KARACHI, Dec 24: Slow arrival of phutti from fields to ginneries in Punjab is going to have an adverse impact on overall harvesting, and size of cotton crop may not exceed 11 million bales against the downward revised government estimates of 12.8 million bales from earlier fixed target of 14.8 million bales.

Severe damage inflicted by mealy-bug and curl-leaf virus (CVL) in the cotton growing belts of lower Punjab and upper Sindh during the early stages of maturity of crop, with no assistance from government departments and complete silence of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Minfal), is the major cause of large-scale crop loss.

As a result of this, the country will have to foot a huge bill for import of raw cotton to meet the domestic industry’s demand which presently stands at around 15 million bales.

Having over 10 million spindles, the spinning industry imports around 1.5 million bales of long staple to produce fine count yarn, but now it will also have to import huge quantity of short staple to keep its wheel moving and meet local and foreign demand.

Heavy shortfall in the arrival of phutti in Punjab during the last fortnight (Dec 1 to 15) badly affected overall production which stood short by 18.36 per cent at 8.349 million over the corresponding period last year when 10.228 million bales were harvested. Though arrival of phutti in Sindh was slightly higher by 2.22 per cent at 2.182 million bales against 2.016 million bales of the same period last year, it could not offset the adverse impact.

According to production figures during the period under review, Punjab produced around 6.187 million bales up to Dec 15, which were short by 24.65 per cent over the corresponding production of 8.211 million bales last year.

Consequently, it took total production at 8.349 million bales as against 10.228 million bales harvested in the same period last year which resulted in a shortfall of 18.36 per cent.

Despite the fact that spinners have slowed down their buying and lifted around 6.634 million bales so far compared to 7.942 million bales in the corresponding period last year, raw cotton prices in the domestic market continue to be on the higher side. Exporters purchased around 79,500 bales as against 74,350 bales last year.

The flow of phutti during fortnight (Dec 1 to 15) remained slow because lesser quantity (1.073 million bales) reached ginneries as against 1.249 million bales recorded in the same period last year. The unsold stocks lying with ginners were also of lesser volume at 1.635 million bales compared to 2.211 million bales in the same period last year.

Industry sources said if the crop size turns up to be around 11 million bales, this would mean that a huge quantity of around four million bales would have to be imported by the country. They demanded that the government should allow import of all categories of cotton through Wagha border which will be cost-effective as huge amount could be saved towards freight.