The American dilemma

Published August 23, 2003

Soon after a huge bomb tore through the United Nations building in Baghdad, killing the UN special representative, the seasoned Brazilian diplomat Sergio Vieria de Mello along with at least a score of others, the survivors stumbling out of the shattered office were quoted as asking: "Why us? We came to help."

This poignant query was echoed by the western media as journalists tried to quickly (and briefly) analyze why the UN mission had been targeted. The first reason, of course, is that the international organization is a softer target than the heavily guarded American offices and bases. But the deeper reason is that like it or not, the UN was seen by many Iraqis as the source of so much of the hardship they had to put up with during the long years of UN-approved sanctions. Tens of thousands of parents saw their children die before their eyes for lack of medicine and proper nutrition.

Quite correctly, many western politicians and journalists made the point that the Iraqis should be blaming Saddam Hussein for their misery, as it was his refusal to abide by UN resolutions that was leading to an extension of the sanctions. Also, he personally seemed to suffer from no shortage of funds when it came to building his obscene palaces and buying luxury cars for his brutal sons. All this is very true.

However, the fact of the matter is that the Americans would not have permitted any relaxation in the sanctions as long as Saddam Hussein was ruling Iraq. I have long maintained that if the Iraqi dictator had had any true feelings for his people, he would have stepped down long ago. Had he done so, he would have spared the Iraqis much suffering and sorrow, but then as we know to our cost, dictators hang on to power as long as they possibly can.

As American and British forces struggle to restore some semblance of order, they are finding that the war was a piece of cake compared to the occupation. After well over three months from the day Bush declared the war over and won, fighting continues and soldiers continue to die. The recent bombing of an oil pipeline and the UN building are grim reminders that it's going to get worse before it gets any better.

Many of us who opposed the war freely acknowledged the evil nature of Saddam Hussein's regime and thought the one good thing to emerge from the invasion would be the elimination of the Ba'ath regime. While sceptical about American claims to bring democracy to Iraq and then to the neighbouring countries, we felt that even a limited amount of freedom for the unfortunate people of Iraq would mitigate some of the horrors of the war.

However, as the situation has unfolded, we can see the Americans have not even been able to provide the basic services that the Iraqis were long accustomed to: unlike Afghanistan, Iraq was no basket case, and people had been used to basic services like clean running water, electricity and telephones.

The road network was serviceable; schools functioned and the hospitals were running smoothly despite the shortage of drugs. The war and its aftermath has brought Iraq to its knees, and the occupation forces simply can't cope. Electricity wire is being stolen, and apart from disrupting power distribution, this also prevents sewerage and water pumping stations from functioning.

Estimates for the reconstruction of Iraq now run as high as $600 billion. The cost of maintaining American troops in the country is around a billion dollars a week. Earlier, it had been assumed that the Iraqi oil revenues would pay for the war and the subsequent rebuilding work (to be carried out by American contractors), but with the repeated attacks on oil pipelines and the dilapidated state of Iraqi refineries, it is not clear where the huge sums needed to bring the infrastructure back on line are going to come from.

The Americans have been asking the international community to help both with funds and troops, but have been reluctant to ask for a UN resolution. Countries like Germany and France have been slow to get involved without a request from the Security Council. But secretly, their attitude is that the Americans created this mess, so let them sort it out.

The Indians have clearly said they will send no troops without a UN mandate, and hopefully Pakistan will stick to this publicly announced position as well. A large number of countries, wanting no doubt to stay on the right side of the world's sole superpower, have committed a pitifully small number of troops whose purpose is more to increase the size of the American fig- leaf than to enhance the occupation force's combat capability.

An unforeseen consequence of the occupation is that, not unlike the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, it is attracting jihadi elements from many countries, and this trend is likely to accelerate. In Islam, it is incumbent for true believers to resist the invasion of a Muslim state by infidels. Just as this belief was invoked by the Americans in recruiting mujahideen forces to fight in Afghanistan, it is today being reiterated in mosques around the world as a call to arms.

In a devastated Iraq, the Americans are already over- stretched on internal security duties, so it is doubtful whether they will be able to spare troops to patrol a long and porous border. Today, any fanatic wanting a short-cut to heaven is planning to travel to Iraq.

Suddenly, talk of the 'axis of evil' has been toned down. No longer are Syria, Iran and North Korea being threatened every day. The world's 'hyper-power' is seen to have feet of clay as it struggles to extricate itself from the mess in Iraq. In a sense, Bush is in a no-win situation: if he orders his forces to cut and run, Iraq will truly become the centre of extremism it was supposed to be; if the Americans stay, they will discover that apart from the financial cost, a messy, open-ended conflict is not something the American people signed up for.

Presiding over a sickly economy, the last thing Bush wants is the daily images of mayhem in Iraq and body bags being flown into Washington as a backdrop to the election campaign.

At the end of the day, you can rush into war but you can't rush out when you want to.

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