THE suicide blast outside the offices of the political administrator in Jamrud, Khyber Agency on Tuesday broke the relative calm in that particular tehsil of the agency this year.

Even otherwise, since the military quietly wrapped up Operation Khyber-II in mid-June, having ejected militants from Bara tehsil and the Tirah subdivision and secured two of three passes linking the Tirah valley to Afghanistan, the agency has been fairly secure.

Yet, the suicide bombing may be part of an emerging pattern that can be traced to an increase in IED attacks in the Mohmand and Bajaur agencies and an uptick in attacks on members of so-called pro-state peace committees.

Also read: Four killed, 56 injured in Jamrud suicide attack

The most likely candidate for orchestrating the recent attacks is the Ahrar faction of the banned TTP, which is believed to have found sanctuary on the Afghan side of the border. That the military operations in the upper reaches of Fata, and indeed in North Waziristan Agency too, have dislodged militants and caused them to flee to Afghanistan is not really news.

The new aspect may be the effect that the deteriorating Pak-Afghan relationship is having on the ability of anti-Pakistan militants to hide in Afghanistan and strike inside Pakistan.

Has the nosedive in Pak-Afghan relations, the increasing hawkishness on display in Kabul when it comes to Pakistan and a sense of pessimism that the bilateral relationship won’t stabilise anytime soon contributed directly or indirectly to the uptick in militant violence in parts of Fata?

Put simply, are the Afghan authorities either turning a blind eye to or possibly encouraging attacks in Fata to retaliate to the surge in bombings and attacks inside Afghan?

Tit-for-tat attacks are not unheard of in the region and it does appear that they may be at play once again. If that is indeed the case, great caution — and an even greater degree of frank discussions — will be needed to help stabilise the Pak-Afghan relationship and clamp down on cross-border militant movements.

Caution is necessary because it is all too easy for another round of damaging accusations and recriminations to break out in public. Frank talk is needed if the two countries are going to be able to address their respective security concerns.

As the dust appears to settle around the collapse of talks between the Afghan Taliban and Kabul, it has become increasingly clear that fundamental issues between Pakistan and Afghanistan were not addressed, let alone resolved. That mistake must not be repeated going forward. 

Published in Dawn, September 3rd, 2015

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