IN my distant and dissolute youth, I wasted a lot of time and money on games of chance of various kinds. So I can claim some first-hand insights into the gambling instinct.

Firstly, an addicted gambler will hate to get up from the table if he is losing. Indeed, in his desperation to recover his losses, he will increase the stakes until he is wiped out. Casinos profit hugely from this psychology, and will keep the game going as long as the punter can pay. Wealthy high-rollers are given credit, but after a point, this is cut off, and if necessary, the big loser is physically ejected.

I’m afraid Musharraf now finds himself in this position. Having lost at the high-stake game he insisted on playing with the judiciary and the legal fraternity, he is now doubling the bet by preparing another reference against Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. According to the indiscreet and loud law minister, the government is all set for another round, should the Supreme Court throw out the first reference.

What this means is that the government can file one reference after another, thus effectively sidelining the Chief Justice indefinitely. Clearly, the framers of the Constitution did not foresee such mala fide intentions when they made a provision for guarding against inappropriate behaviour among the judiciary.

Indeed, the law minister’s warning was probably intended for the judges now hearing the reference: if they do not uphold the official case, they may spend the rest of their tenures examining similar references.

But probably, all Musharraf would like is the suspension of the Chief Justice until he can get re-elected by the present assembly, without his bid getting stalled by a judge who may not be entirely sympathetic to his ambitions. Once his fresh term is a fait accompli, he can live with a reinstated Iftikhar Chaudhry, even if relations are somewhat strained. But there are lots of unhappy marriages around.

This, then, appears to be the logic behind this latest roll of the dice. Unfortunately, Lady Luck is notoriously fickle. In the current over-heated (literally and figuratively) environment in Pakistan, there is little likelihood that such a crass bid will succeed. Although government spokesmen have been insisting that their boss’s complaint against the Chief Justice is well-founded, the public perception is that the reference is self-serving, and with little substance.

General Musharraf is on record as saying repeatedly that he is more popular than any politician. If he is convinced of the high regard he feels the public holds him in, why is he so afraid to test this before the next assembly?

This entire debilitating exercise is being conducted to ensure that an independent judge is not heading the Supreme Court when Musharraf runs for another term.

Surely, despite the shady legal advice the government has received, it should be clear to the meanest intelligence that the authors of the Constitution never intended for the same assemblies to vote twice for the same president. Ethics and morality might be too much to expect from those at the helm, but surely the dictates of common sense and pragmatism should be heeded.

And even if he is somehow elected and manages to block both popular will and judicial scrutiny, does he think he will be taken seriously domestically or internationally? After all the controversy he has generated; after all the deaths in Karachi; and after all the criticism, does he think he will be able to exert any moral authority? After such a tainted election, he will be reduced to being the president of Islamabad. And even in the capital, he will have to share power with the two clerics who have been running the Lal Masjid, and defying the state for the last four months.

In Musharraf’s early days when we believed his promise to restore democracy (more fools us), some of us naïve hacks actually suggested various exit strategies to the general. This pitiful attempt to gently nudge him back to the barracks was contemptuously ignored. But for whatever it’s worth, here’s a fresh plan.

Why does he not announce that the reference against the Chief Justice was a mistake, and he’s withdrawing it. Simultaneously, he can announce that after supervising the elections with a neutral caretaker government, he will retire from both the offices he currently holds. The next assemblies can then elect his successor, and he, in consultation with the elected prime minister, will appoint the new chief of army staff.

Thus, in one stroke, the present political and judicial crisis will be resolved. At the same time, Musharraf will become a hero overnight, respected at home and abroad as a statesman who put aside his personal ambitions for the national good.

Apart from the increasingly isolated elements who form the ruling coalition, this announcement would be widely welcomed across the country. Even in GHQ, there would be subdued cheers: the top brass is clearly uncomfortable with the bad publicity the army is receiving due to their chief’s deep involvement in politics, and the bad moves he has made recently.

The losers in this scenario would be the PML-Q and the MQM. Alas, the heart does not bleed for their plight. Political orphans, they would return to the wilderness as they have discredited themselves thoroughly by their conduct in power. Although public memory is short in Pakistan, the events of May 12 are too recent for them to be included in any probable power-sharing arrangement.

Even a hopeless optimist like me does not seriously expect Musharraf to heed this advice, and accept that some battles just cannot be won. After all, he

did walk away from the Kargil disaster, even though hundreds of soldiers were not as fortunate.

Every gambler has a run of bad luck, and experienced ones know when to fold their cards and wait for Lady Luck to smile again. Unfortunately, when you are gambling with other people’s future and not your own money, it is tempting to roll yet another pair of dice in the hope of recouping your losses.

But there is some hope that Musharraf’s friends and advisors will persuade him not to gamble with the country’s destiny. However, I am reminded of that cynical old adage: “Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.”