June 07, 2007

Earthquakes are considered to be the most benign of all the natural disasters since they do ot kill people except by landslides. It is the buildings that kill people more

“As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods; they kill us for their sport”
— King Lear

Balakot city was completely destroyed by the October 8 earthquake. It is located on top of two fault lines and has been declared a “red zone” by the government with respect to future construction. The new Balakot city project, which was inaugurated by the President recently, located in Bakryal, is situated between Mansehra and old Balakot. It can accommodate 50,000 people and the planned city will be eco-friendly as no trees will be cut to make space for the houses and facilities and which will be earthquake safe.

The people of Balakot are not very receptive to the idea of shifting to the new place. They have agreed to receive allocations in the new city but don’t want to let go of their respective lands in the old city. It is natural for them to want to stay in their own area.

The people feel that the new place might be barren compared to the city they have inhabited for so long and where their forefathers are buried. The new area might also not be very attractive for tourists –– the main source of income for the people –– as no river flows nearby although it is green and picturesque. However, the authorities are optimistic that eventually all the residents of Balakot will agree as that is the best option for them.

With the rehabilitation process well underway, it would be worthwhile to talk about our state of preparedness to manage any future disaster situations. The International Conference on Earthquake Risk Management (ICERM) was hosted by Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (Erra) in April in Islamabad, where experts in risk management, readiness, mechanism of decision-making for disaster prevention and post disaster strategy, from Japan, Turkey and Iran –– all earthquake prone countries –– shared their respective experiences.

Many parts in Japan have experienced devastating earthquakes and tidal waves in the past. The Great Kanto Earthquake was the worst in Japanese history; it hit the Tokyo region in 1923 in which about 142,000 people died. In 1995, the Great Hanshin Earthquake struck the city of Kobe, killing 6434 people and destroying the city completely. The Chuetsu area was rocked with a quake measuring 6.9 on the Richter scale on October 23, 2004, killing 39 and injuring about 3000 people.

On October 28, 2005, we witnessed an earthquake which killed 73,000 people and rendered 3.5 million homeless.

The relative experience of the two countries presents an extraordinary comparison in terms of the number of lives lost. The Japanese loss of more than 6,000 in 1995, seems small compared to the large number of lives lost in 1923. We lost 60,000 people in Balochistan in 1935 and then more than 70,000 again in 2005. We have learned nothing from our own tragedy and certainly nothing from the Kobe and Chuetsu earthquakes in Japan and how they evolved their risk and disaster management.

With the economic cost exceeding over Rs300 billion, there has been no serious effort to assess and understand the human and social impact. The rehabilitation process is weighed down with issues ranging from money, manner of payment of compensation, the role of NGOs in a conservative community, to the fate of landless affectees.

Is help being extended to the people who need it most in a society where there are many problems. Not as it should be, however, many are experiencing a change. For instance, the women of the area have been given opportunities to work with the NGOs for the betterment of their communities and families.

Earthquakes are considered as the most benign of all the natural disasters since they do not kill people except by landslides. It is the buildings that kill people more. Margalla Tower was the only building in the capital that wreaked havoc on its unsuspecting inhabitants while the rest of Islamabad stood firm. This naturally points towards substandard construction and faulty architecture.

Most dangerous quakes are between six and eight on the Richter scale and buildings can be made to resist the jolts of that strength. Islamabad, interestingly, was upgraded to the “moderate-high” category from “moderate” a few years back, but no one noticed that since we have short memories and the last big one happened in 1935.

Given the horrendous overall cost that an earthquake may entail, a risk management strategy needs to be developed; the contours of which could be:

• There should be an informed debate that addresses the basic need for having a strategy in the first place in terms of cost/benefit analysis.

• The Crisis Management Cell (CMC) needs to be staffed with real professionals. It can guide and own the nationwide debate and be the forerunner in initiating, advocating and coordinating the changes that may be needed at the policy and implementation level.

• A legal framework is needed to ensure that the new building codes are implemented. It is a sad fact that the building codes Islamabad has had since 1986 have not been enforced yet.

• An institutional framework may be put in to improve our study of the phenomenon through national and international cooperation, sharing of geological knowledge and impact information.

• There is a need to boost capacity and professionalism of our police, fire and rescue services and civil defence organisations. Fire safety regulations need to be made an integral part of our building codes.

• Our town and urban planning must take into account latest research in seismology while architects and civil engineers must be trained to design and construct buildings according to a dynamic building code.

The Japanese are using rubber or other resilient materials in the foundations of multi-storey buildings to reduce the shaking effect through base isolation which is said to be the best available technique in this regard.

• Evacuation sites must be planned that can cater to the needs of the evacuees. In Japan, parks have been designed as shelters with earthquake resistant underground water tanks, storehouses for food, etc.

• Electricity, gas and telecommunication services need to have their own disaster preparedness plans that incorporate post-disaster capabilities in restoration of services. This will help in maintaining social order and prevent confusion.

• The local governments can play a vital role in educating the native communities in earthquake prone areas. In Japan it is very common to see public signs that guide the people about the places to go to in case of an earthquake.

• Enforcement is where our people have been let down with all the laws, policies and recommendations in the book. What can ensure applicability of new building codes in this rent-seeking culture? A workable system of accountability which is swift in taking cognizance of corruption, wilful wrongs, complicity and criminal negligence should be established.

Apart from a few workshops and conferences or establishment of new parking spaces for people, we have done little in terms of a long-term strategy. Social well-being justifies the existence of authorities, institutions and statutes. There is, for example, little evidence that will show that the new building codes are in fact under enforcement in Islamabad. High-rise towers and apartment projects conceived and constructed by unscrupulous developers are springing up at the public has not been alerted about building controls.

It is said that you can no more win a war than you can win an earthquake. Comparing Pakistan with Japan with respect to the subject would not go far. Japan has been the single largest donor to Pakistan in the social sector. They invested about 300 million USD, after 1995, only in developing parks as evacuation areas; their essential urban infrastructure is geared to respond to an earthquake to mitigate impact with on-going research. All that does sound fancy for Pakistan that uses aid to fund its development projects; but how much, for example, of Japanese expertise in construction of high-rise buildings has gone into our new building codes?

In December 2004, Pakistan hosted the International Conference on Volunteerism and the Millennium Development Goals.

Civilised societies that are organised around rules and institutions are geared into action when nature strikes; our tragedy brought the nation together, if only for a short while. In 1935 we were a colony, struggling to find our voice; in the last 60 years we have made choices that have given us the present. We have a responsibility to our people and more so to our children in securing their future.

Allocating resources to a cause that seems chimerical or even politically incorrect compared to other pressing issues. Let’s not be shaken out of slumber in 2095 only to mourn the decimation of our children.