HYDERABAD, May 9: The May 11 general elections, just 24 hours or so away, have generated a lot of interest among the people after the controversial governance by the outgoing PPP-led alliance government in Sindh.

It is in sharp contrast to the 2008 elections, when in view of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, it was widely predicted that the PPP would sweep the polls.

But this time the incumbency factor seems to be haunting the PPP besides the alignment of anti-PPP forces, though ideologically poles apart, under the leadership of Pir Sibghatullah Shah Rashdi, the sitting spiritual leader of the Hurs.

The 10-party alliance — formed only two months back — is in fact an effort, mainly by the Pakistan Muslim League-Functional, to deny the PPP a majority in the next Sindh Assembly on the basis of narrative that the PPP had divided Sindh through the Sindh People’s Local Government Act 2012 with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM).

The alliance that includes religious and secular parties has fielded joint candidates on certain seats in Sindh, whereas many seats still remain free for component parties to try their luck on. Since it remained an electoral alliance not registered with the Election Commission of Pakistan, it did not get a common election symbol. Apparently things did not go the way they were designed by the alliance although PML-F leaders say that in 80 per cent cases seat adjustments were finalised with consensus.

There are no two opinions that the PPP is feeling the heat in the elections, but it is more on account of its own follies than any serious effort by the alliance. It is going into elections with the baggage of its poor governance, lack of communication between its parliamentarians and the masses, local government law, the sale of islands, mismanagement of relief goods after the 2010 floods and 2011 rains and lack of transparency in provision of jobs in Sindh. But the PPP was smart enough to get rid of the LG law stigma by repealing it days before it was to complete its term, forcing the MQM to sit on opposition benches, though many believe it was done with arrangement to have an interim setup that suited both.

A serious drawback, undoubtedly, for the PPP is the fact that its leadership has not been able to launch a fully-fledged election campaign amid serious threats to it by the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan. The party’s patron Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari remains out of the country for security concerns while President Asif Zardari has been restrained by courts from running a campaign.

The party has tried to focus locally on every constituency. “We have to fight elections, not to collect bodies,” says PPP Parliamentarian president Makhdoom Amin Fahim, who is facing a somewhat serious challenge in his hometown constituency where he is forced to run a door-to-door campaign in any urban constituency.

“I am facing problem only because of the fact that our workers had some serious issues with my area’s MNA as he failed to maintain a regular contact with them….and there are issues among party workers which should have been taken care of by the party’s district chapter,” confides with Dawn a former minister contesting on a provincial assembly seat.

The party doesn’t consider the 10-party alliance a serious threat to it but it realises that there are problems within constituencies that are being handled.

Leaders such as Taj Hyder see it differently. He says he believes that the party is comfortable in Sindh. He points to this year’s by-election held on PS-21 of Naushahro Feroze as a yardstick to judge the popularity of the PPP’s opponents. The PS-21 seat had fallen vacant due to the PPP’s Dr Ahmed Ali Shah’s disqualification on account of his dual nationality.

“Remember, our own MNA [Zaffar Ali Shah] had worked against us wholeheartedly and the parties which are in alliance did make serious efforts to beat us yet we emerged victorious,” Mr Hyder says. But he admits one thing. “Contest in Shikarpur or for that matter in some other constituency like Hala is really tough. We are working on it seriously, be it Agha Siraj versus Zulfiqar Kamario or Imtiaz Sheikh and Agha Taimor’s electoral fight on the provincial seats of Shikarpur district but again the deletion of bogus votes is to play a key role,” he says.

Analysts say the PPP is going to maintain its numerical strength, getting more or less 60 general seats in the provincial assembly. According to such assessments, if the PML-F has the potential to dent the PPP’s constituency, upsets even in the PML-F’s strongholds such as Sanghar and Khairpur also cannot be ruled out.

Seeds of the present anti-PPP alliance were sown when the Mahars, Jatois, Shirazis and Pir Pagara had initially decided to contest elections like a group but then it did not materialise, and Ghotki’s influential Mahars were the first ones to leave the boat. They were in fact lured in by President Asif Ali Zardari. Even Thatta’s Shirazis joined the PPP but quit after a few days to contest polls independently. PPP leaders had tried to bring into its fold all electables of Sindh to achieve a clean sweep, but the LG law controversy that saw its allies quitting the government had in fact upset the apple cart.

Sindhi nationalists, as usual, on the other hand could not get along with one another too. The Sindh Progressive Nationalist Alliance that was formed a few years back as an electoral alliance against the PPP by four mainstream nationalist parties could not remain intact. To date it remains dormant and in the words of Dr Qadir Magsi SPNA will not be able to work in the future. One of its main architects, Shah Mohammad Shah, had left his nephew’s Sindh United Party after he was denied a party ticket on PS-43 (Hala) by SUP at the instance of Pir Pagara.

Still, the PPP is not out of the woods. For instance, it faces trouble in constituencies such as Ghotki, where two MNA seats are given to the Mahar brothers, inviting the ire of PPP candidate Ahmed Ali Pitafi, who is contesting PS-7. He is being persuaded by the party to give up supporting Khalid Lund on NA-200 against Ali Gohar Mahar. Similarly, Dr Sohrab Sarki, the PPP candidate, is facing his own elder brother, Zulfikar Sarki, on PS-15 (Jacobabad) and Mumtaz Khan of the PPP is facing his own uncle, Mir Ahmed Nawaz Jakhrani, on PS-13 in addition to powerful Mir Manzoor Panwhar, who had remained with the PPP in 2002 but then formed the PPP (Patriots) to claim his share in the cake. Above all, the situation is embarrassing for the PPP in Larkana, where Faryal Talpur, Ayaz Soomro and Nisar Khuhro are in the run. The party has recently withdrawn its support on one of Larkana’s provincial seat for Altaf Unnar, contesting polls on the party’s official symbol of ‘arrow’ against Suhail Anwar Siyal, now being backed by the PPP.

A senior Sindhi nationalist leader, Abdul Khaliq Junejo, says he believes that the nationalist forces had in fact lost their battle without even starting it. “People who were looking towards them felt disappointed after the nationalists themselves became part of a Pir-led alliance,” says Mr Junejo. He examines elections quite critically, saying: “When in 1970 the first elections were held in the country a certain programme was seen at work, but having gone 40 years down the road these are elections that are going to be fought more between individuals than parties.”

He says the people were really fed up with the PPP government and they had started looking towards the nationalist forces, but surprisingly the very people embraced an alliance, giving up their own identity. “One thing that I can quite confidently say is that the nationalists are not going to make any major gains in these elections to emerge as a parliamentary force,” he says.

The alliance could have made a serious dent in the PPP’s powerbase if joint candidates were fielded on all seats. Differences within component parties and subsequent lack of consensus among them on candidates served to provide a breathing space to the PPP to consolidate its position. But it had to face infighting within the party due to ticket-related controversies and local defections although the leadership later tried to offset the issues. The PPP has come up with some powerful and emotional ad content, focusing on the late Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. Will it pay the dividends is to be seen on May 11.