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THE criticism of rabble-rousers aimed at our dysfunctional state and the pigheaded PML-N government is not disagreeable. It is their anarchic solutions that are problematic. You can’t expect anything better from the Tahirul Qadris or the Chaudhrys. Long past their prime these creations of a pro-status quo state have no chance of acquiring meaningful power through the electoral process. Their destructive politics is thus their best bet.
But Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf’s (PTI) flirtation with the anarchists is worrying. Here is a party that after a decade and a half of determined effort has emerged as the second largest party in terms of popular vote. It was censured for welcoming recycled hags into its fold. The PML-N alleged that Gen Shuja Pasha had breathed new life into it. But despite such criticism or lack of control over entrenched mechanisms of state patronage (thana, kacheri and patwari), the party did exceedingly well and became the lead opposition party in its first nationwide election in 2013.
True, barriers to entry into politics remain sky-high. But the PTI persevered despite the absence of a level playing field. For it to argue that no one can take on the PML-N machine and machinations due to the PML-N’s stranglehold over state machinery smacks of anger and impatience. While the anger is probably justified, the impatience is not. The business of politics is like a marathon and not a sprint. Threatening to throw its hands up and walk out of the ‘system’ if X or Y doesn’t happen in Z time frame bodes ill for the PTI and the country.
The system is not worth preserving, but is worth reforming and saving. If there is one lesson that history keeps repeating, it is that the ends don’t justify the means. Salvaging Pakistan is as much about process as it is about destination. An illegitimate process can’t produce just ends. The present refrain against patience and continuity is not new. All coups have come with declarations that the skies are caving in, continuity of process is producing more harm than good and breaking things down is the best way to build true democracy.
The PTI’s flirtation with the anarchists is worrying.
The political pawns whose actions led to the overthrow of governments and constitutions past were never the beneficiaries. Iskander Mirza survived all but 20 days after imposing martial law in October 1958 before Gen Ayub Khan took over and exiled him to London. The nine-member Pakistan National Alliance caused the dismissal of the Bhutto government but it was Gen Ziaul Haq who devoured the cake. Nothing became of the political parties or the principles they were striving for, including free and fair elections.
Tahirul Qadri has the support of a hundred thousand strong he can usher to the streets at will and bring the business of government to a screeching halt. In a country of 190 million, bringing out a mob of just 50,000 might be enough to shut down the government. But it is not enough to replace such government. Thus, the only thing TUQ is capable of delivering is rhetoric or mobs that can engender chaos and anarchy. What he can’t deliver is a functional system of governance.
Anytime there is chaos on the streets, the initiative slips from the hands of the politicos into those of the khakis. History suggests that in such situations, whatever may have been the promises, those who cultivate the environment congenial for the khakis to step in end up being seen as liabilities. TUQ appears to be baiting the khakis and hoping that raised temperatures on the streets, growing public anger against the government, and worsening civ-mil ties might just throw up an opportunity for him to ride khaki tailcoats into power.
His approach is rational because at 63 this ruthlessly ambitious televangelist has no other play. If the khakis bite, he will promise to deliver the stars. Devoid of mass public support but just enough to bring together a crowd in Punjab, he will always be dependent on his patrons and thus a less threatening option. If the khakis don’t bite, he’ll pack up his 12 suitcases (and socks) and head back to Canada as he did after his failed effort in December 2012. For Imran Khan and the PTI, the stakes are altogether different.
From a real politick perspective the street agitation approach to change will produce no dividends for the PTI. Our Constitution doesn’t provide for mid-term polls, except when the prime minister or a chief minister decides to dissolve the respective assembly. In the absence of a legal mechanism, mid-term change in Islamabad and Punjab can only be unconstitutional and dependent on military intervention in politics which happens only if the personal ambition of top generals is whetted, after which they don’t act to empower others.
The Egyptian model is before us. A revolution threw out Mubarak with the military as a bystander. When the popularly elected Morsi government grew too big for its boots the military threw it out. Now Gen Sisi is the ‘elected’ president. The Iraqi model is even scarier. Getting rid of Saddam and his institutional structures was easy. Building new institutions to fill the vacuum was not. With the emergence of ISIS and its bid to take over state territory, the initiative has slipped into the hands of sectarian radicals on both sides.
We have witnessed the law of unintended consequences in action in our own backward Fata. Bringing down structures of authority is much easier than replacing them with new ones. Notwithstanding one’s differences with the PTI over national security policy, this party is a force for constructive change in Pakistan. It is not an entity that needs to ride on khaki tailcoats to seek power or one that fits the bill of a subservient joint-venture partner to an ambitious general.
The PML-N will not change, embrace electoral reform or build institutions for non-partisan accountability unless it is forced to. But such force must now be exerted by the PTI as an insider that has a stake in reviving the system and not as an outsider opting for chaos as the preferred alternative.
The writer is a lawyer.
Twitter: @babar_sattar
Published in Dawn, June 30th, 2014
