The dam's raising had been completed and the country had sufficient water to fill the lake, and lessen its Rabi woes, but it has not been the case, and shortages conceded so far go beyond one-third of the Rabi needs.

The Technical Committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa), in its September 25 meeting, had calculated 31 per cent shortage. These calculations were based on river flow data till September 20. There is, however, still a probability of shortages going up to 35 per cent by the time the Advisory Committee of Irsa meets on October 5 to finalise the deficit figure.

The Advisory Committee would estimate shortages by factoring in 10-day additional river data (up to September 30). The continuously receding river flows during the ten days have generated more fears among water planners. Last year, the country suffered 34 per cent Rabi shortages, and it looks to be a repeat this year, so far.

Apart from usual and perennial causes of Rabi shortages, like 28 per cent silting up of storages and failure to built new reservoirs, this year's failure has another dimension despite raising the Mangla Dam by 40 feet, the country could not store water in it because of resettlement issues of the affecttees. The resettlement money was part of the package and the colonies had to be built together with dam raising to move people there. But somebody somewhere bungled up the whole process, which needs to be fixed and the responsible ones taken to task.

The Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) - the executing agency - was insisting on raising the lake level by eight feet - 1,210 feet, against traditional 1,202 feet - as late as mid-August. Earlier, it had issued standard operating procedures (SOPs) for dam filling and had promised to take lake level to 1,210 feet. But, later the dam level was restricted to 1,203.5 feet, which even is 2.5 feet less than where the Wapda had taken the dam once in mid-90s. No one mentioned the resettlement problem then, at least up to 1,206 feet.

Had Wapda been able to follow its own SOPs and taken the level to 1,210 feet, it could have stored additional 500,000 acre feet water and helped reduce the Rabi shortages. To compound the tragedy, abundant water was available till the end of August but the country could not store additional water despite investing over one billion dollars for creating additional storage.

According to agriculture experts and Wapda's own calculations, the 0.5 million acre feet, which could have been stored in those fateful eight feet, is sufficient to irrigate 200,000 acres even with traditional flood irrigation, much more by pressure irrigation. Agriculture experts calculate fiscal benefit of $2 billion to the economy with each million acre feet added to storage. By that calculation, 500,000 acre feet water could have benefited agriculture and economy by $1 billion. The Mangla Dam raising project, supposed to create additional three million acre feet, is already delayed by two years, which had cost the country $6 billion on the water head alone.

But this year, failure to store additional water for procedural problems merits an investigative commission to fix the responsibility and punish the guilty. The Wapda officials claim that the government blocked compensation money for the last two years, forcing a delay on residential colonies where affecttees had to be moved.

These Rabi shortages would have three-dimensional negative impact i.e. agricultural, human and industrial. The agricultural impact is the most talked about and documented as it happens almost every year. The industrial impact is just beginning to dawn on the people, and human dimension is the most neglected one.

If water shortage is apportioned to the Rabi crops, wheat emerges as the biggest loser either the yield will fall or the cost of production will go up, and the country will suffer either way. The wheat planners are reportedly consoling themselves with healthy carry over stocks, which can ensure next year's food security even if production suffers due to water shortage. If so, it would be myopia at its worst. Instead of dealing with agriculture surpluses and taking fiscal benefit out of them, it would be like restricting domestic production and losing economic opportunities.

What these surpluses can bring to the country could be gauged from huge wheat and rice stocks, which, if exported at the current international price, could fetch $1.5 billion. Instead, the government is dangling begging bowl world over and ignoring export potential.

The industrial sector has hit a grinding halt, and would continue in a state of limbo as Rabi shortage restrict hydro power generation. The sector would either keep units closed or shift to exorbitantly expensive thermal and run the risk of loosing competitive advantage in the world market.

The third dimension of the Rabi crisis would be worsening water supplies downstream Kotri Barrage and some parts of the southern Punjab, where people depend on these supplies even for drinking purposes. During this monsoon (July-September) over 5.5 million acre has been allowed to flow downstream Kotri but the area would now be deprived of drinking supplies during the Rabi season as massive shortage make farmers scramble for each drop of water.

The same situation will grip some southern parts of Punjab where people went without water for months during last year, triggering human migration and massive loss of livestock.

The people have a right to ask who is responsible for aggravating their water woes. When a facility has been created for additional water, who stopped its usage and left the country dealing with food insecurity, industrial downturn and people without water for the whole six months.