In any conventional war, both sides have defined objectives and goals, and progress can be measured in terms of soldiers killed, captured and wounded; territory gained or lost; and damage inflicted on the enemy's economy and war machine.
But in the kind of 'asymmetrical conflict' that is now going on between the West and the forces of jihad led by Al Qaeda, there is no territory to be won or lost, no planes and tanks with the smaller, weaker side, and only a handful of foot soldiers to kill or capture. Indeed, the goals of Al Qaeda are blurred and confused; the only thing that is clear is a burning hatred of western civilization and values.
Osama bin Laden and his followers are determined to destroy those leaders and institutions in the Islamic world they perceive as being influenced by the West. Thus, democracy, secularism and liberalism are anathema to them. What they want to replace these with (where they exist in Muslim countries) is less clear. There is a fuzzy notion of 'pristine Islam', but as we have seen from recent history, this model is virtually impossible to replicate in today's context.
The West, on the other hand, is clear in what it wants: complete annihilation of all terrorist groups, starting with Al Qaeda. And as it has all the big guns on its side, one would think that the battle would be over very soon. However, precisely because of the secret, hazy nature of the conflict and the support the terrorists enjoy among their sympathizers, the war is not going as well as Bush and Co would like. Despite the odd holy warrior arrested, Al Qaeda appears to be regrouping and flexing its muscles. And it is attracting new recruits drawn by the charisma of its leader and the perception that Islam is under threat from the West.
Conflicts such as the on-going one are basically between ideas and ideology, not about body bags and bombs. The Vietnamese defeated a vastly superior American force because despite their best efforts, the Americans lost the battle for hearts and minds. The Viet Cong, motivated more by nationalism than communism, fought tenaciously and valiantly to throw out the invaders. The FLN in Algeria ejected the French after a long and bloody liberation struggle. In these and other asymmetrical conflicts, the resolve of the weaker side was strengthened by an ideology that prevailed in the face of superior force.
Immediately after 9/11, Bush stated that the assault on American targets was an attack on "the American way of life and values", and declared that these would never be diminished by terrorism. But events over the last 18 months or so indicate that they have in fact been eroded. What is the 'American way of life' Bush and his countrymen are so rightly proud of? Above all, the United States was a wide open society - tolerant and accepting of other people and ideas. A nation of immigrants, it was a magnet for people across the world fleeing repression and poverty at home. These 'huddled masses' made a new life for themselves, using the opportunities their new home offered them.
In the aftermath of the traumatic events of 9/11, many of these values shrank measurably, specially for Muslims and anybody who looked vaguely Middle Eastern. In the Second World War, Americans of Japanese origin were interned in concentration camps to prevent any of them with lingering loyalties to Japan from carrying out attacks against the US. Most decent Americans (and they are in the vast majority) were deeply ashamed of this act carried out in their name. Now, the registration procedures for most Muslims from the Middle East and Pakistan entering into the States or living there smacks of similar singling out.
Torture as state policy has been condemned by Americans for years. Apart from a number of American NGOs which report on human rights, the State Department issues its own report every year, detailing violations around the world. Now, according to the press, American forces in Afghanistan have inflicted torture themselves or have stood by while their Afghan allies have tortured and killed Taliban suspects. The presence of hundreds of suspected Al Qaeda rank and file members in the concentration camp at Guantanamo Bay in inhuman conditions without being charged or tried is a continuing negation of the rule of law enshrined in the American constitution.
The concept of 'innocent until proven guilty' is at the very heart of the American legal system. This has been turned on its head for anybody remotely suspected of terrorist links. Lives have been destroyed because of mistaken identity or computer glitches. Having a common surname like 'Mohammed' or 'Hussain' has caused ordinary Muslims to be entrapped in a Kafkaesque nightmare. Suddenly, there is one set of laws for Muslims and another for the rest.
Apart from the erosion of human rights, there is the smell of fear in the air. Newspapers are full of dire warnings of chemical, biological and nuclear Armageddon. Al Qaeda is supposed to have all kinds of sophisticated technology at its disposal. There is talk of inoculating the entire population against smallpox; clearly, the pharmaceutical companies manufacturing the antidote are having a field day. Traces of ricin, a toxic chemical recently discovered in a London flat, have caused panic in the UK. The anthrax scare in the US that followed on the heels of 9/11 shows the level of fear many westerners are living in, despite their vast arsenals.
In France and the UK, new tough legislation designed to curb terrorism has in fact given the security forces vast powers, and civil liberty experts fear these can be misused against any citizen. In Pakistan, the backlash against American actions has led to a rise in popularity of Islamic parties and a further rightward lurch that will serve to isolate Pakistan even further. The Saudi regime has been subjected to unprecedented criticism in the western media, and US-Saudi relations are at their lowest ebb. The Indonesian tourist industry has been shattered by the attacks in Bali.
All these represent losses for the West and its supporters in the current 'war against terrorism'. What are the gains? Osama bin Laden and most of his top aides are still at large. A handful of Al Qaeda members have been arrested or killed, but the network remains intact and seems to be recovering from its initial setbacks.
Despite an expensive media campaign run by the American government in the Islamic world, a majority of Muslims remains convinced that their faith is being subjected to unfair criticism and pressure; some even believe that a modern crusade has been launched against Islam. Until this perception is changed, Osama bin Laden and his cohorts will find no difficulty in attracting fresh recruits.





























