KAYANI must go. No extensions, no sinecure, no new job with old powers, no old job with new powers. Home. And Sharif must be the man to do it.

When it comes to all things army, everything gets complicated deliberately. Who runs the army today and how the military is organised today makes not an iota of difference to the fight against militancy at home or a post-2014 settlement in Afghanistan. Zero. Zilch. None.

Everything gets deliberately complicated when it comes to all things army because that’s how the army spins it.

Well, you see, if you move this around to there and shuffle that around to here, then things will be better because better is better and this is a better way to do things and it’s all very complicated and difficult because civilians don’t really understand this stuff. Nonsense.

There are no indispensables. Never have been, never will be. There are legends, there are heroes, there are the right leaders at the right time, there are leaders forged in the crucible of circumstance — but there are no indispensables.

Institutions need continuity, not continuous individuals. Fresh blood, new ideas, leadership anew. Erode that principle and everyone loses. Descend into the argument of circumstance and happenstance, and everyone loses.

The military may need reorganising, the army may need a different set-up at the top, but necessary or desirable restructuring must never be tied to the fate of a single man.

Throw open the debate, constitute a commission, convene a series of meetings, debate what needs to be done and then do it — when the fate of a single man is not hanging over the entire process.

Do it now, do it this way — an extension or a newfangled position — and the game is up. For Nawaz. And for the rest of us, who live in the forlorn hope that one day a better Pakistan may be possible.

Nawaz has a choice, a very real one. Sandila for CJCSC; one, two or three in seniority as COAS. It would send a simple, powerful, double-pronged message.

The army has claimed the CJCSC slot for itself because of the nukes: the argument being that the country’s nuclear programme cannot be overseen by one of the smaller forces.

It is only an argument, never debated, never questioned, never explained — and there’s absolutely no reason to accept it. Just because the army says so, doesn’t automatically make it so.

Maybe once that was true, but Sandila, the naval chief, to CJCSC would send a powerful message to the boys: new rules, fair rules, rules decided by the civilians.

Gens 1, 2 or 3 in seniority — Aslam, Mahmood or Sharif — to COAS would also send a message. No games, no favourites, no second-guessing, no politicking. If they’re good enough to make it to the top three, one of them is good enough to be No 1. That’s the system, that’s how it’s meant to work.

Go lower down the rungs in search of a chief and folk will inevitably start to question why. Is the DGI the favourite because he kept out of the election in Punjab, earning himself the ultimate reward? Is Tariq Khan a favourite because the Americans like his gung-ho approach to fighting militancy?

Pick from the top three and Nawaz would be signalling to the boys that he’s not playing games, not working the angles, not trying to get some kind of an edge from the only office that could pose a threat to him. Simple. Clean. A rules-based appointment to put the army at ease.

That’s the good option: Sandila to CJCSC, one, two or three for COAS.

There is a terrible option, the one that just won’t die: Kayani to be adjusted somewhere, in uniform, with power.

It’s spun as the apologetic necessary, the unwanted inevitable: Afghanistan has to be figured out, and there’s only one guy to do it — the guy who has been around since forever.

But however it’s spun, there is one, only one, single, solitary, singular reason Kayani could be accommodated: Nawaz is afraid of a coup.

Splitting the COAS’s powers, divesting the office of its power to make or break generals’ careers, or keeping Kayani where he is would betray the most depressing of all Pakistani realities: a three-term PM, elected with a solid mandate, the lion of Punjab, he of the will to change Pakistan is afraid of a coup.

Were he to do it, were Nawaz to keep the general around, his prime ministership would be over. Dead. Finished. Done in less than six months.

For Nawaz could complete his term, spend five years in power, but nothing would erase the spectacular capitulation, the grovelling and pleading, the prostrateness of giving a two-term chief another lease of life.

Fear a coup so openly, so desperately, so early on, and nothing you do subsequently will erase the stain or hide the fear.

There is no good reason on God’s green earth for Nawaz to give Kayani another lease of life. No — good — reason. None whatsoever.

Nawaz has, in fact, actually, truly, really, been handed a godsend. Through no doing of his own, four months into his term, fate has given him the chance to choose his own, and Pakistan’s, destiny.

Nawaz has the notification already: Sandila as CJCSC; general one, two or three waiting to be pencilled in as COAS.

All Nawaz has to do is say no. No, Gen K, no more. The show will go on, without you.

Saying no is sometimes the hardest thing to do. But say yes, and Nawaz will become the new Zardari: the man who elevated survival over everything else.

The writer is a member of staff.

cyril.a@gmail.com

Twitter: @cyalm