Regional concerns

Published February 15, 2014

THERE was a time when a trilateral summit between Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan would spark much interest in various parts of the world and even create hope for some small or even large breakthrough in the intractable Pak-Afghan relationship. Those times are long gone. Here is a small sample of what is on the plate of each of the leaders who gathered at the eighth trilateral summit in Ankara on Thursday. For the Afghan leader: navigating a key presidential election in which there are no clear frontrunners and that can drag on till late summer possibly; securing President Karzai’s legacy and post-election relevance; and finalising a post-2014 agreement with the US that will see some foreign troops stay on in Afghanistan. For the Pakistani leadership: tamping down a violent domestic Islamist insurgency that is twisting the arm of the state as the state flounders to find a solution, even in the short term, to the violence. For the Turkish leadership: dealing with the Syrian crisis on its doorstep; a Middle East that has seen the hopes of the Arab Spring fade into something more dangerous and malign; and potentially arranging a swap of power at the top, with a struggling prime minister still perhaps aspiring to become Turkey’s first directly elected president with expanded powers.

So where does that leave the two central concerns of the Pak-Afghan relationship, ie reconciliation with the Afghan Taliban and curbing cross-border (from both sides) insurgent movement? At first blush, it would appear that those critical subjects could not have moved forward much. But then there were two other participants in Ankara who kept a lower profile: army chief Gen Raheel Sharif and DG ISI Gen Zahirul Islam. The presence of the two generals in Ankara suggests that behind closed doors some hard talk, and possibly bargaining, was done. At least on cross-border insurgency activities, there is more room for cooperation than there might appear to be at first.

Having long been at the receiving end of allegations from the Afghan side, Pakistan in recent years, and especially over the last year, has increasingly been the one levelling the allegations and showing frustration about what is happening in several areas of Afghanistan just across the Pak-Afghan border. The danger is that the Afghan side, new to this old game of proxies and turning a blind eye, may be overplaying its hand, particularly as Mr Karzai grows increasingly determined to be seen as the man who stood up for Afghan interests against all countries, big or small. With the senior Pakistani military leadership there in Ankara, perhaps the game of brinksmanship gave way to some understanding of why diplomacy is the preferred path to solving most problems.

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