WHILE oil may have triggered many of the conflicts of the 20th century, many believe that this century’s wars will mostly be over water. Four years ago, many in Pakistan feared that India was bent on denying water due to us under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. In 2010, Pakistan went into a partly successful appeal before international arbitrators to halt the construction of the Indian Kishanganga hydroelectric dam across the Neelum River in Kashmir.

In the heated rhetoric that accompanied this legal action, media pundits and TV chat room ‘experts’ denounced the treaty as a ‘sell-out’ by Ayub Khan. However, the real danger to our water security comes not from India but China. For most of us, Tibet barely registers on our radar, and events there may as well be taking place on Mars. We are vaguely aware of its claims to independence and China’s brutal suppression of these aspirations.

What we are unaware of is the region’s crucial role in supporting life in the Subcontinent. Home to 37,000 glaciers, Tibet is described as the ‘third pole’ as it contains the world’s third largest ice deposits after the Arctic and the Antarctic. In the summer, the melt-off from these glaciers provides the water that feeds five major delta systems in China as well as in South and South-East Asia: the Indus in Pakistan; the Ganges-Brahmaputra in India and Bangladesh; the Irrawaddy in Myanmar; the Mekong in Southeast Asia; and the Yangtze in China.

Although the world has been largely unaware of China’s exploitation of the Tibet plateau, there has been an unrelenting move to settle Han Chinese there to dilute the numbers of native Tibetans. Forests have been cut down, and minerals — specially rare ones like lithium — have been mined. And now there are reports of grandiose plans to divert water from Tibet to China.

Already, China has completed the Three Gorges Dam, a mighty engineering project that has stoked controversy in and out of the country. Although it is the world’s largest hydroelectric dam, producing 22,500 MW, it has displaced 1.3 million people, increased the risk of landslides, and endangered a number of aquatic and animal species. Much of the sediment that flowed down to Shanghai is now blocked.

Given China’s pressing need for more water and electricity, it should not surprise us that it should seek fresh sources, no matter how distant. And keep in mind that it has not signed any water-sharing agreement with its downstream neighbours who depend on the annual flows from the Tibetan Plateau.

Currently, China is building three large hydroelectric dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. As it flows downstream, it becomes the Brahmaputra that sustains life in large parts of India and Bangladesh. Obviously, such a major change is bound to sound alarm bells in both countries. By this diversion of the river’s course, China hopes to feed a dying Yellow River.

It is true that China’s need for water is insatiable: a largely arid country that is industrialising rapidly, it needs vast amounts of water to sustain its factories as well as its farms. And the fact that its previous president, Hu Jintao, was a hydrological engineer might have something with the dam-building frenzy. But clearly, countries in the region that depend on the same precious water from Tibet have cause for alarm.

It would appear obvious that there is good reason for regional cooperation to address this crucial issue. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan are all in the same boat, so one would have expected this item to have been the first one on the recently concluded Saarc meeting’s agenda. But given the conflicts that have rendered the regional body moribund, it was no surprise that this challenge to our collective water security was not discussed.

Many in Pakistan, and especially those in the defence establishment, cite the fear of our rivers being diverted by India as the reason for our fixation on Kashmir. But our own experts have said on the record that India has thus far honoured the Indus Waters Treaty, even if it has stretched the definition of ‘run-of-the-river’. In fact, it is remarkable that despite decades of tension and several wars, the treaty has still survived.

Shrill voices on both sides of the border have called for it to be scrapped, but this would be madness. In fact, such a suicidal move would be a sure formula for endless bickering and armed conflict. Given the fact that both countries are witnessing a steep rise in population and the demand for water, we need to focus on more efficient utilisation, as well as greater cooperation to address the threat of reduced flows from Tibet.

As global warming causes greater disruption in our weather pattern, and rainfall becomes less reliable, we need to stop wasting the water we do get from our rivers. Already, Pakistan is among the most water-stressed countries in the world with only a thousand cubic metres of water available per head annually. Many of our rivers are polluted and our underground aquifers are being depleted at an alarming rate.

There could scarcely be a graver threat to our future, and yet politicians and planners across South Asia seem oblivious to it. Unless all the countries in the region sit down and discuss the problem, it will not go away on its own.

Published in Dawn, December 1st, 2014