George Osborne’s trademark historical reference in this Budget was an old RAF bunker whose restoration he will fund. The chancellor may need that bolt-hole. Cutting corporation tax to 18pc by 2020 will be seen as an act of economic warfare by some in the US, Germany and France, where headline rates are 30pc or above.
A barrage of criticism of the UK as a tax haven will probably ensue.
British business will in contrast be delighted that the primary tax will be as low as, or lower than, such economic heavyweights as Belarus and the Czech Republic; the typical rate paid after reliefs should be close to 16pc.
Companies have always repudiated economists’ argument that they smoothly pass on tax costs to individuals. Mr Osborne likes to put a big surprise in every Budget: this time it was a further cut in a rate no one had expected, aimed squarely at bolstering the pro-business credentials of the Tories.
That could seem brave at a time when bankers are still the subject of public odium and energy companies have only recently ceased to be public enemy number two. But the lesson of the electoral collapse of the Labour party, whose manifesto contained something for every industrial sector to dislike, was that the British do not hate business: they are merely ambivalent towards it.
Mr Osborne bore that in mind when he prefaced plans to roll back the bank levy by stressing the value of financial services to regional capitals. Nor will the Treasury end up out of pocket. The corporation tax cut amounts to a £6.5bn giveaway to companies over five years, albeit with a slightly larger cash flow cost imposed on big companies through earlier payment. In contrast, trimming the bank levy slowly while supplementing it with an 8pc surcharge on bank corporation tax from the new year will, in contrast, increase the Treasury’s tax take by £1.6bn over the period.
The reforms are intended to make banks such as HSBC and Standard Chartered think twice about relocating to Asia, where they do the bulk of their business. The banking levy is distortive and unfair because it is imposed on the worldwide assets of UK headquartered banks. The banking surcharge is distortive and unfair because it targets one industry over others. Forcing banks to bear a heavy burden from both for a while is a funny way for the chancellor to show the era of bank-bashing is over.
The British do not hate business: they are merely ambivalent towards it
He aimed a better-justified kick at managers of private equity and hedge funds. He plans to block loopholes that allow some to avoid tax entirely on ‘carried interest’, as their share of the proceeds of company sales is called. According to Blick Rothenberg, an accountancy firm, they would pay 28pc instead. Making them shell out income tax of 45pc like other high earners would have been better. The One Nation invoked by Mr Osborne’s Toryism remains distinctly skewed towards the 1pc.
Geographically, the chancellor is more Chiltern Firehouse than Northern Powerhouse. His regional development plans depend heavily on costless measures, such as devolving powers and a risible rebrand of the A1 north of Leeds to ‘M1’. The small manufacturers of the Midlands and north will be more impressed by a plan permanently to fix the annual investment allowance — temporarily raised to £500,000 — at £200,000 rather than slashing it to £25,000 as originally planned. The allowance lets them write off equipment purchases against profits.
Mr Osborne’s policy costings ran to a dismaying two-and-a-half pages of the Red Book. This was hardly laissez faire in inaction. Money-spinners included raising insurance premium tax to a stiff 9.5pc and increasing the tax the wealthy pay on dividends, a blow to some entrepreneurs. What was missing was deregulating zeal. The chancellor appears to have bottled his post-electoral opportunity to make genuinely bold reforms — for example, by dismantling planning controls to deflate house prices and extend property ownership.
William Pitt the Younger, another historical touchstone cited recently by the chancellor, raised taxes to wage war. Mr Osborne is slashing benefits and trimming corporation tax with the same intention. His mission is to push back the frontiers of a state that overspilled its boundaries during the New Labour years and remained larger than Tories would have liked thanks to banking bailouts and coalition government. This Budget nominated business as a partner in that endeavour. Company bosses should feel some sympathy for Mr Osborne every time criticism of him forces him to retreat to his bunker. He could be down there a lot.
Published in Dawn,Economic & Business ,July 13th, 2015
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