First normal election in 40 years

One must never confuse elections with electioneering. Many journalists get elections wrong because they report electioneering, rather than elections. This is not their fault. Media is a hungry monster, and its appetite extends from chutney and achar to the daily sacrifice of a suitable victim. A report on the elections would be merely one day's story.

But electioneering is a constant source of fun: statements, replies, offence, counterattack, allegation, exaggeration, mistakes. It's a carnival. In India, it's a Russian circus, packed with trapeze artists swinging dangerously from party to party (a few reversing direction in mid-air); clowns chanting gibberish; and celebrities prancing on horses.

The knives are out: slow movers wield their weapons to stab in the back; the cleverer types puncture egos with concealed stilettos. The stakes could not be higher, and ethics are not a priority requirement in this game. It's nice if you have them, but not at the cost of defeat.

Why would reporting elections be minimalist? Because the essence of an election is not controlled by the din of the campaign, but the response to one or two questions that address dominant concerns. Such questions are often obvious.

This is the first election since 1962 without a dramatic backdrop. 1967 was a bitter and chaotic contest between main and fringe parties within a stark, sullen and despairing electorate.

There was famine across the north (Mother Teresa became a national figure thanks to Raghu Rai's superb photography of her work in the Bihar famine), and the government of India was begging for food from Washington, granted under a scheme called PL 480. Language riots had ripped through the fabric of unity.

Muslims were under assault in riots engineered by Congress governments in the states, after the Congress government in the centre had wounded them malevolently during the 1965 war with Pakistan. Prairie fires lit by the Naxalites had spread across the country. The young had no hope, the elders were eyeless. The Congress lost every state from Punjab to Bengal and would have lost Delhi as well if the South had not saved it.

1971, in complete contrast, was as startlingly optimistic as 1967 was dismal. Indira Gandhi merged hope with vision. The first breakthroughs of the Green Revolution promised an India that was self-sufficient in food. Food would eliminate poverty.

Indira Gandhi challenged the traditional elites, and taunted them with people's power. Her slogan was perfect for its moment: Woh kahte hain Indira hatao, main kahti hoon gharibi hatao. (They want to remove Indira, I want to remove poverty).

It is a message that still resonates in the hearts of those under the poverty line. It was perfect positioning: the popular champion as victim of the manipulators. (Those Congress leaders who have devised the silly slogan "Anyone But Vajpayee" obviously have no idea of history. To demonize a popular leader for no given reason is utterly counterproductive.) The 1971 results were an upheaval.

1977 was as dark as 1971 was light. And in that darkness, the Indian electorate proved its enchanting strength. If the Emergency of 1975 threatened the end of democracy, the 1977 elections confirmed that no dictator would ever rule India again.

A Janata government replaced Indira Gandhi, and after a year of promise began to defy common sense. The pendulum reversed. The 1980 elections were a sharp vote against irresponsibility and bad governance. Indira Gandhi returned to power. What no one realized at the moment of her second triumph was that she had become fundamentally flawed.

Hubris ran havoc; dynasty was established; and misjudgment bred secession in Punjab, arguably India's most patriotic state. The desecration of the Akal Takht led directly to the assassination of Indira Gandhi; anger and sympathy gave Rajiv Gandhi the largest mandate in Indian history, in an election whose consistent image was fire.

The fires of revolt were replaced by the fire of a gun, Bofors: Rajiv was painted in the lurid colours of corruption, and his image could never recover. The results of 1989 said it all. The nineties were consumed by different kinds of fire, of casteism and communalism. And the election of 1999 was held in the shadows of Kargil.

2004 then is the first "normal" election in nearly 40 years. Are you surprised that the voter should be relieved, and indeed feel good about the absence of hysteria? The young, instead of being urged to go to some war or the other, are being promised peace and development. They would be idiotic not to feel the difference. Atal Behari Vajpayee has not become an icon of the MTV generation by accident.

I hope though that he has written out a personal thank you note to the opposition. Sonia Gandhi's text was neatly trapped by context. The BJP created a sophisticated two-phase campaign that first established the central theme of the battleground, and then swivelled the battle into a presidential contest between Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi. "India Shining" was attacked from the wrong end.

The Congress challenged the shine, but the slogan was about India far more than it was about India's economy. The difference might be subtle, but it is vital. It was less about the truth, and more about the promise.

The BJP used a partial fact (the statistics of its last phase in power) to promote a vision: Indians can turn India into a developed nation. The Congress had nothing in place when the campaign broke. The BJP literally walked into empty space in the popular imagination.

The only message that the Congress had communicated in five years was that it wanted Sonia Gandhi as prime minister, but no one was told why, or how this would make India and Indians better off. It was cult worship of the flimsiest kind, because it was built around vulnerability.

Having established the theme of positive nationalism, the BJP has switched the debate from the general to the specific. Any good marketing man will tell that macro has to be backed by micro; that the product is nothing without a credible delivery mechanism.

The switch occurred when both Prime Minister Vajpayee and Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani asked the country to examine the issue of foreign origin as a political question rather than a personal one, and in calm rather than accusatory tones.

Nationalism is a very powerful impetus, and Sonia Gandhi does not understand that it takes more than a passport to make you a claimant for the job of prime minister of India. Moreover, that passport was taken only when Rajiv Gandhi became a candidate for prime minister.

Sonia Maino could have become a naturalized Indian when she married Rajiv and became a Gandhi in 1968. But she filed an application to remain a foreigner for five years, as she was permitted by Indian law to do. Even in 1973 she was not convinced that she wanted to be an Indian rather than an Italian. She applied for another five years as a foreign resident, as she did again in 1978.

It was only in the last week of her permit in 1983, when Rajiv Gandhi was heir apparent, that she asked for an Indian passport. These facts may mean very little to some of us, but they mean a great deal to a lot of us. In any case, they are fodder for the BJP propaganda machine, which is currently in very high gear. Other questions will be raised as well.

Most of this vulnerability would have been erased if Sonia Gandhi had shown the leadership needed to resurrect the Congress. Uniquely, the party has shrunk under her despite being out of power. Normally, a party grows when out of office.

The fact is that Sonia Gandhi lost the election two years ago when she could not take advantage of Gujarat. India was not shining then, as Vajpayee himself admitted in parliament. That was the weak moment of the government, and it was given a chance to reinvent itself.

Every government promises prosperity. Vajpayee is the first prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to promise peace with Pakistan. Through SAARC he has linked this peace to economic growth as well, but the deeper focus is on the return of human relationships in our subcontinent.

This is slowly becoming a primal motivator for key sections of the electorate. Pakistani commentators have written on the surprise of visiting Indians at the warmth they received during the cricket games. They have pointed out Pakistanis stopped the game of demonizing Indians some time ago.

Something even more startling is happening in India. Since 1965, confrontation with Pakistan has been the bread and butter of political rhetoric. The BJP has been in the forefront of such politics. Even the most quiescent of doves would not have dared to dream in 1999 that peace could actually become a vote-winner. The implicit question is: can Sonia Gandhi deliver peace with Pakistan, which, if it ever comes, can only emerge through a difficult and delicate process?

With so many shysters around, the credibility of opinion polls was bound to suffer. But there is one opinion that remains unwavering, no matter who measures it. In any comparison between Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi the difference in favour of Vajpayee is either 70:30 or even greater. That indicates two things: the voter's comfort levels with a very Indian Vajpayee, and his unease with Sonia Gandhi.

For five years the government lulled the Congress by saying little and doing nothing about the foreign origins of Sonia Gandhi. They were waiting for April 2004.

The writer is editor-in-chief of Asian Age, New Delhi.

Hawks and doves

The ruling elites of Pakistan represent a house divided against itself when it comes to normalizing relations with India. Similar is the case with the Indian ruling elites. It is gratifying to note that the Indian leadership has rightly concluded that the latest, somewhat belligerent, remarks of President Pervez Musharraf about progress on the resolution of the Kashmir issue had arisen out of domestic compulsions.

There are hawks and doves on both sides. The stakes for the doves as well as the hawks are high. Mostly behind closed doors, the struggle amongst the elites in each country is fierce.

The doves see their benefits significantly enhanced through changing the status quo by normalizing relations with the other country. The hawks want to continue to enjoy the benefits under the status quo.

The billion-plus people do not appear in the equation. War is waged in their name and peace is also claimed in their name. Yet it is the high interest which weighs heavily in the process of decision-making to bring about normalcy between the two countries.

Perceptibly, the doves are gaining strength relative to the hawks. They are not strong enough yet to prevail over the hawks. They have yet to prove the case that normalization of relations will bring immense dividends to them.

The hawks have a proven case in the form of the immense benefits that the ruling elites have reaped in the past. The passions and prejudices of the past also go in favour of the hawks.

The doves initiate an agreement, the hawks shoot it down and do not allow it to be implemented. Examples abound. Foreign secretaries Niaz Naik and Rasgotra almost concluded a draft agreement for improving relations between the two countries. The Pakistani hawks shot it down.

Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and his Pakistani counterpart approved a settlement of the conflict at Siachen. The Indian hawks shot it down. Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral initiated and approved a format for a comprehensive dialogue at the level of secretaries. The Indian hawks shot it down.

Vital ground-breaking agreements at the Lahore summit between the prime ministers of Pakistan and India got blown up on the Kargil heights by the Pakistani hawks. The consensus on a document between Prime Minister Vajpayee and Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh on one side and President Musharraf and Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar on the other side at Agra took no time to be shot down by the hawks in India.

Following the attack on their parliament in December 2001, the Indian hawks reigned supreme. They brought armies on Pakistan's border and carried out a propaganda war. While Pakistan offered a renewal of dialogue at any time, any place without any conditions, the Indian doves took their time.

With great deliberation and sophistication the Indian doves cleared the ground and met their Pakistani counterparts early this year.

On February 18, 2004, the foreign secretaries announced a schedule for a composite dialogue: the foreign secretaries would meet in May/June for talks on peace and security including confidence-building measures and Jammu and Kashmir.

They further announced that talks on Siachen; Sir Creek; terrorism and drug trafficking; economic and cultural cooperation; and promotion of friendly exchanges in various fields will be held at agreed levels in July.

The agreement also provided that the foreign minister of Pakistan and the external affairs minister of India would meet in August to review overall progress. This was a giant step forward.

The text of the agreement of February 18 was negotiated in great secrecy. The announcement caused consternation among the hawks in Pakistan. The doves of Pakistan had staged a significant coup against their hawks. However, the pendulum had swung a bit too far.

A correction was due in favour of the hawks. It came in the remarks made by General Pervez Musharraf while answering questions before select audiences in Delhi and Islamabad. He seemed to indicate that progress must be seen in the composite dialogue on the question of Kashmir by July/August.

Progress with India on the Kashmir issue will be an empty one unless the Kashmiris have full participation in the process. The two governments are hardly strong enough to impose a solution on the former state against the wishes of the people of Kashmir.

Unfortunately, the doves in the governments of Pakistan and India have done little to mobilize the forces of peace and settlement in Kashmir. Meanwhile hawks on both sides are having their way.

The two governments have failed to realize how easy their task would be, how weak the hawks of India and Pakistan would become if the people of the former state were mobilized for peace and settlement.

Meanwhile, help has come to hawks as well as doves from two sources. The announcement by US Secretary of State Colin Powell, conferring on Pakistan the status of a non-Nato ally, is bound to strengthen the hands of the hawks in India. For the present the "status" only means that certain sanctions against sale and transfer of war material against Pakistan will be lifted.

The adverse effect of the high-profile announcement upon the future of the composite dialogue should have been foreseen. Colin Powell should not have been allowed to make the announcement in this fashion. There were many ways to say the same thing. Why did the US choose this particular mode?

Extraordinarily huge help has come to the doves of Pakistan and India from the people of both the countries. In the last few months, the bon homie exhibited by the people in criss-crossing the borders in very large numbers enormously strengthens the hands of the doves.

Now the ruling doves can reduce the flow of human traffic only at their own peril. They should let Kashmiris also criss-cross the Line of Control in the same fashion and reap the dividend in the form of peace and settlement.

Police asked to improve image

The Law and Justice Ministry and the range police jointly organized a workshop on 'Protection of human rights and responsibility of police' here the other day. It was attended by judges, journalists, intellectuals and senior police officers. Punjab Food Minister Chaudhry Mohammad Iqbal was the chief guest.

Speaking on the occasion, he said protection of human rights was an important issue all over the world which was being neglected in all societies. Islam teaches us to protect human rights and provide justice to the oppressed people instantly.

He said good and evil were a part of society, and it was our collective responsibility to protect human rights by giving respect and honour to each other. The police and other government functionaries should play their role in building confidence in the people by providing them justice on merit.

Punjab additional inspector general of police Syed Azhar Hasan Nadeem said protection of human rights was the responsibility of the police which could be promoted with the cooperation of the people. He was of the view that a close contact and liaison between the police and the people could be helpful in the elimination of crime and protection of human rights.

He admitted that the police image was not what it should be as a result of which no fruitful result was coming out. He said the gap between the police and the public should be bridged.

Former chief justice of the Lahore High Court Mian Allah Nawaz said self-accountability and sense of exercising the executive power by human society could be helpful in the protection of human rights.

District and sessions judge Riazul Hasan said criticism of the police had become a virus, and the police would have to restore its image by changing its attitude and developing confidence and trust in the people. He said the judiciary was taking steps to provide prompt justice to the oppressed through speedy trial, and it was the responsibility of all government functionaries, including the police, to remove the people's grievances.

DIG Chaudhry Altaf Ahmad, DPO Saud Aziz and others stressed the need for a cooperation with the police in the elimination of crime. They claimed the crime graph in Gujranwala had fallen due to police efforts against criminals.

Later, shields and certificates were distributed among the participants by the chief guest and the additional IG.

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Speakers at a seminar organized by the Pakistan Medical Association (PMA) recently expressed concern over the shortage of doctors at rural health centres and divisional headquarters hospital, besides medicine and other facilities, and demanded that qualified medical officers and experts should be posted at RHCs and the DHQ Hospital in accordance with the staff strength approved by the government.

Speakers, including district coordination officer Fazeel Asghar, PPP Patriots MNA Imranullah Chaudhry and PMA president Dr Zahid Mian, said the government was taking steps for the provision of better health facilities to the patients, but the shortage of doctors and medicine should be resolved.

They said as many as 25 rural health centres were running without in-charge doctors while the patients were suffering at the DHQ Hospital due to the shortage of doctors and other medical facilities. They suggested that the government should appoint qualified and expert doctors at rural health centres and the DHQ instantly.

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The city tehsil council will blacklist building contractors involved in using substandard material in the construction of uplift projects after holding an inquiry against them.

This was stated by city Nazim Babu Javed Ahmad at a meeting held at the Municipal Complex here the other day. The meeting reviewed the construction work of various projects and complaints regarding the use of substandard material by the contractors, and issued notices to them.

The meeting decided that earnest money of the contractors would be forfeited if they failed to complete the construction work within the stipulated period in accordance with the specification.

The city Nazim said all ongoing uplift projects would be got completed by the end of June, 2004. He asked union council Nazims and Naib Nazims to provide their development schemes instantly. He said the city tehsil council would fulfil its promises to the people for resolving their sanitation problems.

Formation of new districts

Kawish writes that after announcements made by the prime minister and the provincial chief minister, preparations are being made for formation of new districts in Sindh. According to the plan, Larkana district will be bifurcated and Qambar will be made a new district. Similarly, Dadu and Jacobabad districts will be divided and Kotri and Kandhkot will be made new districts.

The government claims that new districts are being created to improve the administrative system but people believe that the move is aimed at maintaining the influence of certain feudal lords/tribal chieftains in their areas.

The paper argues that the creation of a new district will require transfer/change of revenue and other records, setting up of new offices and recruitment of more staff, thus increasing financial burden. This may also result in mismanagement which may linger on for years.

The daily points out that Sindh is already in the grip of mismanagement and the creation of new districts will only worsen it. Saying that the government has not bothered to ascertain people's opinion on the issue, it advises the authorities to get in touch with masses and refrain from acting in haste.

Ibrat says that Sindh's development has remained an elusive dream with the lapsing of funds due to non-utilization within stipulated time having become a regular feature. The current fiscal year will also be no exception as the Sindh government is reported to have spent only Rs3.335 billion out of Rs11 billion of the annual development programme in nine months.

When government functionaries are asked about the causes, they cite different technical complications and obstacles. When will these technical complications be removed, asks the paper and says that due to lack of development, the backwardness of the province worsens with the passage of each year.

Awami Awaz takes up the plight of 22 employees who have been relieved by the Sindhi Adabi Board but not been provided jobs in the education department by the district coordination officer of Hyderabad.

It says that the decision to relieve the surplus staff of the board was taken at a meeting presided over by its chairman and Sindh Education Minister Irfanullah Marwat who had assured that the employees would be absorbed in the education department. Some of them have taken up new jobs but the fate of the 22 hangs in the balance and needs immediate attention of the minister.

Hilal-i-Pakistan hails the decision of the Sindh High Court to endorse the marriage of Shaista Almani and Balkhsher Mahar and allow them to live together. It terms the verdict a victory against outdated feudal customs which do not recognize the right of youth to marry at their own will.