ISTANBUL: A quick glance at the emerging candidates for Turkey’s first direct presidential poll illustrates the dramatic change wrought in the country by Tayyip Erdogan’s 11-year premiership; an old secularist elite has yielded the stage to two men of Islamist pedigree and a third from a long-suppressed Kurdish minority.

Prime Minister Erdogan, his popularity unscathed by a flare-up of anti-government riots and a corruption scandal, is widely expected to announce his presidential bid on Tuesday (today) for August elections that could further strengthen his hold on power.

Many see his victory as inevitable. Since his AK party came to power in 2002, he has built huge support among conservative Muslims, many of them poor, who had felt treated as second-class citizens in a secular society.

Rather than taboo, religion is now a front-and-centre political issue. The notion of a secularist president has become politically toxic for many of Turkey’s 77 million citizens. So much so that Turkey’s foremost secularist party, the CHP, the party of secular state founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, and the nationalist MHP have chosen as joint nominee Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, a diplomat and academic who was at the helm of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation for nine years until 2014.

The choice of Ihsanoglu — who has dedicated a large part of his life to promoting Islam — has drawn fierce criticism from some die-hard secularists within CHP, with several refusing to sign his formal nomination. In his first remarks on being proposed, Ihsanoglu was quick to emphasise the importance of separating state and religion.

After nearly a decade heading the world’s second largest international organisation representing 1.5 billion people across the Muslim world, 70-year-old Ihsanoglu’s diplomatic and religious credentials are hardly in question. But Aykan Erdemir, a deputy for CHP, insists he is not a pale imitation of the firebrand Erdogan, but rather a credible alternative for millions of pious Turks. “To me he is the exact opposite of Erdogan, pluralist versus majoritarian, a conciliator versus a loud and populist zealot. We have a genuine choice between a liberal or an authoritarian president,” he said.

Analysts say that Ihsanoglu represents a return to the politically secular and liberal values, underpinned by religion, that AKP espoused when it first came to power.

Murat Yetkin, of the liberal Radikal newspaper, says the decision by CHP and MHP to field Ihsanoglu as a joint candidate means they will be entering Erdogan’s “backyard”. Ihsanoglu’s unimpeachable reputation might make it more difficult for Erdogan and his supporters to launch political attacks. “A potential defamation campaign against Ihsanoglu, who is known for his gentlemanly character, may not find supporters even in AK Party’s base,” Yetkin said.

Polls indicate that if as expected Erdogan is confirmed as the AKP candidate on Tuesday, his rivals will have a mountain to climb even to force him to a second round, with polls giving him around 55 per cent of the vote and a twenty point lead. But if Erdogan does dip below the required 50 per cent needed to avoid a run-off, Turkey’s Kurdish minority, an estimated 15-20 per cent of the population, could decide his fate.

Efforts to end decades of conflict between the government and Kurdish militants have played a key role in Erdogan’s premiership, leading to a ceasefire last year, and a slackening of draconian laws on Kurdish language and culture. Erdogan took a considerable political risk, not least with the military, in opening talks with the Kurdistan Workers Party. Analysts say roughly half of all Kurds already vote for AKP and many more will likely follow suit in the belief that Erdogan offers the best hope of a lasting peace settlement.

Speculation that the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) might tacitly throw its weight behind Erdogan in the first round by naming either a weak candidate or no candidate at all has not materialised however, with HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas, 41, putting his hat in the ring as party candidate. “He’s a serious candidate, and if his supporters vote for him, that’s a six or seven per cent chunk of the vote whose destination is already known. They want space for negotiating with Erdogan between the first and second rounds,” according to a political science professor.—Reuters

Published in Dawn, July 1st , 2014