As the political situation in Pakistan descends from drama to farce, I can imagine the sneering and the grim rage among army officers in military messes across the country.

"Bloody civvies!" is the probable refrain. "We give them the elections they want, and what do they do? Bicker and quarrel over trivial issues while the country goes to the dogs! Parliament is deadlocked and the mullahs are running amok! The damn politicians are trying to uproot the local government system we gave them! Above all, they are challenging the authority of our chief! The only way out is to line them up and shoot them, and run the country ourselves!"

Every generation of army officers forgets how their senior colleagues wrecked the system in the previous bout of military rule, so this is a good time to remind them that the situation that so displeases them today is the direct outcome of the political tinkering attempted by their chief and his team. It did not need a seer to predict that as soon as provincial governments were in place, there would be an immediate clash between them and the local governments that owed their existence and allegiance to the federal government generally and General Musharraf personally. That this is precisely what has happened in the NWFP and threatens to be repeated in other provinces should come as no surprise to anybody.

Another obvious outcome of the amateurish electoral manipulation that we saw last October is the vast political gain made by the religious parties. Having decided to keep the mainstream parties of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif out of power by hook or by crook, Gen Musharraf and his team of political geniuses allowed the fundamentalist MMA a walkover in the NWFP, Balochistan and in many constituencies elsewhere. This is quite apart from the alleged selective rigging that went on.

The non-entities who comprise the King's Party (or PML-Q) are no match for the crafty and committed stalwarts of the MMA who are bent on extracting their pound of flesh in the shape of the wide-ranging Islamic measures nationwide that they have already rammed through in the NWFP. Basically, they have made it abundantly clear that if Musharraf wants their support, he will have to acquiesce in transforming Pakistan into Talibanistan. In truth, we were well on our way there, but the mullahs want us to take a short-cut to the black hole of extremism.There is no doubt that most of the members of the King's Party would be happy to accept this poisoned chalice in order to ensure their continued well-being in a currently meaningless parliament. However, President Musharraf understands the realities of global politics far better than the Chaudhries of Gujrat and the mullahs of Mardan. He knows that if his government were to accept the MMA's demands, Pakistan would become a pariah overnight. For instance, a key demand is that all of the recommendations and rulings of the Council of Islamic Ideology should be accepted and made part of the legal system. This would imply the elimination of the interest-based banking system (although in a typical fudge, Zia converted 'interest' into 'bank charges'), and Pakistan would be cut off from the global economy.

Since the MMA so admires the Taliban, Pakistani women would presumably have to be locked up at home, and any sign of uncovered skin would be immediately punished by flogging. The minorities would have even less rights than they have now, and schools would be converted into madrassahs. Music and films have already been banned in the NWFP, as has cable TV. Presumably this will be the role model for the rest of the country.

This is a nightmare scenario for most Pakistanis and foreigners alike: a country like Afghanistan became a breeding ground for terrorism under the Taliban. How much worse would a Talibanized Pakistan be with its huge army and its nuclear arsenal? General Musharraf is well aware of the dangers of such an outcome, and is unlikely to preside over the MMA's takeover bid, not because of any liberal impulse, but out of the knowledge that this would be disastrous for him and for Pakistan.

But his options are limited: he could turn to Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif for support, or he could simply dissolve parliament and declare martial law. The temptation to take the latter course must be strong, but by now he knows that without the trappings of democracy, even his American friends cannot long support him.

As for cutting a deal with Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, this would be a bitter pill to swallow for General Musharraf, but the country would have to pay a lesser price. Basically, we are where we are today because of the general's deep-seated phobia against Pakistan's two most popular politicians. For him, the stories of their corruption have acquired mythical proportions. Indeed, his coup and his continuation in power have been justified only by his avowed intent to - wait for it! - 'clean up the mess he inherited'. This is the time-honoured justification for power-hungry generals in Pakistan, but does not prevent them from making an even bigger mess by the time they are driven out of office.

So how can General Musharraf stay in power as president without having to take off his uniform while keeping the MMA at bay? Currently the Supreme Court is hearing an appeal urging it to declare MMA incumbents in parliament as unqualified since their certificates from the madrassahs they attended are clearly not equivalent to the university degrees required by the Election Commission.

Should the honourable judges agree with the petitioner, the general's current headache would disappear immediately: by-elections could be held and the country returned to some approximation of sanity. But a precondition would have to be the transparency and fairness of these polls: the last thing we need is an action replay of the gerrymandering and arm-twisting that went on before the October elections.

If General Musharraf wants to stay on - and he clearly does - he will have to overcome his personal animosity against mainstream, popular politicians and remove his political eggs from the PML-Q basket. The Chaudhries have failed to deliver more than once for the general, and even he must have seen that they have a very narrow political base. And while being let out of the NAB dragnet may have been profitable for them, it has not given the army the quid pro quo it expected and needed.

On the eve of his visit to the United States, the last thing President Musharraf would want is to leave a country seething with uncertainty. He needs to take a strategic decision on his future and stop attempting to take short-cuts that end up in disaster.