Ever since Russia won the right to host the 2014 Winter Olympics, Putin has made clear that the Games are his pet project. Back in 2007 he wowed the International Olympic Committee in Guatemala with a speech in English and French. Some seven years — and $50bn later — the Games are ready. In February the eyes of the world will turn to the Black Sea resort of Sochi. It will be a moment of triumph for Putin, back in the Kremlin for a third time, unlikely to leave any time soon, and a swaggering figure on the world stage.

But in recent months several issues have threatened to take the shine off his image-boosting pageant. There has been growing international criticism of Putin’s post-2012 crackdown on human rights, the worst since the Soviet era. New Russian laws outlawing “gay propaganda” have created negative headlines from Stockholm to Seattle. And the arrest of 30 Greenpeace campaigners, after they boarded a Russian oil rig to draw attention to the plundering of the Arctic, has seen protests outside Russian embassies.

The wide-ranging amnesty law passed by the Russian parliament on Wednesday defuses some of this. It should see the Arctic 30 home in time for Christmas. Their trial on charges of hooliganism is likely to be shelved. Within a matter of days they should receive exit visas. The probable release of Pussy Riot’s Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, towards the end of their two-year sentences, will delight their many international fans.

Despite talk of a boycott, there will be no repeat of the 1980 Moscow Olympics, when the US refused to participate, or the Los Angeles Games four years later, the subject of a similar Soviet-led boycott. But at least four countries including France, Germany, the US, and Georgia have signalled they will not be sending top-level delegations to Sochi — a snub of sorts to Putin, and a repudiation of his anti-gay rhetoric.

On Tuesday the White House announced that Barack Obama, vice-president Joe Biden, and first lady Michelle Obama will not be attending. Nor will any ex-presidents. It is the first time since 2000 senior US leaders have been missing from an Olympic event. Instead the tennis great Billie Jean King will be one of two openly gay athletes representing the US for the opening and closing ceremonies. The delegation “represents the diversity that is the United States”.

Obama’s move is carefully calibrated. It signals US displeasure but stops short of a full-blown boycott that could escalate tensions with the Kremlin, at a time when Washington still badly needs Moscow’s help on Syria, Iran and other thorny international problems.

France’s Francois Hollande and Germany’s president, Joachim Gauck, have also announced they will skip Sochi. The French foreign ministry says there is no “political significance” to Hollande’s decision. “It’s a very simple matter. Only ministers attend the winter games. This isn’t a matter for the president,” a spokesman said.

Gauck — who visited the London games in 2012 — has not explicitly given his reasons and has said he will welcome German athletes on their return from Sochi at a reception in Munich. Chancellor Angela Merkel has not yet said if she will go.

These absences reflect western unease at the human rights situation in Russia generally. Since returning to the Kremin in 2012, Putin has presided over the worst clampdown on human rights since the Soviet period. The Duma has enacted new laws compelling non-governmental organisations that receive foreign funding to register as “foreign agents”. Opposition demonstrators who took part in anti-Putin protests face long stretches in jail.

Putin’s tough stance on gay rights is part of a wider political strategy to shore up the Kremlin’s conservative base. It follows opposition street protests which began in 2011-2012, largely centred on Moscow and led by the country’s restive middle classes.

All of this poses a dilemma for the British prime minister, David Cameron, who has not yet said whether he will attend the Sochi Olympics. Since taking office, Cameron and foreign secretary William Hague have engaged in a pragmatic attempt to “reset” relations with the Kremlin, which have been in the diplomatic freezer since the 2006 murder of Alexander Litvinenko. In May Cameron held talks with Putin at his summer residence in Sochi. Afterwards the prime minister announced that Britain would resume cooperation with Russia’s FSB spy agency, over the Winter Olympics. This was remarkable, given that British officials believe the FSB played a leading role in Litvinenko’s death.

Denis MacShane, the former Labour Europe minister, said on Wednesday that Cameron should make a principled stand and boycott Sochi. He admitted, however: “I’m not holding my breath”. Somehow Paris and Berlin seem to be able to speak out on human rights in Russia in a way that Cameron is frightened of.”

— By arrangement with the Guardian