With two National Assembly and five provincial assembly seats, it is difficult to predict the results that the coming elections will produce from Abbottabad district. The political scene here was dominated by the PML-N in 2008, but the party is facing an uphill task in retaining its supremacy.

Sardar Mehtab Ahmed Khan of the PML-N will defend NA-17, and faces a tough challenge from his arch-rival, Dr Azhar Khan Jadoon of the PTI. The latter contested the last general elections as an independent candidate and ended the runner-up with 36,668 votes, versus the 58,041 votes won by Sardar Mehtab Ahmed Khan.

In the 2002 general elections, too, Dr Azhar Khan Jadoon was the runner-up with 30,949 votes while the seat was won by Amanullah Khan Jadoon with 44,716 votes. In the upcoming polls, it is expected to be a one-on-one contest in this constituency.

Baba Haider Zaman, vocal leader of the Tehreek-i-Sooba Hazara, has also joined the race along with nine other candidates. He is contesting from NA-17 and NA-18, though he is likely to concentrate on the latter which is his home consistency. Earlier, he contested against PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif in this constituency.

Dr Azhar Khan Jadoon feels that despite receiving a heavy mandate in this area, the PML-N failed to deliver the goods and betrayed the trust of the people of Hazara when the erstwhile NWFP was being renamed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This, he says, resulted in riots in Abbottabad and in the entire Hazara belt. He believes that people have decided to vote for change this time, and that the Imran Khan factor will give him an edge since Amanullah Khan Jadoon is out of the contest. This fact, he feels, will give him a huge share from the Jadoon tribe vote bank, which was earlier divided. In Dr Azhar’s view, his contribution to the Hazara movement has been as big as that of Baba Haider Zaman and he will face no difficulties on this count.

Sardar Mehtab Ahmed Khan, for his part, is sanguine in his certainty that the people of Abbottabad prefer Nawaz Sharif. “They are firm believers that the PML-N alone is the party to steer the country out of the current crises,” he says.

In the 2008 general elections, Sardar Mehtab Ahmed Khan and Murtaza Javed Abbasi, both from the PML-N, won NA-17 and NA-18 respectively. Meanwhile, out of five provincial assembly seats, four were clinched by PML-N candidates: Inayatullah Khan Jadoon, Barrister Javed Abbasi, Aurangzeb Nulhota and Sardar Mehtab Abbasi. The last quit the provincial assembly seat which was retained by his son Shamoon Mehtab Abbasi in the by-election.

The PML-N, which has traditionally been the primary stakeholder in the politics of Abbottabad, suffered such a substantial setback in 2010 when the NWFP was renamed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that its central and provincial leaders were unable even to attend public functions. Nevertheless, the party has made a comeback and is trying to recapture its prominence. Whether the voters will be wooed remains to be seen.

In NA-18 (Abbottabad-II), the PML-N depends on former MNA Murtaza Abbasi while Sardar Muhammad Yaqoub, former deputy speaker of the National Assembly who was defeated in the last elections, has joined the PTI. He is considered a close rival of Baba Haider Zaman.

On all the five provincial assembly seats (PK-44 through PK-48), former lawmakers who won their seats in 2008 are likely to face a tough challenge from the candidates fielded by the PPP, PTI, Tehreek-i-Sooba Hazara, Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Jamaat-i-Islami and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl. Presently, the PML-N has an edge over its rivals, but the issues such as the renaming of the NWFP and the movement for a Hazara province are likely to damage its vote bank and the results may turn out to be surprising.