The revolutionary movement in the Middle East has malformed into a messy affair as expected. With the exception of Tunisia, the seeds of revolution have not yet borne fruit as Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria are still in turmoil; either on the brink of civil war or face the looming threat of military takeover.

The Arab Spring also stirred up talks of a similar movement in Pakistan where the youth has become increasingly disillusioned with the present status quo but despite several socio-political similarities between Pakistan and the Arab countries a similar revolution did not occur here. The wave of civil resistance that originated in the Maghrib gradually made its way into the Arabian Peninsula and its adjoining countries. The revolutionaries were met by violent responses by authorities in some countries and by Developmental Stimulus Packages in others (prime specimen being Saudi Arabia).

The Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia saw the departure of Ben Ali and a relatively smooth the transition to a democratic system in which the long banned party Al-Nadha has gained majority of the votes to great dismay of the liberal and leftist political forces in Tunisia. Al-Nadah is popularly perceived as an Islamist party in the West and great speculation exists about its ideological orientation, whereas Al-Nadah is positioning itself as a moderate and progressive political party that will strive to uphold Tunisia’s secular values.

The greatest triumph of the Arab Spring was supposed to be Egypt, the centre piece of western strategic alliances in the Middle East for the safeguard of Israel. After the 30 year reign of Hosni Mubarak, the political landscape seems to have changed in Egypt but the military is still calling the shots. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has delayed lifting of the emergency law in place since 1981. In addition, the military has also introduced a draft constitutional principle that will prevent parliamentary over sight of the military budget and give it a semi-autonomous character in the new constitution to effectively control internal affairs (reminds me of a country in the former sub-continent).

The military has pledged to speed up the transfer of power to a civilian government but the most important question is which party will win majority votes in the upcoming parliamentary elections? At the moment, the strongest and most organised political force in Egypt seems to be the Muslim Brotherhood. Traditionally advocates of Islamic reform, the Brotherhood has radically revamped its image and ideology to fit in with Egypt’s secular and progressive-minded youth. It’s a sure bet that neighboring Israel and its Western patrons would not want the Muslim Brotherhood running the show in a state as important as Egypt, hence one can expect a tumultuous transition to “democracy” in Egypt.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen has finally signed a US backed power transfer deal through the intermediation of the Gulf States. Saleh has a bad habit of agreeing to power transfer deals and then going back on his word but this time it seems the deal will last. Yemen is a very sensitive country for the anti-terror crusaders because of the heavy presence of al Qaeda. Yemen is believed to be the hotbed of al Qaeda activities in the region and home to the organisation called al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

The societal structure in Yemen is highly tribalistic. Naturally this tribalism seeps into domestic politics; hence the political landscape in Yemen is characterised by the rivalry between powerful tribes and the military interference. Therefore, the greatest predicament in a post-Saleh scenario would be reconciliation between rival tribes under a democratic framework to prevent an outbreak of civil war.

In Syria, Bahar al-Asad’s despotic regime has tried to crush the uprising with an iron fist resulting in blood baths at the hands of the government security apparatus. Syria’s Arab League membership has been suspended and all regional heavy weights, including Turkey, have urged Asad to step down. Syria is facing sanctions from Western powers just like long time ally Iran and sanctions by the Arab League are expected to follow. Similar to Yemen, the political arena in Syria is ruled by the tribal opponents of the ruling family, the Syrian National Council and the Free Syrian Army. Even if Bashar al-Asad steps down, it will be a long and arduous path towards stability given the various stake holders within the country. Western policy makers view Syria as crucial component of their strategy to check Iranian influence in the region.

Operation Odyssey Dawn that brought down Qadhafi and his regime has given Nato something to gloat about after repeatedly failing in Afghanistan. Oil companies and engineering firms are rushing to Libya to get contracts worth billions of dollars from the interim government. Libya is one of the top oil producers where the cost of extraction and refining is lowest in the world. I think that says it all about ‘whys’ and ‘whats’ concerning Nato in Libya.

The Arab Spring may seem at the moment to be an Arab winter of discontent but whatever the difficulties and complexities that lay ahead for these nations and whatever may be its outcome; the people of these states will have no regrets. They will enjoy the satisfaction of having tried to bring change or have changed the system to improve their lives. They will be able to tell future generations that they bled for their country when they tried to save it from the clutches of self-serving men and did not simply sit back and watch.

The Arab Spring has been a glaring example of the triumph of the human spirit and whether it reaches fruition or not there are important lessons to be learned by a nation in peril (like ours) from the persistence and vigor of the Arab youth that has decided that they will not leave fate to chance.

The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.