SUDDENLY, there is a feeling of panic in the air: gone is the self-confident, macho swagger from this government's stride. As the rag-tag opposition girds its loins to do battle with the Muslim League Goliath, the latter is exposed as a school bully.

In response to the strike call for today (September 4th), the government has reacted with all the finesse and subtlety of a man flailing around blindly with a stick in the dark to guard against a threat he cannot see. Hundreds of opposition activists have been arbitrarily jailed and peaceful rallies have been brutally disrupted. Hysterical statements from official spokesmen add to the feeling of panic. In Sindh, the work of the provincial government has virtually come to a halt as establishment stalwarts plot and scheme to dilute the political impact of the strike.

The recent imposition of general sales tax (GST) on a wide range of consumer goods has come as a godsend to the opposition as it has gifted them the support of traders and a public groaning under spiralling prices. Had this government announced this additional levy with the budget in June - as it had promised the IMF it would way back in January - the impact would have been absorbed by now. But lacking the spine to live up to its commitment and risk popular ire, it dragged its feet until virtually forced to the wall by the visiting IMF team. The timing couldn't have been worse.

When Nawaz Sharif was elected barely 30 months ago, common wisdom had it that the only threats to him could come from the presidency, the Supreme court or the GHQ. One by one, he neutralized the sources of these potential threats brutally but efficiently. We all thought that he would be the one prime minister to complete his term, and, given his firm grip on the levers of power, probably win re-election. The opposition, reduced to tatters by the sheer scale of the Muslim League landslide, was discounted as largely irrelevant, especially after the revelations of corruption decimated Benazir Bhutto's appeal.

But the government juggernaut has been derailed from time to time: first its alliance with the ANP collapsed in the North West Frontier Province on the question of re-naming the province, and then it drove its MQM partner into the wilderness. While these moves did not display much political acumen, they did demonstrate a certain heady arrogance derived from the PML's crushing parliamentary majority. However, Mian Azhar's exit from its camp has forced a reality check: as a result of these defections or expulsions, the number of those occupying government benches in Parliament has steadily declined. From a two-thirds majority, the government's support has dwindled significantly. If Mian Azhar's group of 20-25 MNAs stand up to be counted, they may well trigger a full-fledged revolt within the party.

As usual in Pakistani politics, most of these wounds are self-inflicted. Had not his unprecedented power gone to his head, Nawaz Sharif would have thought twice before opening so many fronts. For instance, the price for keeping Mian Azhar happy was the governorship of Punjab, something he had apparently been promised by Abbaji, the patriarch of the Sharif family and godfather of this government. Surely Nawaz Sharif, used as he is to paying far higher prices to secure people's loyalty, could have honoured his father's promise.

Similarly, he could have kept his other allies happy by relatively simple and inexpensive expedients. But assured by his handlers that he could do without the ANP and the MQM, Nawaz Sharif rode roughshod over his erstwhile coalition partners who have now joined hands with other opposition parties on the single-point agenda of toppling this government.

Easier said than done. Nawaz Sharif still holds most of the trumps in the pack, even though he may not make good use of them. A street movement against the government would be difficult, if not impossible, to sustain given the disparate nature of the opposition as well as the brutal lengths this government is willing to go in order to ensure its supremacy. Ordinary people are too sick and tired of politics and politicians to come out into the streets to replace one lot of oppressors by another. The President is clearly partisan and cannot be expected to act, even if he had the power to do so.

The one threat to Nawaz Sharif lies within his own party: disgruntled members, sidelined by their leader's highly personalized style, might seize upon popular unrest to rally to Mian Azhar's banner. This may seem far-fetched at present, but the PML shelters many ambitious politicians, and many of them have been deeply frustrated and angered through perceived slights and the few opportunities they have of shoving their snouts in the public trough. The spoils of office have been largely limited to those in the inner circle, and the Leaguers on the periphery are getting hungry.

The fact that such scenarios are suddenly being discussed is a testimonial to the shortsightedness and mediocrity of our politicians. Here is a man who has managed to acquire the greatest concentration of power in Pakistan's history, and yet manages to fritter it away before his term is half done. Indeed, both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif have been turfed out of office in the past for corruption and incompetence. In his time, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto fell because he was far too arrogant to believe for a minute that he could be outmanoeuvred by his rivals.

So what now? Will Nawaz Sharif cling on as a lame-duck PM until 2002, or will he succumb to the pressure the opposition is trying to build up? Whatever happens, it is clear that he will not be able to exercise the authority he did during the first half of his term. He has shot himself too often in the foot to stand up straight, leave alone stride ahead with any degree of confidence.

But if the opposition does manage to somehow topple Nawaz Sharif, what then? Do we go through the same cycle of interim government followed by either the PPP or the PML emerging victorious? Or can the PML engineer an in-house change so that it can set a precedent and complete its tenure? Whatever happens, the rest of the year promises to be very interesting.