RAWALPINDI/ISLAMABAD: The government and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) are currently embroiled in a verbal war over the protesting party’s planned demonstration in the capital on Nov 30. Both sides are standing their ground and there has been much posturing by leaders on both sides.

Imran Khan has been relentless in his campaign to mobilise support for the demonstration and promises to make it a landmark one. The government in general, and Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan in particular, have been equally vocal, insisting that Mr Khan and his party have to play by the rules or face the might of the state.

Also read: PTI won’t be allowed to hold its Nov 30 rally at D-Chowk, says Nisar

But behind the public shows of confidence, there seems to be an underlying uncertainty on both sides. Among government circles, opinion is divided between those who want to give the PTI space and those who don’t. This is evidenced by the government’s rapidly changing stance, saying on one hand that PTI will be allowed to protest peacefully, but at the same time insisting that they will not be allowed to succeed.

Apart from the PTI itself, the main stakeholders in the rally include the federal and Punjab governments, the capital administration and law enforcement agencies, as well as the citizens who plan to make their way to Islamabad on Nov 30. However, it seems that none of these stakeholders has a clear idea of what to expect on the day and have no concrete strategy figured out so far.

Capital police and admin

After the Aug 30 violence on Constitution Avenue, Islamabad police have been quite wary of large crowds and are conscious that they are ill-equipped to deal with a potentially explosive situation if they do not receive clear orders from the top.

“The government has obviously not learned from its past mistakes,” a police officer told Dawn, referring to the lack of clear-cut instructions from the state on how to deal with PTI supporters and how to respond if they become violent.

When protesters last stormed Constitution Avenue, police were helpless in the face of the advancing mob because they did not have clear instructions to retaliate. There is also still no clear account of how violence broke out that night or who gave the order to charge the mob that was trying to breach sensitive buildings. A case against police officers is still pending in court and testifying before a judge, several police officers have said there was no official record of the order that green-lighted police action against demonstrators on Aug 30.

Given this troubled past, it comes as no surprise that Islamabad police are being extra careful. Negotiations between the PTI and the capital’s administration are ongoing: PTI insists that they will congregate at D-Chowk, where Imran Khan’s container already resides, while the administration led by Deputy Commissioner Mujahid Sherdil is trying its best to offer them an alternative venue. PTI has already turned down offers to hold its rally at Zero Point, F-9 Park, Kashmir Highway and Aabpara.

Containers have already been placed around D-Chowk in anticipation of a build-up of supporters there. Although there have been reports that the government might outlaw entry into the Red Zone through an ordinance, these have been denied officially by Presidency as well as the PM’s Spokesperson.

A senior administration official told Dawn that the government had not yet issued clear directives on what they wanted to do with the protesters. “We are still negotiating the venue and that will probably decide whether the government will allow the rally to take place or try to curb it,” he said.

“We are fulfilling police requests for containers and have sent for additional manpower, including paramilitary troops,” he said. However, he was quick to add that they were just responsible for ensuring that everything was in place and stressed that deciding what to do with that manpower was up to the government.

“We are prepared to deal with them and have begun refresher training courses for our personnel,” a police officer told Dawn. But in the absence of clear cut instructions, their hands are tied. “We are not policy makers, the lines are always drawn by the government. The police and the administration can only carry out their orders,” he said.

Police officers also have a hard time rationalising their actions to themselves. A number of officials reportedly refused to use force against unarmed protesters and the reins of the capital’s police changed many hands before finally settling in the hands of SSP Asmatullah Junejo, ostensibly due to differences between top officials and the relevant government functionaries on how to deal with the protesters.

PTI’s plans

For its part, the PTI appears committed to going ahead with its major show. Dr Arif Alvi, member of the party’s core committee, told Dawn that in case the government tried to prevent supporters from getting to D-Chowk, “they (the government) will be responsible for the clash and its repercussions.

Party insiders say that they are preparing for all contingencies. Recent internal troubles at the party’s Rawalpindi chapter have also forced them to rethink their strategy and organisers are said to be focusing more on bringing large swathes of supporters in from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa than relying on leaders from nearby districts in Punjab.

Mr Alvi was quite cynical. “The PML-N governments – at the centre and in Punjab – will no doubt use every trick in the book to try and flop the Nov 30 gathering,” he said, adding that the party was charged and ready to weather whatever challenges were thrown their way.

Sources within the party told Dawn that supporters may be asked to travel in large groups so they are able to overpower any attempts to block their path towards the capital.

But local party leaders are already complaining of harassment. PTI MPA Arif Abbasi told Dawn, “More than 100 party workers have complained that police had visited their neighbourhoods and collected particulars of their family members and businesses. However, no arrests have been made yet.”

Acting District President Ijaz Khan Jazi said that although the party had launched its mobilisation campaign, the local administration and police were trying to pressure people not to attend by threatening them with arrest.

Punjab govt

The provincial government is staying tight-lipped about its plans ahead of the Nov 30 gathering, but a senior official told Dawn that the government had decided not to allow PTI workers and supporters to enter Islamabad from Punjab.

“On August 14, our plans were made public. But this time, we are keeping them secret and will wait until the day of the event to put our plan into action.

He said that Special Branch had furnished police with a list of around 400 PTI leaders and workers from District Rawalpindi, who may be detained ahead of the rally. Even though the total number of office-bearers and active party workers in the district is more than 5,000, police will be focusing their energies on those who are responsible for transportation.

The list, he said, had four categories. The first included PTI MPAs, the second consisted of district-level office-bearers, the third featured tehsil-level office-bearers while active workers were part of the fourth category.

“The Punjab government has decided it will not arrest those in the first category, but it will go after everyone else,” he said.

There are also clear indications that the government may seal off Islamabad ahead of the rally. The Rawalpindi Development Authority (RDA) has asked contractors working on the metro bus project to have five days’ worth of construction materials available from Nov 26 onwards to prevent stoppages due to the closure of roads.

“Roads leading into the capital from Rawat and Tarnol might be closed off, which is likely to affect the pace of work,” a senior RDA official said.

Rawalpindi Commissioner Zahid Saeed, who is also the metro bus project director, said, “We have asked our contractors to get in enough supplies and material for four or five days, by Nov 26, in case of any eventuality”.

However, he did not let on what the government’s plans were with regards to the rally itself, only saying the provincial government would announce what it planned to do in the next few days.

“The government wants clear assurances from the PTI that it will remain peaceful,” he concluded.

Published in Dawn, November 24th , 2014