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When politicians argue over the minutiae of the law, you can bet what they’re really squabbling about is politics.
It is not — and should not be — that hard to quit parliament. The procedure in place is meant to safeguard against a different kind of resignation: the forced variety.
But not the forced variety that the PML-N is alleging; the procedure in place is to prevent a party from trying to get rid of an MNA the party is unhappy with for some or the other illegitimate reason.
The PML-N is not trying to bribe PTI MNAs into staying in parliament. But the PML-N knows that few of the PTI MNAs really want to quit.
Yes, the PTI — Imran, really — is unhappy with several of its MNAs: the ones who aren’t resigning. But Imran isn’t trying to get any of the defiant MNAs chucked out of parliament, so what’s the problem?
Back to politics. To begin with, there are several categories of PTI MNAs.
Also read: Fate of PTI resignations remains undecided as deadline passes
The electables Imran roped in last year know the cardinal rule of electoral politics: never leave the field open to your opponent. For constituency politicians, quitting your seat and sitting on the sidelines is a form of political suicide.
They aren’t happy to be quitting. Some have point-blank refused to. But some are quitting because, well, they are gambling that sticking with Imran will keep them in the electoral game.
Then there are the one-off MNAs, the ones who won because Imran was the Great Pakistani Hope in May 2013 and it was his popularity that carried them to unexpected wins.
They too aren’t thrilled about being asked to quit, but their stars are hitched to Imran’s and where he goes, they must follow.
After them are the troublemakers: the PTI MNAs who didn’t win. The chaps who lost in 2013 are the ones with the most to gain by getting PTI to quit parliament.
Anything that remotely looks like it could force another general election and give the PTI losers another bite at the MNA apple is worth trying.
Also read: Acceptance of PTI resignations may lead to mid-term polls: leaders
And after the troublemakers are the few — the very, very, very few — who are willing to give the boss the benefit of the doubt because, well, he’s the boss and it doesn’t make sense to question a man who is arguably the country’s most famous politician and carried a non-party to a second-place finish just last year.
In none of those categories is there an actual MNA resignation that can — or should — be delayed. But none of the PTI MNAs stand formally resigned yet.
Enter the PML-N.
The PML-N is not, as the PTI is alleging, really trying to bribe PTI MNAs into staying in parliament. But the PML-N knows that few of the PTI MNAs really, really want to quit.
So why not delay the process and see if something changes, whether internally or externally for the PTI, to make Imran change his mind?
You can see why the PML-N would prefer the PTI remain in the assembly rather than opt out.
Legality and constitutionality of the present parliament notwithstanding, a National Assembly without the party that polled the second-highest number of votes in the general election would erode the political legitimacy of parliament.
But, as with everything PML-N of late, you can’t help but feel that it’s less strategy and more smallness that’s driving the PML-N’s political responses. Because Imran wants the PTI to quit, the PML-N is determined to make it as difficult as it can for the PTI to quit.
Maybe if Imran had said he wanted the PTI to stay in parliament and fight the system from inside, the PML-N would have jeered Imran and tried to hound him into withdrawing the PTI from parliament.
If Imran wants it, the PML-N will oppose it; if Imran dreams it up, the PML-N will shoot it down — that’s what the PML-N seems to have reduced itself to.
Ultimately, what’s really the problem for the PML-N if 25 or so by-elections are held in a couple of months’ time in constituencies vacated by the PTI?
Every single one of those seats is in the PTI column right now. If the PTI wins back every single one of those seats, via independent candidates backed by the party, it would only go back to its present position in parliament.
Also read: ‘ECP has nothing to do with PTI resignations’
But if the PTI were to lose even a few of those seats, it would look like the party and Imran’s popularity are down. Plus, the provincial breakdown of the PTI seats — just a handful in Punjab, but a big chunk in KP — skews things against the PTI.
Lose a few seats in KP, home to the only PTI government, and the party would look like it’s in trouble with the electorate; win again all its seats in Punjab and they’d still be too few to argue the PML-N is in real trouble.
Also, they are only by-elections; people forget about them quickly enough. Anyone outside NA-149 still talking about Hashmi’s defeat?
And fate has anyway got a little surprise in store for the PTI: the Senate elections next March. The KP assembly will get to elect 11 senators — the same KP Assembly where the PTI has already defied Imran. You can’t imagine them giving up on a chunk of 11 juicy senatorships quite so easily.
Which would take the PTI into the upper house for the first time, offsetting its official absence from the lower house.
So let the PTI quit now and just get on with it? Maybe not — Imran would still be running around the country denouncing parliament.
But if the PML-N isn’t letting the PTI quit, it seems gloriously unconcerned with giving the PTI MNAs something to convince Imran they should stay.
And so, on and on — and on some more — the endless tale of PML-N v PTI goes.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, November 2nd, 2014
