SWABI, April 22: Unlike the last two elections, Awami National Party stands a good chance of winning the NA-12, Swabi seat this time around, according to local political observers.

The reasons cited for it are massive development work by the last ANP government during five years in the constituency, especially construction of roads, establishment of educational institutions, including University of Swabi, creation of Razaar tehsil, vast canvassing by ANP candidate Haji Rehmanullah, and former MNA Engineer Usman Khan Tarakai’s unpopularity chiefly due to prolonged absence from the area.

Haji Rehmanullah will confront Engineer Usman of Awami Jamhoori Ittehad Pakistan, Usman Khan of Jamaat-i-Islami, Gohar Inqilabi of Pakistan People’s Party, Anwar Haq Dad of Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf, Mohammad Israr of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Murad Ali of Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, Abdul Hakeem of Muttahida Dani Mahaz, Najeeb Khan of Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Nazriyati, Ishaqullah Khan of JUI-Fazl, and independent candidates Khalid Ibrar and Shah Faisal.

During the last elections, Engineer Usman had defeated ANP chief Asfandyar Wali Khan.

Traditionally, the constituency is considered a stronghold of ANP but in the 2002 and 2008 elections, ANP candidates lost the local National Assembly seat to anti-ANP forces, which had fielded joint candidates.

The constituency has three provincial assembly seats i.e. PK-31, PK-32 and PK-33.

Two of them were won by ANP candidates in the 2008 elections.

In the 1988 elections, late Abdul Khaliq Khan of ANP (40,257 votes) defeated late Abdul Mastan Khan of PPP (33,604 votes) in the National Assembly constituency.

In the 1990 elections, ANP’s Haji Rehmanullah claimed the seat by defeating Saleem Khan of Pakistan Democratic Alliance with a margin of 23,159 votes.

However, Maulana Fazlullah of JUI-F, who has now settled in the US, routed Rehmanullah of ANP in the 1993 elections with the support of PPP, Pakistan Muslim League and religious parties.

He secured 55,055 votes, while Rehmanullah bagged 49,349 votes.

In 1997, Rehmanullah reclaimed win by beating Iftikhar Ahmed Khan of PML-N, who was the runner-up. That was the last time that PML-N performed well in the elections. No PML-N candidate has ever been a runner-up since.

In the 2002 elections, Mohammad Usman of Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal grabbed 53,825 votes, defeating Sheharyar Khan of ANP, who got 32,038 votes.

The alliance of religious parties, support of anti-ANP forces and failure of ANP candidates to live up to the people’s expectations are considered the main factors, which led to the success of Engineer Usman against ANP chief Asfandyar Wali from the constituency in the 2008 elections. Engineer Usman and Asfandyar bagged 49,872 and 49,574 votes respectively.

Said Mukhtar Ahmad of MMA received 1,462 votes, Umar Farooq Khan of Pakistan People’s Party-Parliamentarians 7,163 votes and Raziq Dad of Pakistan Awami Party 775 votes.

The voter turnout was 39.26 per cent.

According to political observers, anti-ANP support and strong financial position led to Engineer Usman’s victory.

However, ANP activists believe that Asfandyar Wali lost election because he could not attend election rallies due to threat to his life.

They are however hopeful that ANP will reclaim the NA-12 seat during the May 11 elections.

According to them, Rehmanullah is a strong candidate, who was instrumental in the creation of Razaar tehsil, and will emerge as victorious this time around.