KARACHI: The biggest challenge for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to handle the economic problems at home, former ambassador Najmuddin A. Shaikh said while giving a talk at the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs on Friday.

The lecture was organised by the institute to examine the 2014 Indian elections and their impact on the relationship between India and Pakistan.

Before examining the strategic relations between the two neighbours, Mr Shaikh carried out detailed analyses of the political and economic fabric of India.

Modi, according to Mr Shaikh, and by extension the BJP, holds a clear majority the kind which has not been seen in India for more than two decades.

“He has a degree of authority that a prime minister has not enjoyed since 1984,” he said.

However, at the same time, they do not enjoy unfettered freedom, primarily because they are still a minority in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian parliament.

As a result it is imperative for them to be modulated in their policies and statements, and this lack of representation will most likely cause them to be more accommodating towards their opposition, Mr Shaikh believes.

A clear analytic tone was employed by Mr Shaikh when he pointedly acknowledged that Modi owed his success mostly to the part he played, as the chief minister, in the economic growth and progress of Gujarat.

His plan in the state was “minimum government, maximum governance” which allowed him to not only encourage development, but also contribute towards the alleviation of poverty.

Now that he is a prime minister, he wants to implement the same in the centre.

Major questions that crop up in the wake of the Indian elections include: Modi’s ability to tackle instability in the region, his forging better relations with his neighbours, his attempts to take India to the next level with regards to economic development, and his ability to more sensitively deal with the communal and social unrest in the country.

Mr Shaikh tried to address all these questions, and more, in a compact yet well-researched discourse. He shed light on Modi’s strong suit of image projection that he has cultivated ever since in the political arena, and also how one of his first steps will probably be to rope in “western societies for technology and capital for economic development in India”.

In his many years as chief minister of Gujarat, Modi was never accused of corruption, and his supposed “incorruptibility will be reinforced in the central government”. It is interesting to note that despite being held responsible for the 2002 inter-communal violence and riots in Gujarat, the accusation has been just a small blight on Modi’s political mandate, which is why Mr Shaikh stressed on how Modi needs to tread more lightly on issues that may cause widespread dissent.

This is also pertinent since the proposed repealing of Article 370 of the Indian constitution — that gives a measure of autonomy to the troubled northern state of Jammu and Kashmir that borders Pakistan — has taken many by surprise and garnered spirited debate and criticism.

Speaking of Modi’s attitude towards, and rumoured stance on, Pakistan in the months to follow, Mr Shaikh was of the opinion that it may still be an extension of his various “muscular statements he has made in the past”.

Within a few days of his inauguration, a strong message has been sent forth regarding issues such as terrorism and bomb blasts. The tone of these has raised concerns within Pakistan. “Composite dialogue”, according to Mr Shaikh needs to be resumed, “that had been discontinued since the 2008 Mumbai bombings”.

Also, the subjects that will be talked about need to be clearly demarcated, as to which ones should be discussed by the foreign secretaries, and which should be discussed on a political level. He suggested that the backchannel talks on Kashmir, common during the time of president Pervez Musharraf, may be resumed, but its benefits need to be debated on before.

Mr Shaikh also spoke about the non-discriminatory market access deal that has been on the table in a bid to normalise trade between the two neighbours. However, despite its apparent benefits, he did stress that it might have a negative effect on public perception and opinion.

In the question answer session the water crisis issue was asked to be addressed to which Mr Shaikh very candidly replied that the volume of water has not declined since the Indus Water Treaty but the availability has.

This is primarily because of internal failings rather than any other external force being in play. He emphasised on how a large percentage of water in both Punjab and Sindh especially was being wasted due to factors such as salinity, lack of meters and modules, and no lining of canals.

Published in Dawn, May 31th, 2014