There is not much of a view from Vijay Kumar’s home near Shadipur depot, west Delhi. He lives in one of the most deprived slums in the Indian capital, in a square mile of narrow lanes, teetering brick tenement homes and open sewers shared by 15,000 people. Yet Kumar’s ambitions have never been restricted by his circumstances.

Kumar, 22, is studying for exams for entry to the prestigious Indian Administrative Service — at least when there is power to run a light in the two rooms he shares with his parents and siblings. There are only 4,500 of these elite bureaucrats, and just a hundred or so new recruits each year. Kumar will be among up to 500,000 candidates.

“I want to be in the system and from within do something for my community and for my country,” he says. “To change things you need power. I am not interested in money but in doing something for India. This is the responsibility of my generation.”

Over the next six weeks more than half a billion Indians will go to 930,000 polling stations in the 16th general election since the country won independence from Britain in 1947. The impact of the 120 million first-time voters is hotly debated, but what is undisputed is that Kumar’s generation will decide their nation’s future.

First there are the demographics: a third of the population is under 15, more than half under 24; every third person in an Indian city is aged between 15 and 32; the median age in India is 27.

Then there is the wider story of present-day India. The growth that boosted incomes and reduced poverty has faltered in recent years. Traditional values and customs have given way to uncertainty. Much is changing, and the process of transition is traumatic for millions. India’s youth could be a “demographic dividend”, ensuring stability and prosperity for decades to come — or a disaster, condemning the country to years of deep social tensions.

Educational institutions are over-subscribed and under-resourced. Worse, perhaps, there is little guarantee of satisfactory employment whatever the investment of time and money. According to Indian government data, although growth averaged 8.7 per cent from 2005 to 2010, only 1m jobs were created, leaving 59m new entrants to the labour market with nothing.

Graduate unemployment can reach 30pc for women in rural areas. Even for men in towns, it is at least 17pc.

In the cities or towns, such stress is exacerbated by the failure of authorities to provide even basic public services. Power cuts are common. Potable water is rare. Food prices are rising, so are rents. Bribes have to be paid for school and college places, to the police, to petty officials to ensure they perform basic administrative tasks, even for hospital beds. If you have connections — to a doctor, a head teacher, a top bureaucrat, a police officer or, best of all, a politician — life can be much easier. But without, it is a struggle.

There is also violence. As elsewhere in the world, 18- to 25-year-olds in India are disproportionate victims, and perpetrators, of violence. So-called “honour killing” does not just involve parents, but siblings too.

Young women living more independent lives than their mothers suffer systematic sexual harassment, and sometimes assault, in public and, increasingly, in the workplace.

But young people say their generation is no longer prepared to accept their circumstances — and that alone is a major change. “I know hate is a strong word. But I hate people who sit at home and in an office and complain about the country. If we want change, then action is the only way forward,” said Palak Muchhal, 21, from Indore in Madhya Pradesh.

Muchhal, a professional singer, has raised more than Rs37m (400,000 pounds) to save the lives of more than 550 children with heart ailments.

Perhaps the greatest challenge for India’s often elderly policymakers lies in managing expectations.

B Narayanaswamy, of Ipsos Indica, a market research company, traces four generational shifts since 1947. In the early 1950s, patriotism and self-sacrifice were dominant, with young people wanting to be teachers. After the 1971 war with Pakistan and with the autocratic Indira Gandhi committed to a socialist programme, the most popular professions were in the military. By the early 1990s, there came an identity-based reaction to globalisation channelled and encouraged by a newly resurgent Hindu nationalist ideology. Finally, today, values are increasingly determined by urbanisation.

“The new sets of beliefs and behaviours are all urban. The jobs and the prospects are to be found in cities. There’s a big shift away from hierarchy, and feudal mindsets. Success is defined in economic terms — a salary, a car, a mobile. It’s more about a hand-up than a handout,” said Narayanaswamy.

Many say this is a generation for which doctrinaire arguments pitting socialism against capitalism or the developing world against the west — or even events such as the destruction of the Babri mosque in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, in 1991— have little, or at least less, relevance.

Pratap Bhanu Mehta, president of the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research think tank, says it is unlikely that young voters would vote as a bloc. “A lot of the old historical examples by which the parties used to discredit each other, probably, for good or bad, no longer have any resonance.

“Memories of the Emergency [a period of unrest in the mid-1970s], 1984 [anti-Sikh riots], all of that, which in a sense defined that ideological space, perhaps even around secularism and so forth, are not very big for these kids,” Mehta told the local Mint newspaper.

This explains why senior Bharatiya Janata Party officials believe their party’s message of economic reform and decisive leadership will appeal to a widespread desire for both solutions and “empowerment”.

Congress party strategists say their campaign leader Rahul Gandhi’s relative youth and their tradition of “pluralist secularism” will win over young people. Many young people are expected to vote for the Aam Aadmi Party, formed in 2012 to combat corruption and present a new transparent, accountable alternative to the established political groups.

The election commission — which hopes to see a turnout of more than 70pc in the polls — has been trying to motivate the young to vote.

In the capital, registered voters have increased in four months from 11.9m to 12.7m, with roughly 42pc of the newly enrolled voters in the 18-19 age group.

But some experts downplay the likelihood of any “youth revolution”. “There are some signs of a greater interest in politics compared with the past, but it’s marginal. There’s a lot of euphoria but any difference from the last election is likely to be purely demographic,” said Prof Sanjay Kumar, of the Centre for Developing Societies, Delhi. “At the very least there appears to be no sign of a lot of tension. That gives hope.”

—By arrangement with the Guardian.