ISLAMABAD: The National Economic Council (NEC) meets here on Thursday to approve a long-term development blueprint — Vision 2025 — for the country with an initial consolidated development programme of Rs1.310 trillion and economic growth rate of 5.1 per cent during the next financial year.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will preside over the meeting to be attended by chief ministers of the four provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan, the prime minister of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, the governor of Khyber Pakhtunkhawa and federal and provincial ministers for finance and development.

Under the vision, the government aims to achieve export target of $150 billion, transform Pakistan into an upper-middle income country, reduce multi-dimensional poverty level from 49pc at present to less than 20pc by 2025.

To achieve the vision, the maximum focus of public sector investment will be on promotion of small and medium enterprises, the higher education commission and knowledge economy to meet challenges of globalisation. The vision is based on seven priority pillars like the social sector, economic inclusive growth, the energy sector, productive development, collective governance, competitiveness and connectivity.

Long-term development blueprint likely to be approved today

The NEC is expected to approve a Rs1,175bn development programmes for federal (Rs525bn) and provincial (Rs650bn) governments, besides a Rs135bn expenditure by Wapda and the National Transmission and Dispatch Company from their own resources as recommended by the Annual Plan Coordination Committee early this week. Some increase in development allocations could not be ruled out if the prime minister and chief ministers find some fiscal space in their respective areas, an official said.

The meeting will also approve macro-economic annual plan for the next fiscal year, envisaging 5.1pc growth in gross domestic product, to be supported by a modest 3.3pc growth in agriculture, a respectable 6.8pc improvement in industrial output and 5.2pc growth in the services sector.

This will depend on better energy supplies, normal weather conditions, positive investor confidence and political stability, according to a working paper on annual plan 2014-15 available with Dawn.

The government will focus on three core areas – taxation, investment and export – for increasing growth.

Inflation is estimated to grow by 8pc, while investment is targeted at 15.7pc of GDP against current year’s 14pc. Fixed investment is estimated to grow to 14.1pc of GDP from current 12.4pc while national savings rate is expected to improve from 12.8pc of GDP this year to 14.2pc in 2014-15.

Trade deficit is estimated at $17.2bn on the basis of $27bn exports and $44bn imports, showing an increase of 5.8pc and 6.2pc, respectively. The current account deficit is projected at $2.8bn (1.1pc of GDP) against current year’s $2.6bn (1pc of GDP).

The NEC is also expected to issue guidelines for a uniform education standard and curriculum across the country and do away with more than 200 schemes launched on political basis or those facing repeated delays for more 7-8 years.

The meeting will issue directives to complete all projects with 70pc physical progress within a year and those having more than 50pc progress in two years. A total of 303 new projects with an estimated cost of Rs1.6trn will be made part of the PSDP.

The power sector is being given top priority with highest allocation of Rs260bn, apart from Rs135bn self-financing by Wapda and the NTDC. The transport and communication sector got the second priority position with an allocation of Rs163bn, including Rs114bn for the National Highway Authority and Rs40bn for rehabilitation and revival of Pakistan Railways.

Rs45bn would be allocated for Karachi-Lahore Motorway’s land acquisition whose construction will be undertaken on build, operate and transfer basis and the Chinese investment. The prime minister’s dream project – Pak-China Economic Corridor – will also be a major focus of development programme with an investment of about Rs51bn while new initiative of Rs36bn will be launched by the prime minister for national integration through reduction in development disparities.

Published in Dawn, May 29th, 2014