition, the dominant western juggernaut would prevail and effectively end the conflict and friction that generate historical events and shape the flow of history. Understandably, this thesis caused a furore in academia as well as the media, and a decade later, it stands largely discredited.

Whatever the fate of the Fukuyama paper, it is possible to argue that in Pakistan today, we are witnessing "the end of politics." Consider the facts: on the eve of a crucial and possibly historic summit meeting between the leaders of India and Pakistan, the two biggest political parties have decided to boycott the pre-summit consultative process initiated by General Pervez Musharraf. The PPP leadership says it is doing so because Benazir Bhutto has been sentenced in absentia. Nawaz Sharif's faction of the Muslim League (how many factions are there, for God's sake?) says that to attend a meeting with Musharraf would imply acceptance of his accession to the presidency.

The only other significant component of the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) is the Awami National Party (ANP), and its leadership has sensibly endorsed the talks and sent its representative to meet the president in the face of much carping and cribbing from its ARD partners. But the fact is that Pakistan today is a two-party state and the leaders of both parties are sulking for their own reasons. At a time when a domestic consensus would strengthen General Musharraf's hand in Agra, Pakistan's two biggest parties have no input to offer. Benazir Bhutto has gone to the extent of criticising the Indian government for having extended the invitation to begin with. We have not heard from Nawaz Sharif yet as his voice has been effectively stifled by his Saudi hosts, but it is doubtful if he would have contributed anything of note.

This is just one example of the irrelevance of our political parties. Caught up in the short-term compulsions of their corrupt leaders, they have become so much an integral part of the problem that they cannot possibly be part of the solution. Their supporters are so fed up of the antics of these exposed politicians that they will not come out into the streets for them. Unable to mount any pressure on the military government, the PPP and PML leaders are reduced to mumbling hollow threats. Whenever they offer sensible criticism, their arguments lose their force because of their own record while in office.

The third biggest political party, the MQM, has effectively marginalized itself by boycotting the local body elections in its stronghold of urban Sindh. The reasons for this decision - as for most MQM decisions - are murky: from his comfortable exile in London, Altaf Hussain makes Delphic pronouncements that might make sense to him, but to nobody else. But what is more amazing is that his followers accept these bizarre declarations without even a murmur of protest. In any case, the MQM has by now so thoroughly alienated all parties and centres of power that despite its support, it is largely irrelevant except when it shuts down Karachi by implicit threats of violence against anybody who does not pull down his shutters when it calls its periodic "strikes."

The religious parties with their fundamentalist agenda want to drag the country back into medieval times, and their action plan consists of abolishing interest, support of the Taliban, confrontation with India and a rejection of rational thought and modern concepts. In every sense they are irrelevant to Pakistan and its need to modernize and progress. Indeed, by their words and actions they are acting as a major hurdle to investment.

The scary part is that these people are the best we have in politics: the few intelligent and honest politicians in the ring are kept at arm's length by their leaders, lest they become popular in their own right. In any case, politics in Pakistan is such a dirty business that very few upright and capable people are tempted to take the plunge. What we are left with is a class of unproductive drones who fatten themselves when in power, and are the source of endless intrigues when they are out of office. Small wonder that there are hardly any idealists in the ranks of professional politicians. Among their priorities, serving the people is very low down on the list.

The army's attempt to induct another breed of politicians through the local body elections being held under the grand "devolution plan" has failed as familiar families and faces are being elected in droves. How these freshly minted local democrats will fare when hostile provincial and national governments are formed next year remains to be seen. But it can safely be predicted that the cohabitation is likely to be uneasy.

Having talked of the irrelevance of our politicians, can we honestly say that the generals are any more relevant? The past record of military governments is anything but reassuring. Zia's era has saddled us with a large proportion of the foreign loans that are like a deadweight pulling down the economy; he unleashed fundamentalism and a tidal wave of drugs and guns; and he was instrumental in formulating the foreign policy that has so isolated us.

Strictly speaking, the relevance of generals lies in the field of defence and not in politics. However, given our peculiar and convoluted history, the army has become Pakistan's most powerful political party. But the record of our generals in politics is very poor, and it would be a brave man who predicts that the current crop will fare any better.

So what is the answer? We must face the fact that sooner or later (and preferably sooner), Pakistan must return to the democratic path. And I do not mean the 'guided' variety so dear to the generals. There are no short-cuts, no magic wands to suddenly clean up the system. And as we know to our cost, the longer a military government hangs on to power, the more disastrous the results. The most we can hope for from General Musharraf is a brief interregnum in which extremism is curbed; the economy stabilized and relations with India improved.

One knows this is a tall order, but if he can pull it off, he can live in the presidency for as long as he wants.