On the bridge stands Pervez Musharraf, captain of a rebellious crew. His ship is making water; its bilges are full. Storm signals have been hoisted, heavy weather has been forecast ahead and astern. The engine telegraph is on 'Stand By'.

A cutter comes alongside, and Pilot George Bush and his apprentice, Tony Blair, embark. The heavy odds are discussed. The pilot can advise but the responsibility, as always, must rest with the Master of the ship. The Captain is aware of the capacity of his fickle advisers. As soon as they feel they have done enough, they are more than capable of forsaking him. He has the choice of ordering his ship to sail ahead or astern. He is decisive, he takes the risk, and pushes the telegraph to 'Full Ahead'. Some days later, those of his officers who have rebelled are lowered into a lifeboat and cast away.

Pakistan has to move forward.

Now we revert to Captain Basil Henry Liddell Hart's thesis, 'Why don't we learn from history?' (published posthumously, 1971) in which he elaborates on what dictators and men who have ridden in on horseback tend to do when they gain power:

"They soon begin to rid themselves of their chief helpers 'discovering' that those who brought about the new order have suddenly become traitors to it.

"They suppress criticism on one pretext or another and punish anyone who mentions facts which, however true, are unfavourable to their policy.

"They enlist religion on their side, if possible, or, if its leaders are not compliant, foster a new kind of religion subservient to their ends.

"They spend public money lavishly on material works of a striking kind, in compensation for the freedom of spirit and thought of which they have robbed the public.

"They manipulate the currency to make the economic position of the state appear better than it is in reality.

"They ultimately make war on some other state as a means of diverting attention from internal conditions and allowing discontent to explode outward.

"They abuse the rallying cry of patriotism as a means of riveting the chains of their personal authority more firmly on the people.

"They expand the superstructure of the state while undermining its foundations - by breeding sycophants at the expense of self-respecting collaborators by appealing to the popular taste for the grandiose and sensational instead of true values, and by fostering a romantic instead of a realistic view, thus ensuring the ultimate collapse, under their successors if not themselves, of what they have created.

"This political confidence trick, itself a familiar string of tricks, has been repeated all down the ages. Yet it rarely fails to take in a fresh generation."

General Ziaul Haq took over on July 5, 1977. On July 25, he called me and I had the pleasure of meeting him, of watching him puff himself up and twirl the ends of his moustache, so obviously dyed black (Is there some obscure army regulation that dictates that our generals and lesser officers must dye their hair black or brown or red?). When he told me that he intended to return to his barracks within the space of ninety days, he was reminded that the last general who had completely relinquished state power to return to his farm was General Lucius Quintus Cincinnatus, and that was in 458 BC. It was highly unlikely that he would prove to be a latter-day Cincinnatus.

Given time, Zia managed to cover each and every point on Liddell Hart's list. Had fate, our good fortune, or his adversaries, not intervened to have him fall from the skies, he may very well have still been with us today.

In contrast, so far, how has Musharraf conducted himself? He has had to jettison a few of his fundo helpers. He has not suppressed criticism. The press is free. He has neither enlisted religion on his side nor fostered a new kind of religion. He has not spent public money lavishly, one good reason being that his predecessors in power left nothing for him spend. He has not manipulated the currency, the dollar rises and falls freely. He has had no need to make war to divert attention; from the start, he has lived through one. He has, though, used a rallying cry of patriotism unsuccessfully in the form of his constant unstemmed stress on the 'national interest'. He has also chosen to opt for the realistic rather than the romantic view.

Pakistan cannot survive on rebellion, or on bigotry, or fundamentalism, or religiosity, or hypocrisy, or, importantly, terrorism. We have today a war raging internally in Pakistan with modernity, education, knowledge and science ranged against abject but dangerous ignorance and obscurantism.

Now to assess the chief protagonists and antagonists. Supreme Commander of the United States Armed Forces George W. Bush, born on July 6, 1946, was raised into politics. In 1994 he was elected governor of Texas with a 54 per cent majority and re-elected in 1998 with a 69 per cent majority. He was elected president of the United States with a 47.9 per cent majority in 2000 and was sworn in on January 20, 2001. His father, George, was president of the US from 1989 to 1993 and his grandfather, Prescott, was a US senator, a Republican from Connecticut. Brother Jeb is governor of Florida. Whether he is or not, his pedigree should make him an astute, devious political animal. He went to Yale, earned his B.A in 1968, went on to Harvard Business School and graduated as an MBA in 1975. Between 1968 and 1973 he was a pilot in the Texas Air National Guard.

From 1975 to 1986 he worked as the founder and chief executive officer of the Bush Exploration Oil and Gas Company. A sportsman, his great interest is in baseball. He was the managing general partner of the Texas Rangers professional baseball team (1989-1994). He did not know the name of the President of Pakistan until he became president of his own country, and prior to September 11, 2001, could not even pronounce the name Musharraf. He calls him 'Mush' for short which rhymes with his own name.

The supreme commander of the opposing force in this war against terrorism, Mullah Mohammad Omar, was born around 1959 in Nodeh, a village near Kandahar. He is a Hotak tribesman of the Ghilzai Pashtuns. He learnt his arts and sciences in a madressah in the North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan. He lost an eye in combat and is the proud husband of four wives. In school he was never taught the meaning of the word tolerance. He cannot conceive that another man can hold a view which differs from his particular view. According to Afghan scholar, Ahmed Rashid, some say that Omar was chosen as the Taliban leader not for his political or military ability but for his piety and his unswerving belief in Islam. Others maintain he was chosen by God. Says one of his followers, "We selected Mullah Omar to lead this movement. He was the first amongst equals and we gave him the power to lead us."

He and the Taliban took up arms "to achieve the aims of the Afghan jihad and save the people from suffering at the hands of the so-called Mujahideen." Omar has complete faith in God Almighty who can bless the Taliban with victory or plunge them into defeat. He has assumed the title of Ameerul Momineen, Commander of the Faithful, the first to have done so after Hazrat Umer some 1,400 years ago. His line of action is dependent on his visions, dreams, and voices from on high.

We have also had men who would have liked to proclaim themselves Ameerul Momineen - one was Mard-e-Momeen Mard-e-Haque Ziaul Haq, and another, Nawaz Sharif had he managed to push his 15th constitutional amendment through the Senate before he took on the might of the Pakistan army.

To add to Musharraf's troubles, our friends the Indians are making hostile noises, to quell which, Colin Powell, a retired general of the US army yet to prove himself as a politician, is visiting both India and Pakistan. Atal Behari Vajpayee, though not a general, should be capable of understanding that when he and his countrymen glibly talk of the 'Talibanization' of Pakistan he is ignoring the tedious and dangerous battle being fought by Musharraf to hold at bay the violent vocal extremist minority and keep them from making inroads. The demons Musharraf is struggling to contain will be India's demons should he fail.